When does propaganda work — and when does it backfire? Many politicians, pundits and scholars have been asking that question recently, given Russia’s attempts to influence elections in the United States and Europe through paid online activists, bots and state-sponsored foreign-language television (RT) and radio (Sputnik) programming. Observers worry that conspicuously biased news stories or outright “fake news” are eroding democracy. In response to Russia’s purported weaponization of information, the United States has added sanctions, and the European Union has set up a task force to counteract Russian disinformation.
But it’s not at all clear how well these Russian campaigns work. After examining Russia’s 2014 disinformation campaign in Ukraine, we found that Russian propaganda has very uneven effects. Whether it sways individuals to vote for pro-Russian candidates — or backfires, and makes them less likely to do so — depends on the political predispositions of the target audience.
