“We must decisively reject blackmail and never allow aggression and threats to be rewarded. We must resolutely defend, not dilute, our foundational principles and commitments.” stated Mike Carpenter, U.S. Ambassador to the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) on Jan. 13 at talks in Vienna that were held to discuss the demand of the Russian Federation, a member state, for “security guarantees” at the cost of Ukraine.
Carpenter stressed that member states should not tolerate “restrictions on the sovereign right of nations to choose their own alliances.” He rejected the idea of “spheres of influence” whereby larger powerful nations can control the policies of smaller neighbours, and he reminded members that the security of all states is of equal importance.
The diplomat said that all 57 members should listen and discuss to seek workable solutions based upon the founding principles of the OSCE, such as the Helsinki Final Act, which protects the sovereignty, independence, rights, and territorial integrity of nations, and outlines peaceful rules by which nations can cooperate and interact.
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan was asked to comment on a statement by Ambassador Carpenter that “The drumbeat of war is sounding loud, and the rhetoric has gotten rather shrill,” at a White House press briefing on the same day.
Sullivan said that “the Russians have put tens of thousands of troops in and around Ukraine and occupied territory relative to Ukraine. So, it is certainly the case that the threat of military invasion is high,” and that U.S. officials are acutely aware of who they are dealing with and, “about what the prospects are for potential conflict and potential military escalation by Russia.”
Meanwhile Russia’s TASS news agency reported Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Jan. 14 as saying that at the end of the Cold War there was an agreement that North Atlantic allies would not dictate their will on others. as he said is now occurring. Moscow’s security proposals were being “tactlessly misunderstood,” and it wanted legally binding guarantees from the West about security.
Lavrov asserted that Russia is “not going to endlessly wait for some changes and promises,” and that it can defend its own security in any case.
Lavrov’s statement was issued only hours after massive cyberattacks on Ukrainian government websites.
The Computer Emergency Response Team of Ukraine (CERT-UA) issued a statement “On the night of Jan. 13-14, a number of government websites, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Education and Science and others, were hacked. Provocative messages were posted on the main page of these sites.” The content was: “Ukrainians! … All information about you has become public, be afraid and expect worse.”
Kyiv Post was one of the first outlets to share the news that “Foreign Ministry spokesperson Oleh Nikolenko told Reuters it was too early to say who could be responsible for the attack but said Russia had been behind similar attacks in the past.”
Also on Friday, the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine issued a warning that “Russian intelligence agencies are preparing provocations against the soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces” in Transnistria in Moldova and plan to blame Ukraine in a hybrid warfare attempt to create the justification for an invasion of Ukraine. Similar assertions have been made in media about false claims that Ukrainian forces plan to invade occupied Donbas.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken opened on Jan. 13 that de-escalation is needed if there is going to be progress in the talks that have been ongoing this week between the U.S., NATO, the OSCE (allies and partners) and the Russian Federation.
He reiterated that there are two paths forward for Russia, one of diplomacy and dialogue and the other that will bring huge consequences in the event of a further invasion of Ukraine.
Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olga Stefanishyna, in an interview with CNBC, stressed that Ukraine “is the largest country in Europe, we are already part of the security architecture of the economic architecture. So, it’s really time for us to be [at] the table” in talks concerning the future of Ukraine. Stefanishyna said that combating Russian aggression is a daily reality for Ukraine and indicated that only full membership of NATO and international organisations would put Ukraine at necessary negotiation tables.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in an interview with “’La Repubblica” that NATO had accepted the application of Ukraine towards NATO membership at the Bucharest Summit in 2008 and is working with Ukraine to implement the reforms and standards that are necessary to meet NATO standards. No timeline was specified.
As a very busy week in negotiations ends, it is clear the Western States have reaffirmed their adherence to international relations based upon rules. It is also evident that President Vladimir Putin has two options; to choose peace through diplomacy, or to choose conflict.
While Allies urge peace through diplomacy and dialogue, they are fully united and prepared to deal with whatever is decided by Putin.
