VILNIUS, Lithuania – A forum of Russian liberal intellectuals organized by Garry Kasparov, a renowned chess champion and a leader of the Russian opposition, opened on Dec. 7, in Vilnius. Ukraine became one of the main topics, with both Ukrainian speakers and their Russian counterparts fearing a full-scale conflict between the two neighboring countries after Russia’s attack in the Kerch Strait.
The 6th Free Russia Forum gathered politicians, journalists and activists from both Ukraine and Russia for a two-day conference to talk about Russia, its political future and its military aggression in Ukraine. For many, Russian aggression in the Black Sea, which culminated with the attack on Nov. 25, marked a new, scary, chapter in the ongoing war.
Ayder Muzhdabaev, a Ukrainian Crimean Tatar activist and journalist, talking about the future of Russian aggression against Ukraine, said that everyone shouldn’t forget about the possibility of a full-scale confrontation, an escalation of the war Russia has been waging in eastern Ukraine since 2014 and which killed more than 10,300 people.
Muzhdabaev also warned against trying to guess what is on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s mind.
“Trying to think (rationally), like Putin would, is a crucial mistake of Western politicians, they’ll never be able to think like him,” said Muzhdabaev.
Muzdabaev emphasized that Russian opposition lacks consensus concerning Russian aggression, pointing out that even Russian liberal media are hesitant in stating that Russia attacked Ukraine.
“Even Meduza (a Russian news website based in Latvia), based in Riga, each time is closer and closer to the official Russian position,” said Muzdabaev. “Meduza called the Russian attack on Ukrainian ships was called (on Meduza) an incident, writing that ‘Russia and Ukraine quarrelled again’.”
According to Muzdabaev, this is a dangerous precedent, with Russian mass media who still have credibility around the world, who are looked upon as liberal, choosing to side with Kremlin and equate the victim to the aggressor.
“We should be cautious about those who think that Ukraine shares the blame, we must prevent this notion from spreading in the West, because this will lead to poor decisions, wrong risk assessment and may foster misjudgment when dealing with an aggressive Russian regime,” said Muzhdabaev.
The Russian liberals in the room appeared to have a better understanding of the Russian aggression against Ukraine than those that Muzhdabaev referred to.
“(Here), there are no people who think that it is not an act of aggression (against Ukraine), that it wasn’t an annexation (of Crimea),” said Aleksandr Morozov, a Russian journalist based in Prague, while opening the discussion panel concerning the future of Russian-Ukrainian relations. “We are in a new post-Kerch phase, that signifies a new (open) war against Ukraine.”
Speakers of the Ukrainian panel included Yevhen Magda, a Ukrainian political scientist, Taras Berezovets, a Ukrainian political consultant and TV host, Yevgeniy Kiselyov, a Russian journalist living in Ukraine, Ilya Ponomarev, a Russian politician forced into exile and Oleksandr Kharebin, a Ukrainian political expert.
A Ukrainian panel takes place at the 6th Free Russia Forum in Vilnius, Lithuania, on Dec. 7. (Oleksiy Sorokin)
The panel focused on the future that awaits Russian-Ukrainian relations. The consensus among experts was that the next year might be key, with Ukraine holding both presidential and parliamentary elections, as well as creating an independent unified church after 300 years of subservience to the Russian church in the global Eastern Orthodox hierarchy.
According to Berezovets, the possibility of a Russian full-scale war against Ukraine directly correlates with the future presidential elections in Ukraine.
“If the government (in Ukraine) changes, anything is possible,” said Berezovets.
He said that Russia would do anything to halt Ukraine’s European integration and that there are forces in Ukraine that can assist Russia in doing so.
This notion was supported by Arkadiy Babchenko, a Russian journalist living in Ukraine, who was according to Ukraine’s intelligence agency a target of an assassination plot earlier in 2018. Answering a question about what the elections of a new Ukrainian president can bring to the table, Babchenko cited full-scale war as one of the main possibilities.
Other members of the Ukrainian panel expressed somewhat contradicting predictions concerning the future of Russian-Ukrainian relations.
Magda, a Ukrainian political expert, cited that the relations between the two countries are broken and it will take a shift in Russian consciousness to rebuild trust.
“It is wrong to think that when Putin steps down relations will be fixed,” said Magda, adding that the concept of “protecting Russians abroad” is an ideology that will be present in Russian people’s minds for a long time.
Kiselyov and Ponomarev on the other hand expressed slight optimism about Russian-Ukrainian relations after Putin, saying that Ukraine must show Russia the right way. According to them, a successful European integration of Ukraine might foster democratic transformation in Russia.
Both journalist Kiselyov and politician Ponomarev are living in Kyiv and can’t return to Russia because of politically motivated prosecution.
Forced into exile, both Ponomarev and Kiselyov said that they do not see any hatred towards Russians in Ukraine, even though there are preconditions for that. This gives them hope that relations will be eventually restored.
However, even though a large part of Kyiv is Russian-speaking and people are sympathetic to Russians who are forced out of their homeland, “one soon realizes that Ukraine is a different country and that Russians do not have the right to influence Ukraine’s decisions,” added Kiselyov.
“Ukraine turned out to be ahead of Russia, becoming the locomotive for a transition from the corrupt post-Soviet model, to a new model,” said Kiselyov. “Russian future depends on Ukraine’s success.”
That is why, according to Kiselyov, the Russian Federation will do anything to stop Ukraine, yet Russians will benefit from a successful Ukraine.
“The year 2014 was a turning point,” said Ponomarev, referring to the EuroMaidan Revolution in Ukraine that swept a pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych from power. “It doesn’t matter who wins the presidential elections (in Ukraine in 2019), there is no turning back.”
