Editor’s note: The following is an edited version of a Kyiv Post interview with a career diplomat who is now retired, Volodymyr Ohryzko, who is a former Ukrainian minister of foreign affairs. It was edited for brevity and context.
[Klitina] Good afternoon. My name is Aleksandra Klitina, a Kyiv Post journalist. Today with us is Volodymyr Ohryzko, a former minister of foreign affairs of Ukraine. Good afternoon.
[Ohryzko] Good afternoon.
[Klitina] I wanted to ask about your opinion on [Russian President’s Vladimir] Putin’s logic. The active war has been going on for two months already. We see that the first plans to capture Kyiv have failed. What do you think the objectives of the second stage of his “special operation” are now? What should we expect?
[Ohryzko] Putin has a clear plan concerning Ukraine. He formulated this plan a long time ago. And this plan is straightforward from his point of view. This plan is called “I want to destroy Ukraine.” All that is going on now is the realization of this plan.
The first stage had the objective of doing it at lightning speed, with the help of the so-called “blitzkrieg.” He was hoping that the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Ukrainians would not be able to withstand the aggression. He was wrong. He is now proceeding to the next stage. He plans to fulfil this stage not by a frontal assault on Kyiv but through bypassing from the east and the south. However, I think that neither the first nor the second stages of his aggression will have a positive effect.
Since he does not understand the essential thing that Ukrainians will never live under the yoke under which that nation called “Russians” is living today “behind the curb.” We are simply different. We have other views on the sense of life. We have another philosophy of life. We have other values. That is why any attempts to replace freedom with fear are not suitable for Ukraine. We will never accept this; hence no Russian army will ever be capable of winning over the Ukrainians.
[Klitina] I see. Please tell us what the probability of the use of nuclear weapons is. It is widely discussed, and this is what everyone in the world is afraid of.
[Ohryzko] In theory, it is possible to use anything. Still, I very much hope that even if one assumes that Putin has some psychiatric problems, these problems will not allow him to take such a decision. I nevertheless think that there are at least enough sensible at least military people around, who realize that this will mean a catastrophe for Russia and Putin personally. Thus, I think they will not let him take this inadequate step.
[Klitina] How do you evaluate the help of our allies, the European Union and the U.S.?
[Ohryzko] Thank God, their assistance is now starting to correspond to our needs. It was not so initially. There was no certainty that Ukrainians would withstand [the full-scale invasion]. Today they could ascertain this. We will all do everything; everyone will do as much as they can to stop this barbarian aggression. Therefore, the attitude of our Western partners has changed. They realize that Ukraine is not only defending itself but also its values.
Consequently, they are also interested in defending themselves with our hands, sorry for the cynicism. However, helping Ukraine with weapons, helping financially, helping by pressuring, and implementing sanctions against Russia. Therefore, a specific turning point has occurred, and this facilitates us in achieving victory in this war.
[Klitina] What will put an end to this war? Many experts say that a complete embargo on Russian oil and natural gas would end the Russian aggression. What is your opinion?
[Ohryzko] I think we must talk here about two factors. The first and the main factor is the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to defeat the enemy. This factor is decisive. It is not just my idea. It is the idea of many politicians who claim the war’s outcome will be decided on the battlefield.
At the same time, other experts are right to say that there is a severe influence on the situation from the economic point of view. And in this connection, the strengthening of economic sanctions is significant. And you are right to say that these sanctions should primarily be energy sanctions because the Russian Federation derives over half or even two-thirds of its income from the trade in hydrocarbons.
If a limitation or a complete embargo on these energy resources is imposed or other means to influence Russia is found, that will have a colossal positive influence on the Russian economy starting to drown. I think these are the two factors that will provide a very positive result for us in combination.
[Klitina] Good. Thank you for the brief interview and your comments.
[Ohryzko] Thank you.
