The rollback of Ukrainian troops stationed in the Donbas has been postponed due to Russia’s continued defiance of the ceasefire, Yuriy Kostiuk, deputy head of the President’s Office told Hromadske news organization.
The announcement of the rollbacks was regarded with similar alarm to the recently signed Steinmeier Formula, a controversial plan for peace embraced by President Volodymyr Zelensky, prompting protests called “No Capitulation” marches in Kyiv. Many critics view a rollback as a surrender to Russian-backed forces.
The rollback was initially scheduled for Oct. 7, and according to the guidelines of the Steinmeier Formula, was one of the prerequisites for local elections to start in the region.
Chief of the General Staff and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Ruslan Khomchak stated that, following the rollback, Ukrainian armed forces will be stationed at their positions in 2016. In the last few years, the Ukrainian army has been defending villages and fighting the Russian-backed assaults in the “grey zone,” advanced 1.2 kilometers.
The minister of defense, Andriy Zagorodniuk, assured that the proposed rollback would be small enough that if there were any truce violations by Russian-backed forces that the Ukrainian army could return quickly.
Kostiuk commented that in Luhansk Oblast, where forces have already retreated, there are police and other law enforcement, so it is not possible to say that after the rollback there will be no one in place to protect the local citizens. In order for the rollback to start, shelling and fire must stop for at least seven days. However, the front line has never been quiet for seven days in a row.
Minsk agreements
The rollback positions were written in the original Minsk agreement back in September 2014 after the Battle of Illovaisk, in which nearly 400 soldiers were killed, many by Russian troops and many while surrendering. But as is the case today, the agreement never went into effect because Russia repeatedly violated its terms.
This led to the second Minsk agreement in 2015, after battlefield losses in Debaltseve, which called for a ceasefire within 72 hours, withdrawal of heavy weapons, the release of hostages, delivery of humanitarian aid to civilians, full restoration of Ukrainian government control over the state border and constitutional reform in Ukraine to provide special status for certain districts in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. And again, the ceasefire deadline came and went.
As at Illovaisk in August 2014, Russian units deployed from across the border and attacked Debaltseve. As much as politicians hoped the Minsk agreements would lead to peace, five years on, none of the conditions agreed to in September 2014 and February 2015 have been implemented.
The future plan for peace: The Steinmeier Formula
The Steinmeier Formula proposes to hold elections in the occupied territories under Ukrainian legislation and supervision of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. If OSCE deemed these elections free and fair, then the special status of these regions would kick in.
However, as Zelensky made clear in his Oct. 3 video address explaining the Steinmeier Formula, there are important preconditions – including full Ukrainian control of its borders after the withdrawal of all Russian forces and their proxies from Ukraine.
The next steps towards peace depend on both sides obeying the cease-fire. For elections meeting international standards to take place, Russian forces and Russian-backed militants have to leave the territory, and Ukraine must regain control over the eastern border with Russia. In order for Ukrainian troops to rollback, the shelling must stop.
