Lots and lots of Russian disinformation appears in American media with claims that the U.S. has no interest, no need to come to Ukraine’s aid.
Pundits conveniently forget to mention that a full scale escalation will cause a huge refugee problem for Europe and North America, that billions of Euros and U.S. dollars invested (hello, international mutual funds) in Ukraine’s extractive industries, tech firms, textile industry (read the “Made In” labels on your designer clothes), agriculture (Ukraine is one of the world’s largest net exporters of agricultural goods – literally feeding hundreds of millions around the globe) will go poof.
In this interconnected world of ours, you can't “just say no.” Not to mention the human rights aspect of this whole thing, the potential for tragic loss of life. After all, war does suck.
Putin has stated many times that, in his humble opinion, the collapse of the USSR, the end of Russia’s hegemony over 15 hidden nations aka former Soviet republics, was one of history’s worst tragedies. He genuinely believes this claim. He has not been shy about his ambitions to expand and recreate something similar.
If not exactly a Russian empire with a monarchy or the USSR with a dictatorial Party structure, then something nebulous-sounding such as “a Russian space” (пространство) with the oligarch class (бояре) in charge, and the borders of which he alone, as Supreme President for Life, gets to define. Enter his infamous “red lines” that he keeps telling the West they cannot cross. You know, the way you and your kid sister divvied up your bedroom with masking tape. Hey! Stay on your side!
Even if we think he’s nuts, he knows he is serious. Russia has tanks and troops on three borders of Ukraine, loads of missiles and bombs, way more planes than Ukraine, plus more soldiers, has moved boats into the Black Sea. That kind of preparation is not just a bluff. He is going to do something unless he gets a tidy little deal to stop.
Extortion benefits only the extortionist. No matter how much lipstick you put on a pig, it is still a pig.
Heaven knows the U.S. is not getting anything out of these talks underway in three European cities, nor is NATO getting anything, nor is Europe, and definitely not Ukraine. These entities are only at the table to give. As he takes, Putin is not giving anything other than the promise that he may not wreak havoc at a future date.
What has changed for Vlad that he feels this urgency to step up his game these past few months? Do you mean, besides the fact that he is losing badly in Ukraine, that America and Europe were no longer really paying attention to him, that his bud Don the Con lost the U.S. election, that China is getting the upper hand and he feels left out (boohoo).
He is getting old and is afraid that his legacy will be one of failure – failure to re-establish Great Russia. The ultimate legacy would be if he could destroy the rules-based international order. Such fun! To fulfill all his delusions, he needs Ukraine.
He has, at best, a good ten years left, so Putin’s gotta get crackin’ since Plan A is not working so well. After eight years of zippo progress in breaking Ukraine in a slo-mo fashion on his own, he was getting irritated, bored, exasperated, and needed to come up with a new strategy.
Putin’s Plan B is simple enough: doing it on my own has been a bust, so I am now going to make you guys in the West help me make Ukraine submit. I really do not want more war, I am not stupid, it is a huge risk for me, but I am going to threaten more war, and frankly, will do it, unless you give me what I want.
A shrewd megalomaniac, Vlad saw that the adults in the world are tired -
Covid, domestic issues, uneven economies. He bet that they would not have energy at this time to give him the smack down he deserves. This week, therefore, as the adults meet with the bully and his boys in lovely European cities, we are waiting to see if the West’s resolve and promises of severe consequences, sweetened with incentives (carrot, stick) will dial down Putin’s calculation of military escalation closer to zero.
Yet, if after all is said and done, after the West has given him a basket of carrots in an exchange for a cross-my-heart, if Putin still believes that he can have a net gain after escalation, he will escalate the war. Only a calculation that he will lose, and really lose badly, will stop him. The West must also bring a big bundle of sticks.
Ukraine’s concern in this carrot/stick process is that the carrot will be some kind of “decision” (ahem, compromise) that Ukraine will be “asked” (read pressured) to make for the sake of peace in Europe, thereby appeasing the bully for now. Money for land? Give him another port. Semi autonomous political status for Donetsk and Luhansk? Allow water to flow into occupied Crimea? Whatever the carrot for peace may be, Ukraine will be asked to make the sacrifice. And the bully will be rewarded.
Putin started a fire (massing troops on Ukraine’s border), talked aggressively (Ukraine and Russia are “destined” to be together – Putin has Fate on speed dial), blamed his failure on others (CIA infiltrated Ukraine, Soros is everywhere), in short, stomped his feet, yelled loudly, made crazy accusations, whimpered and whined that he feels threatened by NATO (oh, come on Vlad, man up, you are the country that has the most short and long range missiles in the world), then took a seat to wait and see what this little act of his will deliver.
Now that the adults are finally paying attention to him, he will offer to discuss with them options of how they can help him put out the fire that he started (see how that works?) plus, make them give him some extra bennies for the promise that he will not start another fire ever, ever again. Pinky promise.
Current predictions for a military escalation start date are for February, around the time of the Winter Olympics in Beijing. Putin invaded Georgia in August 2008, at the end of the Beijing Summer Olympics. He invaded Ukraine in February 2014, at the end of the Sochi Winter Olympics. February is also the time when the ground is most frozen, good for heavy tanks to roll in.
Putin the Bully is all set up for more war, yet the big unknown is whether or not Putin is actually cruel and irrational enough to go ahead. And, while Putin may pay a price for beating the shit out of somebody, he is the kind of guy who actually is willing to beat the shit out of somebody – the kind of action that repels civilized people. That is why it feels as though the West is bringing a laptop to a gunfight.
An editor and journalist, Irena Yarosevych worked in Kyiv, 1991-1993, as the Foreign Media Liaison for Rukh, The Popular Movement of Ukraine.
