Ukraine Breaking News Today Live on 12-16-2024

The Russian-born Alexander Smirnov, a dual US-Israeli citizen, faces up to six years in prison under the terms of a plea agreement he struck with prosecutors.

A former FBI informant on Monday admitted to making up a story about President Joe Biden and his son Hunter taking $5 million in bribes from a Ukrainian energy firm.

Alexander Smirnov, 44, pleaded guilty to creating a false record in a federal investigation, as well as three counts of tax evasion for failing to pay taxes and penalties on $2.1 million in income for 2020 through 2022.

Ukrainian officials investigate a platoon commander accused of beating soldiers and extorting money, while lawmakers condemn delays and corruption within the military.

Ukrainian officials said Monday that they were investigating allegations of abuse by a commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine accused of beating soldiers and extorting money from them, as the war with Russia drags on.

The accusations were published by Ukrainska Pravda, which said a platoon commander abused soldiers without facing consequences because his father was the brigade's chief of staff.

Central bank interventions increase sharply as it battles inflation. Weekly Insight for Dec. 16

Ministry of Finance completes placement of 3.5-year reserve bond

Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) sold three UAH military bonds and completed the placement of the longest reserve paper.The primary auction saw significant oversubscription for all offered bonds. Military bonds received UAH9-11bn of demand each vs. the UAH5bn cap.

However, price competition was weak and there was no room for the MoF to lower interest rates. At the same time, reserve bonds saw 5x oversubscription. Bids came in with a wide range of interest rates, allowing the MoF to decrease the cut-off rate by 48bp to 15% and the weighted average rate by 63bp to 14.59%. See details in the auction review.

Although the center-left chancellor continues in a caretaker role and with a minority in parliament, the political turmoil threatens months of paralysis until a new coalition government is formed.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote on Monday, spelling the effective end of his troubled government and putting Europe’s biggest economy on the path to elections on Feb. 23.

Scholz had called the vote, expecting to lose it, weeks after his coalition collapsed. Later Monday he asked President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to dissolve the legislature soon and ask voters to head back to the ballot box.

Russian infantry are now within two kilometers of Pokrovsk

The pack of stray dogs – thin and rain-soaked – yelped in fear at the roar of incoming Russian artillery fire that echoed off abandoned Soviet-era buildings and an Orthodox church in frontline Pokrovsk.

They bustled into a bare grocery store in the eastern Ukrainian town, where the once distant and dull thuds of fighting have grown deafening and deadly as Russian forces have advanced to its gates over recent months.

At the Ukrainian Institute of New York, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UN presented a book of striking quotes by children caught up in a war they can scarcely understand.

Oftentimes the innocence of childhood is the most poignant vehicle for conveying a subtle yet profound truth.

For example: “What if all Ukrainians hide, Mom? Will ‘they’ [the Russians] go looking for us and there will be war all over the world?”

Putin boasts of significant volunteer recruitment, claiming 430,000 people had joined Russia’s military in 2024, compared with approximately 300,000 the previous year.

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed during a televised meeting with military generals on Monday, Dec. 16, that Russian forces held the upper hand along the entire front line in Ukraine and were accelerating their offensive.

“Russian troops are firmly holding the strategic initiative along the entire line of contact,” he said, describing 2024 as a “landmark year in the achievement of the goals of the special military operation” (SVO) — Moscow’s term for its war against Ukraine.

A representative from a Syrian rebel faction said it was in contact with Moscow and that Russia is not currently evacuating its air base, signaling potential future cooperation between the two.

Russia has been withdrawing troops and diplomatic staff from across Syria – including the capital Damascus – to its Khmeimim Air Base in northern Syria in coordination with a Syrian rebel group, an official from the rebel group said.

While some troops are being evacuated from the base to Russia by aircraft, as Moscow reduces its diplomatic presence in Syria, the official said there are ongoing discussions with Moscow about the granting of safe passage while confirming the Kremlin was not currently evacuating the air base.

Trudeau’s Canadian-Ukrainian political ally abandons him over policy dispute concerning Trump’s tariff threats.

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland in a surprise announcement on Monday quit over disagreements with Justin Trudeau on Canada’s response to US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats.

“Our country today faces a grave challenge,” Freeland, who also served as finance minister, said in a letter posted on X, pointing to Trump’s planned 25% tariffs on Canadian imports.

If money spent helping war refugees counts as money spent because Russia invaded Ukraine, then Europe is outspending the United States on Ukraine right now about three to one.

The collective value of Euros, Polish zlotys, British pounds sterling and other European taxpayer money spent on Ukraine’s defense against Russian invasion substantially outweighs greenbacks forked over by the United States. And if the cost of helping millions of Ukrainian war refugees is taken into account, the Ukrainian support gap is massive and not in America’s favor, newly released data from a German research group said.

A new study of foreign assistance to Ukraine published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy on Dec. 5 found that since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 the value of allocated American military assistance to date, to Ukraine, is equivalent to $63 billion. Total US assistance to Ukraine including financial aid over that time period ending in October 2024 was $83 billion.

A Ukrainian lawmaker has claimed Ukraine’s first major fighting formation trained exclusively outside the country is “in chaos.” A high-profile journalist said the unit lost 1,000 men to desertion.

The commander of a high-profile combat brigade that was Ukraine’s first major fighting formation to have been trained outside the country was replaced shortly after the unit returned home after months of training in France, and days before it went into combat, news reports said.

Col. Dmytro Ryumshin left command of the 155th Mechanized Brigade on Dec. 12. The formation had been created in mid-2024 and was formed, armed and trained exclusively in French training bases from August to November.

Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) said Sunday that water and food shortages have been reported in Moscow’s two remaining Syrian bases and ships currently anchored at sea.

Logistics challenges have led to food and drinking water shortages for Russian troops in Syria, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) alleged on Dec. 15.

In a Sunday Telegram statement, HUR said the shortages occurred in Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base and the Tartus Naval Base, as well as in warships currently anchored off the coast of Tartus. Moscow established a permanent military presence at both bases in 2017.

The destruction of a Russian Su-27 fighter at the Krymsk military airfield in, Krasnodar Krai on Dec. 14, causes a welter of criticism at rear area security measures from pro-Kremlin commentators.

Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) claimed via Telegram that a sabotage attack by its operators caused the destruction of a Russian Su-27 fighter aircraft at the military airfield in the Russian city of Krymsk, Krasnodar Krai, Saturday. It also said that the same group had set fire to and destroyed three Russian locomotives in the same area on the previous night.

Images on Telegram showed a fierce fire engulfing the aircraft, bearing the tail number “Red 16,” which certainly seriously damaged if it didn’t not totally destroyed the Su-27P (NATO-Flanker) air superiority fighter, which the independent Russian news site Astra initially identified as a more modern Su-30, the updated version of the Flanker.

Latest from the British Defence Intelligence.

• Russia has made further gains to the south of Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub in Donetsk oblast. Russian forces are currently approximately 3km from the southern outskirts of Pokrovsk, having reportedly taken the village of Shevchenko. Shevchenko itself lies at an intersection of two routes leading into Pokrovsk.Russia will likely continue to make gains towards Pokrovsk whilst continuing to advance westwards to the south of the town.
• Russian forces have highly likely intersected Velyka Novsilka's north-eastern logistics route, the T-05-18.In early December, Ukrainian forces reportedly regained control of the village of Novyi Komar, and continue to maintain one remaining supply route to Velyka Novsilka from the north.

SBU drones hit Russian munitions and fuel depots near Markine in occupied Donetsk, sparking massive explosions that continued through the night, sources told Kyiv Post.

In the temporarily occupied territory of the Donetsk region, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) recently conducted a successful special operation, destroying Russian storage depots containing artillery and mortar ammunition among other weaponry, a source from the organization told Kyiv Post.

“Security Service drones unleashed hellish explosions at artillery and mortar depots near the village of Markine in the temporarily occupied Donetsk region,” the well-informed source said.

Pro-Ukraine civil society groups slam the EU for failing to close loopholes and fully ban Russian fossil fuels in adopted 15th sanctions package.

From the Editors: As part of its series on Sanctions Busting, Kyiv Post is publishing a press release related to this topic issued on Dec. 12 by Business4Ukraine.

The Business4Ukraine coalition members, including Ukrainian peace and clean energy campaign group Razom We Stand, call on the European Union to go beyond timidly incremental and insufficient measures that are included in the EU’s 15th sanctions package.

Units of the DPRK army suffered significant losses during weekend operations, with at least 30 soldiers killed or wounded, according to Ukrainian intelligence sources.

The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine (HUR) reported via Telegram that North Korean (DPRK) army units were having to be replenished after suffering significant losses during assaults in the Kursk region.

“During Dec. 14 and 15, 2024, in the areas of the villages of Plekhovo, Vorozhba, and Martynovka, in the Kursk region of Russia, units of the DPRK army suffered significant losses - at least 30 soldiers were killed or wounded,” the Dec. 16 report read.

Report on a recent roundtable in Kyiv to discuss this topic.

A recent roundtable discussion titled "Ukraine – NATO 2024: From Strengthening Partnership to Exploring Security Paths" took place in Kyiv. It was organized by the Ukraine-NATO Public League jointly with the Public Council within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the support of the NATO Representation in Ukraine.

Held at the Ukrinform news agency, the event brought together prominent figures from military sectors, diplomacy and security. The key speaker was NATO's Senior Representative in Ukraine Patrick Turner.

Travelling opportunities to and within Poland by rail eased.

PKP Intercity has launched a series of new international train routes linking major Polish cities like Gdańsk, Poznań, and Wrocław with Prague.

The expanded offer includes the Baltic Express, a connection between the Tricity and Prague, via the Polish cities of Poznań and Wrocław and the Czech city of Pardubice.

The flight also carried members from the diplomatic missions of Belarus, North Korea and Abkhazia.

Russia’s foreign ministry said it has evacuated some of its diplomatic staff from Syria Sunday, a week after the fall of Bashar al-Assad.

“On December 15, the withdrawal of part of the personnel of the Russian (diplomatic) representation in Damascus was carried out by a special flight of the Russian Air Force from the Hmeimim airbase” in Syria, the ministry’s crisis situations department said on Telegram.

The West is responsible for whether Ukraine wins or loses the war. It must be held accountable and the most obvious source of funds to secure Ukraine’s victory is hiding in plain sight.

Ukraine can win the war against Russia. It has all the troops it needs – about one million men and women under arms. It does not need to mobilize more soldiers. The late Columbia University Professor Charles Tilly coined the expression “wars form nations,” and this war has cemented the Ukrainian nation. Ukrainian soldiers do not fight out of fear or for the hope of great remuneration as with Russian soldiers, but for Ukraine.

Ukraine only needs two more things to defeat Russia: money and arms.

Western support for Ukraine has been substantial, though insufficient. The apparent but unspoken Western idea has been to allow Ukraine to survive, but not to win. This is as immoral as mistaken. Russian President Vladimir Putin does not need Ukrainian territory. He needs permanent war to stay in power. If he suborns Ukraine, he will have to proceed with other wars. Therefore, Ukraine’s victory is crucial for the security of Europe. For Putin, a bad war is better than a good peace, because he needs war to justify his domestic repression. Russia’s main problem is Putin, just as Bashar Al-Assad was Syria’s fundamental problem.

Scholz will face parliament Monday to trigger the process towards February 23 elections.

Germany's embattled Chancellor Olaf Scholz will face parliament Monday to trigger the process towards February 23 elections, in the hope that he can weather a political crisis and win a second term.

Scholz, 66, whose coalition collapsed last month, has called a confidence vote which he is expected to lose, clearing the way for the dissolution of the Bundestag and a return to the ballot box.

But while Assad left Syria, Russia stood by, plundering what it needed: military bases in the Mediterranean and access to the remaining natural resources.

You can tell a lot about a person from the company they keep. And in the great schoolyard of geopolitics, Russia is the school bully who promises you protection when you face a serious threat.

He gives you a pat on the back, clenches his fist, and assures you that he will stand between you and trouble. You feel safe, almost powerful, when you lean on him. However, once the fight commences, the bully—your “protector”—suddenly vanishes, gazing off into the clouds or tying his shoelaces, seemingly uninterested in the entire situation. At best, he throws you something like, “Hang in there, you’re doing great! I’m here.” Of course, you come out of this fight puffed up like a beekeeper’s apprentice, without all your teeth.

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian forces conducted a roughly battalion-sized mechanized assault in the Siversk direction following a recent reported command change of the Russian forces operating near Siversk.
• The recent Siversk assault indicates that Russian forces appear to be learning to conduct more effective assaults but remain far from restoring maneuver to the battlefield.
• North Korean forces are reportedly facing expected struggles with high casualties and poor communication with Russian forces in Kursk Oblast, likely disrupting coordination between North Korean and Russian personnel and undermining Russian military operations.
• Russia's immediate plans for its military assets in Syria remain unclear as reports continue that Russia has secured agreements to keep its main military bases in western Syria while also withdrawing from its other bases in the country.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar.  
• Russian sources continue to complain about the Russian military's insufficient training system and inept military instructors.