It was the evening of April 21. The first exit polls had just rolled in, indicating that comedic actor and political novice Volodymyr Zelenskiy would be elected Ukraine’s next president.
At his campaign headquarters, the political newcomer took to the stage to address his supporters and the press. But Zelenskiy directed his brief speech not only at Ukraine, but also other former Soviet states.
“While I’m not yet president, I can say this as a Ukrainian citizen. To all post-Soviet countries: look at us. Everything is possible,” he said.
His words resonated far and wide.
Kazakhstan
On the same day Ukrainians exercised their right to elect a comedian as their new leader, a court in the Kazakh city of Almaty handed down a 15-day jail sentence to two activists. Their crime? Calling for a fair and competitive presidential election on June 9.
Kazakhstan is preparing to hold its first presidential election without its long-standing leader, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who unexpectedly stepped down in March after 30 years in power. Although Nazarbayev’s name won’t be on the ballot, he stays very much in power as the leader of the ruling party Nur Otan. That party recently picked his successor: Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev, who currently serves as the interim president.
Activists Asiya Tulesova and Beibarys Tolymbekov were arrested for unfurling a banner reading “You can’t run from the truth,” “For fair elections,” and “I have a choice” during the city marathon on April 21.
Zelenskiy’s landslide victory, followed by President Petro Poroshenko’s graceful concession, seem to have impressed Kazakh citizens who only expect a simulacrum of a presidential race in their country. Pundits and journalists also drew parallels between the two countries and pondered whether Kazakhstan could get its own Zelenskiy. Clips from Servant of the People television series, in which Zelenskiy plays a school teacher elected President of Ukraine, circulated on social media among Kazakh users.
“Our people observed Ukraine’s election with envy. There was everything we want: competition, a new face in politics, debate. I would say it inspired our society,” said journalist Bagdat Asylbek, who wrote an article titled “Searching for our Zelenskiy” for the Fergana news website.
Asylbek attended a public meeting in Almaty to discuss the future Kazakh election and the absence of real political choice in it — a rare event in a country known for suppression of political dissent and repression of free media. The meeting was held after the arrest of activists Tulesova and Tolymbekov.
“At the meeting, a political expert Dosym Satpayev compared elections in Ukraine and Kazakhstan. He said that Zelenskiy was a new face, an ‘against everyone’ candidate,” Asylbek said. “He suggested that opposition journalist Yermurat Bapi, who is running for office, could become such an ‘against everyone’ candidate in our vote. But I don’t think he stands a chance. He’s little-known to the general public and he doesn’t have administrative resources.”
Almaty-based journalist Aigerim Toleukhan said that Kazakh legislation completely excludes the possibility of running for someone like Zelenskiy, an outsider without political experience.
By law, independent candidates cannot run. Only parties may nominate presidential candidates who must have five years of experience in public service. Not one of Kazakhstan’s seven officially registered parties is truly oppositional, she said.
Kyrgyzstan
In another Central Asian state, Kyrgyzstan, citizens also closely followed the Ukrainian presidential election.
Unlike its neighbors in the region, which are ruled by strongmen, Kyrgyzstan boasts a vibrant civil society, has a history of twice overthrowing corrupt presidents, and changes its government approximately every 9–18 months on average.
Its last presidential election, held in 2017, was declared the first truly competitive vote in Central Asia, but ultimately proved a win for the old order. Sooronbay Jeyenbekov, the chosen successor of outgoing President Almazbek Atambayev, defeated his younger rival, opposition leader and businessman Omurbek Babanov, in an unpredictable race.
On April 23, Kyrgyz tabloid Super.kg, the largest newspaper in the country, published an article on the Ukrainian election’s effects on Kyrgyz politics. It cited clear similarities between both nations: two revolutions, high level of corruption, widespread labor migration, disillusionment with the powers that be, and demand for new faces in politics.
One expert interviewed for the story praised Ukraine for sticking to its pro-Western course — one that will not change even when a new leader takes the helm. Another political expert said Kyrgyzstan would need Ukraine’s experience in dealing with Russia. “We can see what attitude Russia shows when the relations with it go bad,” he said.
Unlike Ukraine — which distanced itself from the Kremlin after Russia launched a war in the Donbas and occupied Crimea five years ago — the Kyrgyz leadership has strengthened its ties with Moscow, becoming a member of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
“Ukraine officially left the Commonwealth of Independent States (an inter-state organization born after the collapse of Soviet Union in 1991). It looks westwards and feels itself to be part of Europe. So it was heartwarming when Zelenskiy addressed former Soviet countries,” Kyrgyz politician Edil Baisalov told the Kyiv Post. “Major responsibility lies on Zelenskiy as the president of Ukraine. Ukraine’s success as a functioning European state is important for Kyrgyzstan, too.”
In Kyrgyzstan, Zelenskiy is particularly well-known among young people who take part in KVN, a team comedy competition that emerged from a popular Russian television show and that spread to all former Soviet countries. Zelenskiy began his career in KVN, but later left and moved back to Ukraine, where he started his own business.
Several Kyrgyz comedians have participated in Make a Comedian Laugh, a stand-up comedy competition on Ukrainian television hosted by Zelenskiy. One of them, Ilgiz Kuvatbek, won Hr 50,000 ($1,880) with his friend Eldiyar Yeshimbekov on the show in 2017.
Kuvatbek told the Kyiv Post that Zelenskiy’s victory in the Ukrainian election also inspired comedians.
“I think it’s a great occasion for everyone brought up on KVN. Many think comedy isn’t a serious occupation. People usually ask ‘What are you going to become?’ Zelenskiy proved that a comedian can even become a president and can contribute to his country’s development,” he said, adding jokingly that he wouldn’t mind becoming the president of Kyrgyzstan someday.
Belarus
In Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko has held power for 25 years. The country’s next presidential election is set for 2020, but few expect any real competition or challenge to Lukashenko.
Without truly democratic elections at home, Belarusians tuned into Ukraine’s presidential vote.
On April 19, the Lidbeer bar in central Minsk broadcast the presidential debate between candidates Poroshenko and Zelenskiy at Kyiv’s Olimpiysky Stadium.
“It was an important event in a neighboring country and also a spectacle to behold. Events like this don’t happen here,” said Vladimir Plavinsky, the art director of Lidbeer. “The idea to broadcast it came spontaneously, and we couldn’t fit everyone who wanted to watch it. Our bar is quite small, and we managed to accommodate around 120 people.”
That night, the majority of the crowd cheered for Zelenskiy and applauded his debate performance. Plavinsky said that Belarusian media covered the Ukrainian election neutrally. He mostly watched its coverage on Ukrainian television channels and followed the campaign on social media.
Inspiration
Can other post-Soviet countries follow Ukraine’s suit?
Yevhen Hlibovytsky, a strategist and founder of the pro.mova communication consultancy, told the Kyiv Post that the Ukrainian model could be an inspiration and a demonstration that change is possible. But it cannot be copied, he said.
“What I’ve learned from my experience in other former Soviet countries is that local context matters more. Any implication from Ukraine’s case has to be re-contextualized for local realities. There’s something to learn from Ukraine’s case, but it’s definitely not a trajectory. Every country has to come up with its own solution,” he said.
Ukraine’s aspiration for membership of the European Union and accession to NATO may be geographically irrelevant for many post-Soviet countries, but if Ukraine succeeds, its experience can be used as a benchmark. And Ukraine helps to expose the risks that a country that wants to be both successful and free from Russia is likely to face.
“There was no EU in Asia, but some Asian countries successfully transformed themselves using their partnerships with the United States and the United Kingdom to achieve the same security and institutional guarantees that many European countries achieved by joining the EU and NATO,” Hlibovytsky said.
