Republican Party candidate and businessman Donald Trump claimed an upset — or at least easier-than-expected — victory in the U.S. presidential election over Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton.
Trump had not been the candidate favored by most Ukrainians to take the presidency of the United States, Ukraine’s key ally in its defense against Russia’s war and annexation of Crimea.
In the end, Trump proved most mainstream pundits and journalists wrong, winning the electoral vote, while Clinton won the popular vote.
Ukraine has reason to worry more than most nations.
The 2016 presidential campaign saw journalists uncover ties between the Trump camp and the Kremlin, while the now president-elect made numerous statements throughout the race that appeared to put Russian interests ahead of Ukrainian ones.
The mood in Kyiv is now one of apprehension, and Ukrainian politicians appeared to be groping for reasons to be optimistic.
Hanna Hopko, a Ukrainian lawmaker who heads parliament’s foreign affairs committee, told the Kyiv Post that Clinton had been the better-informed candidate, as she had worked as U.S. secretary of state and had been to Ukraine before as a government official.
Hopko said that key Trump appointments, including that of secretary of state and national security council chief, would signal the new administration’s Ukraine policy, rather than Trump’s statements on the campaign trail.
“It’s not in the interest of the United States not to stop the Kremlin,” she said, referring to the fears that Trump would put Russia ahead of Ukraine. “We need to differentiate the statements of a candidate in the middle of a presidential campaign… and of the president-elect of the United States, with decisions being made not on behalf of the candidate, but of the entire state.”
Ilya Kiva, the controversial head of Ukraine’s anti-narcotics enforcer, wrote in a facebook post that “after Trump’s victory, I’m sure that I have all the chances.”
Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman congratulated the American people on “choosing a president” without naming Trump, while Deputy Presidential Administration Head Dmytro Shymkiv wrote that “new challenges equal new possibilities.”
Others were less sanguine.
Radical party leader Oleh Lyashko tweeted that Trump’s election was a “catastrophe,” before deleting the message.
Putting Russia first?
Trump, the first president in U.S. history to have never served in either the government or in the military, made several suggestions during his campaign that he would adopt a Kremlin-friendly foreign policy.
In September, the Trump campaign snubbed President Petro Poroshenko while the Ukrainian leader visited New York. Poroshenko was able to meet with former Secretary of State and Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, but the Trump campaign purportedly ignored an invitation to meet.
During the campaign, Trump made a number of gaffes involving Ukraine. In an interview in July he said that he believed the residents of Crimea preferred to live under the rule of Russian President Vladimir Putin. He also said that he did not think Russia is “going to go into Ukraine,” even though Russia is already here — occupying Crimea and large portions of the eastern Donbas with soldiers and proxies.
And in an interview in September with Russian government-owned news outlet Russia Today, Trump called Putin “far more” of a leader than outgoing U.S. President Barack Obama.
Putin expressed “certainty” in a telegram congratulating Trump on his victory that Moscow and Washington will work together “on principles of equality, mutual respect, and real consideration of each other’s position.”
Trump has also been accused of having close business ties with Russian oligarchs and mobsters. He also was the first presidential candidate in more than 40 years to not release his tax returns, potentially concealing many conflicts of interests, including Russian business deals.
Moreover, Trump surrounded himself with pro-Kremlin aides, most notably Paul Manafort as his campaign manager. Manafort was forced out after reports surfaced of multimillion-dollar payments from Ukraine’s fugitive former pro-Kremlin President Viktor Yanukovych.
Cautious optimism
U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch attempted to reassure journalists in Kyiv on the morning after the election.
“No matter who the next commander in chief is… the United States will remain a strong partner of Ukraine,” Yovanovitch said.
And some in Kyiv are trying to see an upside to Trump’s victory.
“Many questions will be asked by the new administration,” said Andy Hunder, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine. “The Ukrainian government will really have to show that progress is being made in reforms.”
Hunder added that he believed Trump would take a more “rational and pragmatic approach” towards Ukraine than he had during the campaign.
Taras Kachka, former business ombudsman and now deputy executive director of the International Renaissance Foundation, said that Trump would probably not be as radical as president as he was as a candidate, but that the situation was still uncertain.
“It is quite difficult to predict at the moment the stance of (Trump’s) cabinet towards all of the processes in which Ukraine is involved,” Kachka said.
Razumkov Center Foreign Relations Director Oleksiy Melnyk said that it’s better not to “listen to those who have already said that everything is lost.”
“The U.S. president, despite having incredibly broad powers, has very serious restrictions on the freedom of his decision-making ability,” Melnyk said, adding, “The good news in all of this is that Clinton will never be able to disappoint us.”
Dalibor Rohac, a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said that Trump would likely “strike a deal with Putin of some kind.”
“I expect that the US sanctions will be removed eventually. After that, the EU will not be able to justify its own sanctions and those will go. I expect that the annexation of Crimea will be acquiesced to, if not formally recognized, and that Putin will be allowed to simply continue in quest to destroy Ukraine’s nascent liberal democracy,” Rohac added.
Trump’s election came with Republican victories down-ballot, bringing the party control of both chambers of the U.S. legislature – the House of Representatives and the Senate.
With this, Trump’s party will be able to fill the current vacancy on the Supreme Court without opposition, leaving Republicans in full control of the United States government, and a Supreme Court with a conservative majority.
Americans in Kyiv react
“It’s the end of the world as we know it,” said Reno Domenico, president of Democrats Abroad in Ukraine. He compared it to two other major setbacks — the 1968 election of Richard Nixon, who resigned in disgrace in 1974, and the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan, who unseated incumbent Democrat Jimmy Carter.
“I was working on that 1980 election like a dog and could feel it slipping away and it fell apart at the end and disappeared,” Domenico said. He said Trump’s nativist and sexist campaign spell trouble for America.
He thinks that a Trump presidency is especially bad news for Ukraine.
“The Kremlin must be spending so much money on champagne. The party must be rolling,” Domenico said. “It’s a bad day for America and a bad day for the world.”
He found a little solace in dark humor. “I heard two good jokes: Ukraine will be OK because Trump doesn’t know where it is. And, Ukraine is safe from a market crash because you can’t crash the same plane twice.”
The hope among Ukraine supporters in America is that Republican hawks — such as the newly re-elected U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio — will keep U.S. foreign policy firmly in support of Ukraine against Russia’s war.
Republican Brian Mefford, a Kyiv-based political consultant, said that with the re-election of three of the most pro-Ukrainian hawks, Ukraine’s interests should be protected.
“Also, the state and defense departments have plans for 5-20 years in the future for other countries, not month to month or on political whim. They will also moderate Trump’s foreign policy positions just as they have done with other presidents.”
