A drop in cases, deaths, and hospital bed occupancy, combined with encouraging vaccine numbers, means Ukraine looks ready to absorb any Omicron or holiday travel-related COVID-19 spikes this holiday season.
As the holiday season hits full swing in Ukraine, the COVID-19 numbers are showing signs of improvement, though there are still some worrying trends.
First, the good news:
the average number of people dying in Ukraine from COVID-19 is down.
So, too, are the number of infections. And the number of vaccinated Ukrainians is growing substantially.
The not-so-good news? Ukraine still sits in the Top 5 in Europe for COVID-19 deaths per 100,000, the Omicron variant only arrived last week and has yet to spread among the population, and the government will miss its vaccine goal for 2021.
There is also concern about the increased spread of the virus as Ukrainians get set to travel over the holiday period.
The good news in depth
While the Omicron variant may have just arrived, Ukraine is nowhere near its COVID-19 peak of November.
There were 83 infections per 100,000 were recorded in Ukraine last week – just 24 percent of its peak and falling, according to statistics by Reuters. The average number of deaths has also dropped significantly in the last three weeks, to just 31% of its peak.
More than that, Ukraine continues to ramp up its vaccine distribution, with over 427,000 Ukrainians receiving their second doses in the last week. That brings the total to over 13.4 million Ukrainians that have received two doses – or 30.4 percent of the population.
The slowdown in cases means that Ukraine’s hospitals are in good shape before any Omicron or travel-related spike in cases.
Currently, half of Ukraine’s regions are in the ‘green zone’, meaning more than 75 percent of hospital beds remain available. Only six oblasts are above 33 percent occupancy – Ivano-Frankivsk, Transcarpathia, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Khmelnytsky, and Kyiv.
The not-so-good news
While Ukraine’s case rate may be dropping, its death rate remains high.
According to Reuters, over the last two weeks only Russia (1,010), Poland (414), and Germany (319) had a higher death toll than Ukraine’s 248 per day, although Ukraine’s rate continues to drop from its peak at 720 on Nov. 3.
Almost 95,000 Ukrainians have died of COVID-19 to date.
And while the vaccine rollout continues to ramp up, it still lags behind its European neighbours due to a slow rollout and continued vaccine hesitancy.
Ukraine vaccinated nearly 100,000 (99,296) Ukrainians last week, bringing the total to over 33 percent of the population with a single vaccine dose and over 30 percent fully vaccinated. The Ukrainian government had hoped to vaccinate at least 40 percent of the population by year’s end, down from its original goal of 70 percent when the vaccine was first available.
At the current rare of vaccination, it will take approximately 90 days to fully vaccinate another 10 percent of the population, meaning the government will miss its amended goal by about three months.
By comparison, Poland fully vaccinated 40 percent of its population by July 11. Meanwhile Romania, which like Ukraine also faces significant vaccine hesitancy, only reached 40 percent on Dec. 17.
It is estimated that at least 70 percent of the population needs to be vaccinated before herd immunity is reached.
