While Minsk peace agreements haven’t worked in bringing an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine, Ukrainian officials are reporting the start of troop withdrawal.
The forces from both sides of the war front in the eastern Donbas were withdrawn one kilometer further apart close to Petrivske in Donetsk Oblast on Oct. 7, according to the Defense Ministry. The withdrawal — coming even as Russia has failed to live up to its February 2015 commitments to withdraw troops, weapons and return the eastern border to Ukraine’s control — has already prompted criticism that the country is under pressure to accept a bad deal.
The withdrawal was conducted under observance of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe special monitoring mission. Before that, troops were taken away from an area near Zolote village in Luhansk Oblast on Oct. 1. The removal was agreed in Minsk on Sept. 21 by the trilateral contact group, which also demanded a seven-day cease-fire before its implementation.
The first Minsk peace plan came in September 2014 and a second on in February 2015. They are named for the Belarusian capital where the peace talks took place. The Russian-backed separatists systematically violated the agreement, though, the Minsk II agreement is still nominally in effect.
A negotiator from the Ukrainian side, former Prime Minister and Defense Minister Yevhen Marchuk, said that the removal is aimed to train troops to the actual cease-fire, identified by Minsk II. The next withdrawal may reach the villages and cities, which are de facto under the control of pro-Kremlin forces.
However, former investigative journalist and lawmaker from President Petro Poroshenko’s Bloc, Mustafa Nayyem, said that further troop withdrawal imposed on Ukraine would be resented and may destabilize the situation. The deal demands Ukrainian troops to stand back, but does not impose the same demands on Russian forces. Instead, the deal proposes to disarm the separatists.
He said that the political part of the Minsk peace deal involves the adoption of a law on elections in the Russian-occupied territories immediately after the withdrawal of forces to a distance of two kilometers apart. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces would be removed to the military bases, while military equipment, based on the occupied territory, would be stored in the protected seal storages, according to Nayyem. Plus, he said that the Minsk deal doesn’t provide instruction on how the border control would be regained either by Ukrainian troops or, as a compromise, by the OSCE mission. Also, there is no mention of cease-fire guarantees and sanctions against its violation.
According to Nayyem, the further pressure on Ukraine in terms of implementation peace deal may lead to the destabilization of the country, “the consequences of which neither the Europeans nor the Americans partners do not want to be aware of.”
“It is time to recognize the failure of the Minsk agreements on Russia’s fault; or look for an alternative,” he wrote on his Facebook page.
Meanwhile, Marchuk says the troop’s withdrawal plans to show the both sides how the separation of forces should be conducted when the Minsk peace plan indeed comes into action.
As of Oct. 8, the troops were withdrawn in the vicinity of Zolote in Luhansk Oblast and Petrovske in Donetsk Oblast. This separation covers two kilometers and means withdrawing of a weapon and demining of roads. “In a military language, it means relocation,” he said.
After the withdrawal, Ukrainian forces took new positions. In the case of cease-fire violations, the soldiers need around 10 minutes to come back to the old stands, the head of Donetsk oblast administration, Pavlo Zhebrivskyi ,wrote on Facebook about force removal.
The following steps would lead to military removal in the settlements, Marchuk said. Taking forces from the villages is more difficult than neutral territory – it expands on the inhabitants, who are under Russia-backed separatists control as of now.
Stanytsia Luhanska, a city of some 13,000 citizens some 850 kilometers from Kyiv, might be the next point of force withdrawing because of the destroyed bridge, used by locals as well as soldiers. However, the constant violations of cease-fire prevent military dilution in this city, defense ministry reports.
In the case of further Minsk violations in the next months, U.S. officials plan to hold the sanctions against Russia, blacklisting dozens of senior Russian officials, state banks, and corporations. The U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that the government will insist on extending the sanctions unless Russia implements Minsk deal.
Among the latest, U.S. restrictions introduced in September targeted Russian state bank Sberbank, along with state defense corporation Rostec, and gas monopoly Gazprom. Their access to long-term loans has been blocked, according to BBC news website.
“I think we should state publicly that if we fail to realize the Minsk in the upcoming months or come to a clear plan on how it will be implemented… it will be absolutely necessary to extend the sanctions, what we do not want to (do), but it is the only option that can be done…” Kerry said before the meeting on Syrian crisis with French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault in Washington on Oct. 7.
