Georgia looks set to continue following a tricky path between East and West, as the country’s ruling party Georgian Dream came out top in the first round of parliament elections on Oct. 8.
Georgian Dream won the elections with 48.7 percent of the vote, the country’s Central Election Commission said on Oct. 11.
Ex-Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili’s United National Movement was the runner-up with 27.1 percent, while the pro-Russian ultranationalist Alliance of Georgian Patriots got over 5 percent, passing the threshold required for being elected.
However, the results may still change after a second round of voting is held in 50 single-member voting districts, which is to end by Nov. 2. In the 150-seat Georgian parliament, 73 members are elected in single-member districts, and 77 are elected through party lists.
The United National Movement could still have a majority in parliament if two other parties, the Georgia Republican Party and the Free Democrats, get elected in the second round and team up with it.
“It’s still not clear who will win,” Georgian political analyst Solomon Lebanidze told the Kyiv Post.
But Bacho Korchilava, who was the Georgian embassy’s spokesman in Ukraine under Saakashvili’s presidency, told the Kyiv Post the United National Movement’s defeat in the first round was due to weariness with Saakashvili’s reforms.
“(Saakashvili’s economy minister) Kakha Bendukidze once said: ‘After 10 years of active reforms people would get tired of us and they would take a rest for 10 more years after that,’” Korchilava told the Kyiv Post.
One of the implications of the election results for Kyiv is that Georgia is unlikely to antagonize Russia, which has invaded Ukraine and occupied Crimea and part of the Donbas.
The Georgian Dream is likely to continue its current course – combining pro-Western rhetoric with improving relations with the Kremlin. Unlike the Georgian Dream, Saakashvili’s United National Movement is staunchly anti-Russian.
“Improving relations with Russia is one of the priorities for the Georgian Dream,” Lebanidze said. He added, however, that he believed the party to be mostly pro-Western.
The Georgian Dream, which came to power in 2012, has announced plans to join NATO and the European Union, established a NATO training facility and joined the alliance’s Response Force.
At the same time, the party has been accused of having pro-Russian leanings. The Georgian Dream government has stepped up economic cooperation with Russia, while the Kremlin’s media presence in the country has soared.
The party’s leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili, has built a business empire in Russia and used to be a major investor in Russian gas giant Gazprom. He says, however, he has sold most of his Russian assets.
Another implication for Ukraine is that Saakashvili, who is currently governor of Ukraine’s Odesa Oblast, and his team are likely to stay in Ukraine and continue influencing its politics. Among others, the team comprises Ukraine’s National Police chief Khatia Dekanoidze, ex-Deputy Prosecutor General Davit Sakvarelidze and Saakashvili’s former chief of staff and now his advisor Zurab Adeishvili.
Saakashvili said on Oct. 1 that he was planning to go to Georgia to “protect the election’s results” and suggested appointing Dekanoidze as the country’s interior minister if his party wins.
He elaborated on Oct. 8, however, that he would not leave Ukraine for good and would continue “fighting for real change and for replacing the political elite” there.
