Ukraine Breaking News Today Live on 01-15-2025

Israel and Hamas have finally reached a ceasefire and hostage release deal after talks mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the US, marking a potential end to the bloodiest war to mar the region in decades.

Israel and Hamas agreed on Wednesday to a deal for a ceasefire and the release of hostages being held in Gaza following separate meetings with Qatar’s prime minister, a source briefed on the talks told AFP.

A US official confirmed the deal.

The General Staff of Ukraine said a shortage of frontline infantry motivated its transfers of aviation service members between armed force branches to bring infantry brigades to combat strength.

A major controversy has erupted over the reassignment of Air Force specialists to infantry roles, prompting President Volodymyr Zelensky to call for public clarification.

On Tuesday, Jan. 14, Vitaliy “Bart” Gorzhevsky, a non-commissioned officer (NCO) member of the 114th Air Force Brigade, posted a statement on Facebook on behalf of Air Force technical and service personnel. He detailed widespread cases of aviation specialists being reassigned to the infantry. The original post has since been removed without explanation.

Canberra may expel Russia’s ambassador after reports that volunteer fighter Oscar Jenkins, captured in Ukraine, was murdered, marking a historic breach of international law if true.

Australia is prepared to take “the strongest action possible” including the potential expulsion of the Russian ambassador if reports are confirmed that an Australian citizen was murdered after being captured by Russian forces, Reuters reported.

Oscar Jenkins, a teacher from Melbourne, was captured by Russian troops last December while fighting alongside the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).

An energy source told Kyiv Post that Russia targeted Ukraine’s Oparske underground gas storage on Wednesday morning, though reportedly no missiles reached their intended targets.

Russia was reportedly targeting two of Ukraine’s underground gas storage facilities in western Ukraine during a massive missile strike on Wednesday morning.

A source in Ukraine’s energy sector, who wished to stay anonymous, told Kyiv Post that Russia targeted an underground gas storage site in Striy and another near Drohobych, both located in the Lviv region.

Ukraine must be given “real security guarantees that everyone in the world, including Russia, will be afraid to exceed,” the Polish prime minister says.

Donald Tusk met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Warsaw on Wednesday to discuss future security solutions for the war-torn country, ahead of the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The leaders talked about potential post-war arrangements involving troops from Europe being stationed in Ukraine, as well as the country’s path to accession to the European Union and NATO.

The missile assault comes a day after Ukraine carried out its largest aerial attack on Russian territory since the beginning of the war.

[UPDATES] 6:40 p.m. Russia was allegedly aiming for two gas fields. One of which is Oparske underground gas storage, the second largest in Prykarpattia and located in Drohobych district Lviv region. “The storage is quite large - almost 2 billion cubic meters,” a source in Ukraine’s energy sector told Kyiv Post. 

The former Fox News anchor said the Kremlin’s takeover of Crimea and deployment of the Russian army to invade Ukraine’s Donbas region was “a minor” incident.

Pete Hegseth, President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Pentagon, faced a Senate panel on Tuesday. Amidst a barrage of hostile legislators questioning him about sexual assault and excessive drinking in the workplace, he made false and misleading statements about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, US relations with friends and allies, and US combat operations against ISIS.

He was also asked twice whether he was in favor of continued strong US support to Ukraine and twice avoided answering the question.

Chuck Pfarrer, former squadron leader of SEAL Team 6, on Russia’s Baltic plot

Polish prime minister says Poland will seek to expedite Ukraine’s entry into the EU.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Wednesday that Poland, which currently holds the rotating presidency in the European Union, will “break the impasse” and speed up Ukraine’s process to join the bloc.

“The Polish presidency will break the impasse that has been evident in recent months. And we will work together with Ukraine and our European partners... to speed up the accession process as much as possible,” Tusk told reporters alongside Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in Warsaw.

The Lukoil refinery is one of the largest producers of petroleum products in the Southern Federal District, processing 13.5 million tons of oil in 2023 alone.

A fire erupted at the Lukoil oil refinery in Volgograd’s Krasnoarmeysky district in the early hours of Wednesday, Jan. 15, the Moscow Times reported citing Russian Telegram channels

Residents reported hearing an explosion around 4 a.m., followed by towering flames and thick black smoke. Footage of the incident quickly circulated online, with some speculating that “something fell into the factory.”

Washington will also support Armenia’s defense sector reforms, according to a press release by the US Embassy in Armenia.

The US signed a strategic partnership agreement with Armenia on Tuesday, with clauses to bolster bilateral cooperation in economic, defense and social developments.

The initiative is known as the US-Armenia Strategic Partnership Commission, with the partnership aiming to “[expand] economic, and security and defense cooperation; strengthen democracy, justice, and inclusion; and increase people-to-people exchanges,” reads the Wednesday press release by the US embassy in Armenia.

Ukraine brings home 25 prisoners, including wounded soldiers and civilians, with the youngest being 24 and the oldest 60.

Ukraine and Russia conducted their first prisoner exchange of the year with Ukraine bringing home 25 Ukrainian men and women from captivity, reportedly returning an equal number to Russia.

“These are our soldiers and civilians,” President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on social media Wednesday afternoon, Jan. 15.

According to the South Korean intelligence reports, by the beginning of January, approximately 300 North Korean soldiers had been killed in combat, and about 2,700 were injured.

North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region have been ordered to kill themselves if they are at risk of being captured by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), according to South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS).

“North Korea has stressed to its soldiers to kill themselves to avoid being captured alive by the Ukrainian military,” South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported Monday, citing officials from the NIS.

President Vučić has a historic opportunity to act bravely and secure Serbia’s place among the world’s most advanced nations.

Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, recently issued threatening messages during a press conference, warning Serbia and its president, Aleksandar Vučić, of “painful consequences” if Belgrade decided to impose sanctions on Russia or take any action deemed hostile by Moscow. The immediate trigger for these threats was the fate of the Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS), majority-owned by Gazprom and Gazprom Neft, which has been recently sanctioned by the US. Serbia now faces a pivotal choice—yield to Russian pressure and threats or prioritize the interests of its citizens and chart its own path.

At the beginning of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, President Vučić declared that Serbia would not impose sanctions against Russia, pointing out that 85% of Serbian citizens support and have affection for the country. He also stated that this attitude could change if the non-imposition of sanctions began to directly threaten Serbia’s economic stability.

The BBC reported on Tuesday how the Kyiv housewife was promised her POW husband would be better treated if she committed acts of treason.

Svitlana, the 42-year-old wife of Dima, a Ukrainian army medic who had been a prisoner of war in Russia, had waited for news of her husband’s fate for more than two years.

Then, one morning out of the blue, she received a phone call from a Ukrainian number she didn’t recognize from someone calling himself Dmitry who promised her news of her husband.

Tennis players Kostyuk, Svitolina, Yastremska and Kichenok twins are among those volleying for more recognition in 2025, beginning with Australian Open.

Tennis’ first Grand Slam, going on from Jan. 12 – 26, 2025, has begun with the start of the Australian Open. The Ukrainian presence was quite formidable in Melbourne with three players seeded in the top 32 and a total of eight Ukrainians playing in the round of 128.

No. 18 ranked Marta Kostyuk earned Ukraine’s top seed (17th), followed by No. 29 Elina Svitolina (28th seed) and No. 33 Dayana Yastremska (32nd seed). No. 48 Anhelina Kalinina, No. 59 Katie Volynets, No. 95 Nadia Podoroska, No. 100 Yuliia Starodubtseva and No. 139 Daria Snigur made it eight Ukrainian women competing in singles at the Open. (Unfortunately, Starodubtseva, Volynets, Podoroska, Snigur and Kalinina suffered quick exits when all five of them were eliminated in the opening round of singles play.)

As Germany gears up for upcoming federal elections, the pro-Moscow Alternative für Deutschland party, backed also by Elon Musk, promises to return to business as usual with Russia.

Federal elections will be held in Germany on Feb. 23. In preparation for these elections, the Pro-Russian radical right party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is having its federal party congress. On Saturday the congress started later due to protests.

At the congress, AfD party leader Alice Weidel accepted her nomination to run for Chancellor.

Russia forces banks to provide loans to military companies working for the war against Ukraine – their volume has become so huge that its central bank can’t cover the system risk.

The Kremlin has forced Russian banks to provide preferential loans to uncreditworthy war-related businesses, provoking a 71% expansion in corporate debt which drives interest rates, inflation, and a potential bailout crisis. 

Russia’s central bank policy can no longer influence the surge despite increasing interest rates to more than 20% to combat 8.9% inflation, according to an executive summary from a “Russia’s Hidden War Debt” report, published by Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies Associate Craig Kennedy on Substack. 

The world in focus, as seen by Canadian leading global affairs analyst Michael Bociurkiw in a quick review of the biggest news in international media today.

A week after flames leveled huge swaths of Pacific Palisades and Altadena, Southern California remained under a severe fire threat as residents struggled to comprehend the scale of the loss.

An army of firefighters spent Tuesday putting out small fires before they got out of control, and continued building containment lines on the Palisades and Eaton fires in hope of preventing them from spreading.

Latest from the British Defence Intelligence.

• Russia launched approximately 1,700 One Way Attack Uncrewed Aerial Systems (OWA UAS) of varying types into Ukraine in the month of December 2024, a decrease from November’s total of 2,300. This was the first time that a decline in numbers has been seen since March to April2024. It is likely that weather factors impacted operations early in the month, possibly evidenced through several nights of waves greater than 100 OWA UAS that followed periods of particularly low or no activity.
• The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 53% of Russian OWA UAS were shot down, while the remainder were disrupted using electronic warfare or had already flown off course without causing a significant threat. Various factors can impact the monthly launch rates positively or negatively, however it remains likely that Russia can sustain numbers in excess of at least 1,500 per month.

The self-proclaimed republic has been unable to provide heating and hot water to residents since Jan. 1, when Moscow cut off gas to Moldova over a financial dispute.

The leader of breakaway Moldovan region Transnistria visited Moscow recently for talks on resolving its energy crisis, local media reported Tuesday.

The tiny self-proclaimed republic, which is reliant on Russia’s financial backing, has been unable to provide heating and hot water to residents since January 1, when Moscow cut off gas to Moldova over a financial dispute.

Russian forces reduced attacks in the Kharkiv sector “because they’re now concentrating on other areas… and cannot operate effectively in the Kharkiv region,” said an AFU official.

Drone operators from the Khartiya National Guard brigade eliminated 20 Russian soldiers and a T-80 tank in the Kharkiv sector of the front line, according to the Khortytsya Operational Strategic Group on Telegram.

“Good news: 20 fewer occupiers are on our land thanks to Khartiya UAV operators,” reads the caption accompanying the first video shared by the group.

A ceasefire that leaves Ukraine unprotected would only provide a pause before a wider war. Washington and Kyiv must agree viable security guarantees before any negotiations with Putin begin.

President-elect Donald Trump’s campaign boast that he could finish the war in Ukraine in 24 hours has increased expectations of an imminent ceasefire. But without credible Western security guarantees agreed beforehand, a ceasefire would be a prelude to a bigger disaster.

Proponents say that Trump’s threat to halt or decrease military assistance to Kyiv, while simultaneously warning Russia that he could give Ukraine all it needs on the battlefield, will bring both sides to the negotiating table. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky repeated in a recent interview that Putin is afraid of Trump, and that peace can be achieved through strength.

One of the captured North Korean soldiers fighting for the Kremlin previously voiced a desire to stay in Ukraine, while the other said he wanted to return home.

The two North Korean troops captured by Ukraine expressed no desire to seek asylum in South Korea, Seoul’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) spy agency said on Monday.

DPRK (North Korean) troops began aiding Moscow’s attempt to retake the Kursk region from Ukrainian control in late 2024, with Seoul claiming on Monday that around 300 have been killed alongside thousands wounded.

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• The Kremlin remains committed to achieving the original goals of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in any future peace negotiations — namely the destruction of the Ukrainian state, dissolution of the current Ukrainian government, demilitarization of Ukraine, and a permanent ban on Ukraine’s future membership in NATO.
• Patrushev stated that Russia’s goals in Ukraine remain unchanged and that Russia remains committed to achieving all of the goals that Russian President Vladimir Putin used to justify the full-scale invasion.
• Russian officials continue to deny the existence of a Ukrainian identity and state that is independent of Russia as part of ongoing Russian efforts to justify the destruction of the Ukrainian state.
• Patrushev stated that he believes that only Russia and the United States should engage in negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, and senior Kremlin officials are also questioning the role that European countries could play in such negotiations.
• The Kremlin will likely attempt to seize on potential future Russian advances into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for informational purposes, but these advances, if they occur, are unlikely to have significant operational impact.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale series of drone and missile strikes against military and defense industrial targets in Russia on the night of January 13 to 14.
• Ukrainian and Moldovan authorities continue efforts to find a solution to the gas crisis in Moldova as the pro-Russian breakaway republic Transnistria continues to refuse help from Ukraine or Moldova.
• Kremlin officials are attempting to exploit the energy crisis in Moldova to set conditions to justify future Russian aggression against Moldova.
• Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor reportedly caused a brief but widespread internet outage in Russia while operating restriction systems of its Sovereign Internet on January 14.
• Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions.
• Russia continues efforts to bolster military recruitment efforts by offering financial incentives to those who sign military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).