A total failure — that’s how former NATO deputy secretary general Alexander Vershbow described the attempts of two U.S. presidential administrations and two Ukrainian presidents to bring peace to eastern Ukraine, where Russia has been waging its war since 2014.
“Russia has pocketed every concession offered while basically pretending to negotiate,” said Vershbow, who’s also a former U.S. ambassador to Russia and current fellow at the Atlantic Council, speaking on Feb. 8 at a webinar titled “Can Biden get Putin out of Ukraine?”
According to Andriy Zahorodniuk, Ukraine’s former minister of defense, things on the front line are getting more tense, with several violations of the Minsk agreements recorded per day. Four Ukrainian service members have died since the beginning of 2021.
Zahorodniuk said that finding a solution depends on the ability of the United States, Ukraine and their European allies to build up policy regardless of Russia’s actions.
The Joe Biden administration’s arrival brought optimism that the U.S. will provide more support to Ukraine and take a more active role in negotiations with Russia. Biden’s recent comments have shown that he plans to be tough on Russia and will seek to mobilize his European allies.
“We will not hesitate to raise the cost on Russia and defend our vital interests and our people, and we will be more effective in dealing with Russia when we work in coalition and coordination with other like-minded partners,” he said.
Raising stakes
According to Vershbow, Biden is a true believer in defending the sovereignty of Ukraine. Vershbow believes that Biden will play an active leadership role and will likely assign the task of achieving peace in Ukraine to recently confirmed Secretary of State Tony Blinken or a top level deputy — a move that would signal Biden’s seriousness in this endeavor.
Vershbow also thinks that Biden’s renewed commitment to Ukraine can change Russian President Vladimir Putin’s policy. Putin may look for a way out if Biden seriously raises the cost of Russia’s current actions in Ukraine.
The U.S. and its allies “should make it clear that the price of prolonging the status quo will continue to rise… that sanctions will get more stringent if Russia continues this aggression and that the Ukrainian relationship with NATO is going to get closer,” he said.
David Kramer, senior fellow at Florida International University, believes that sanctions may need “to be ramped up to include Mr. Putin himself” since sanctioning people close to him has not done much to change the situation.
Kramer expects the new U.S. administration to pay more attention to the war in Ukraine than the previous one. He said that while the Trump administration showed some good efforts at the lower levels, at the presidential level, it was “an unmitigated disaster.”
Kramer expects the U.S. to keep supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine and to impose tougher sanctions on Russia.
Zahorodniuk also emphasized the importance of increasing military support. Doing so would demonstrate that the U.S. is ready to help and show Russia that the U.S. is serious. It is important, however, not only to provide “weapons but the doctrine, leadership, personnel, and military infrastructure,” he said.
Bringing Russia to the table
But perhaps the biggest challenge the Biden administration faces is finding the leverage to get Russia to stop buying time in negotiations. Biden must work with Europeans on creating tougher sanctions and with the U.S. Congress to enact legislation that can lift the sanctions if Russia cooperates.
Russia has to feel like it’d get something out of coming to the table, Vershbow believes. He suggested making Russia more involved in decision making in the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) or giving more substance to the NATO-Russia Council.
But finding a lasting solution may take time. At home, Putin is dealing with mass protests over the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. The top Kremlin critic returned last month from Germany, where he’d been treated for poisoning, ordered, he says, by Putin himself. On Feb. 2, Navalny was sentenced to nearly three years in prison.
“This may not be a time where Putin wants to show any weakness or flexibility,” Vershbow said.
