Ukraine Breaking News Today Live on 12-08-2024

Ukraine and Estonia had jointly applied for the pysanka (Ukrainian egg decoration) to be recognized as a cultural heritage, according to the Congress of Ukrainians in Estonia (CUE).

The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) has officially recognized the Ukrainian tradition of egg decoration as part of the Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity. 

This decision was made during the 19th session of the UNESCO Intergovernmental Committee for the Safeguarding of Intangible Cultural Heritage in Paraguay. The session is running through Dec. 7.

What are the broader geopolitical implications if the the defeat of the Assad regime in Syria.

I have visited Turkiye several times over the past few weeks meeting with policy makers, journalists, think tankers, bankers, analysts and the like, so I thought I would post a few observations but formatted in a Q&A approach for my own ease of writing.

Q? What’s the Türkiye angle on developments in Syria?

The Ukrainian president’s Sunday statement marked the first official Ukrainian casualty tally released by Kyiv since Russia’s 2022 invasion started – which is lower than current speculations.

[UPDATES] Zelensky previously said Ukraine lost 31,000 troops in a February statement without disclosing the number of wounded, nor whether the number encompassed the casualties from 2014. The text has been edited to reflect the previous statements.

Ukraine lost 43,000 troops with a further 370,000 wounded since Russia launched its invasion in 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday. 

Despite the outward appearance of strength, cracks in Russia’s global strategy, like within Russia itself, are beginning to appear.

Alleged irregularities have prompted Romania to call off Sunday’s second round of presidential elections – though rare, election annulments are not without precedents worldwide.

Romania’s top court on Friday annulled ongoing presidential elections over alleged irregularities, after far-right candidate Calin Georgescu topped the first round – a decision with precedents around the world in the past two decades.

Gabon: coup

An hour after the announcement of Ali Bongo Ondimba’s election to a third term as president on Aug. 30, 2023, a military junta led by General Brice Oligui Nguema forced him out and denounced what they said was a rigged election.

Russian Bases in Syria Face Threat from Insurgents, Say Russian Military Bloggers

Two strategically-important Russian military facilities in Syria and Moscow’s very presence in the Middle East are under serious threat from rapidly advancing insurgents, Russian war bloggers have warned.

With Russian military resources mostly tied down in Ukraine where Moscow’s forces are rushing to take more territory before Donald Trump comes to power in the U.S. in January, Russia’s ability to influence the situation on the ground in Syria is far more limited than in 2015 when it intervened decisively to prop up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Latest from the British Defence Intelligence.

• The average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in the Russia-Ukraine conflict reached a new monthly war high during
• November 2024. The average daily loss rate was 1,523, according to Ukrainian General Staff reporting. This is the third straight month that Russian Forces have sustained new war high average daily losses. 28 November also saw a new war high of 2,030 losses in a single day, the first time more than 2,000 have been reported.
• November 2024 was also likely the most costly month of the war for Russia with a total of 45,680 casualties reported by the Ukraine General Staff. 41,980 Russian casualties were recorded in October 2024. November was the fifth straight month that Russian Forces have suffered an increase in monthly total losses.
• The high rate of casualties is likely reflective of the higher tempo of Russian operations and offensives. Russia is attempting to increase the pressure on Ukrainian lines as they seek to push Ukrainian Forces back on several fronts including Kursk, Kupiansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka. Russia's casualty rate will likely continue to average above 1,000 a day in December 2024 despite the onset of winter, with continued dismounted infantry attacks on multiple axes.

How long will it take the thug lording over the Kremlin and cowing the West to feels encouraged and empowered enough by his victory to return for more?

I recently returned from several weeks in Ukraine with a remarkable group of volunteers distributing hot pizzaand sweets to orphans, hospitals, schools, refugees, and other communities struggling to survive in a nation at war and a devastated economy and infrastructure.

Only two of us were of Ukrainian heritage, while 10others were Swiss, French, Scottish, British, Welsh, American, German, Canadian, and, at various other times, a dozen different nationalities. All paid their own way to get to Ukraine. Except for (very basic) lodging, occasional group meals, and a slice of pizza –no compensation was provided or expected. In exchange, they earned the right to be awakened by air-raid sirens, sit hours in unheated dank basements, stand in the cold until the freshly baked food was gone, and count the minutes till scheduled brown-outs.

How Russia continues to try to manipulate elections in other countries - the latest examples.

Executive summary

• Russia is pursuing an aggressive policy of election interference in the countries of the former USSR. In Moldova, where two rounds of presidential elections were held on October 20 and November 3, Russia sought to defeat the incumbent pro-European president Maia Sandu. In Georgia, where parliamentary elections were held on October 26, a victory for the ruling “Georgian Dream” party was in Russia’s interest. In both countries, Telegram served as a primary platform for disseminating pro-Russian narratives.‍
• We identified 133 political Telegram channels in Moldova, of which 98 maintain a critical stance towards pro-European president Maia Sandu. Most of these channels target Russian-speaking audiences, frequently referencing Russian politicians and publications from propaganda media. Between June and November, we identified over 1200 such reposts. Besides adopting Russian propaganda, these channels actively repost each other's content, forming interlinked networks.‍
• In the Georgian segment of Telegram, 38 of the 96 political channels support "Georgian Dream." A coordinated network exists among the channels related to the pro-Russian information portal "Alt-Info." This portal is affiliated with a television channel of the same name, which ceased broadcasting after the parliamentary elections, as well as with the Georgian political party "Conservative Movement," whose activities were banned in August 2024.‍
• Pro-Russian channels in both countries share ideological similarities – they oppose EU integration. In Moldova, they also oppose unionism – the movement advocating unification with Romania. Another trait of pro-Russian actors is exploiting the “Ukrainian scenario,” suggesting that if a country like Moldova or Georgia tries to get closer to the European Union, it could lead to a military confrontation with Russia. They blame this potential conflict on European-leaning politicians, labelling them as anti-Russian and controlled by Western powers.‍
• A common tactic of pro-Russian channels is to avoid expressing direct sympathy for Russia. Instead, they promote the benefits of neutrality for “ordinary citizens,” often arguing that better relations with Russia would benefit everyone economically. Another common theme is the defence of “traditional values,” typically expressed through an anti-LGBT agenda.‍
• We detected a 2-4 fold increase in bot activity on VK, one of Russia's most popular social networks, immediately after the elections in both Moldova and Georgia. In both cases, bots repeated themes from pro-Russian channels in Moldova and Georgia, attacking pro-European forces and accusing them of being "puppets" of the West. In Georgia, bots also described a scenario in which an opposition victory could lead to deteriorating relations with Russia, potentially escalating to renewed conflict and a repetition of the “Ukrainian scenario.”‍

Introduction‍

In a recent report, US intelligence stated that Russia uses information influence in other countries, including to undermine confidence in the institution of elections and representative democracy in general. Also, in 2023 the EU declared that they expect interference in the European elections by Russia and China “on an even larger scale.” Russia's influence in the West often takes the form of “soft power” – disinformation operations through its own or local media, whataboutism on political issues, or usage of local radical politicians to deepen cleavages within society.‍

On the other hand, in the countries of the former USSR, Russia is pursuing a much more aggressive policy, viewing them as the zone of influence and trying to intervene as much as possible. The Kremlin can subsequently transfer some of the methods developed in the post-Soviet countries to the West.

Faced with few options to finance its war on Ukraine, the Kremlin has boosted its gold holdings to record levels, sold on “trade routes” for hard currency. Spot prices have soared.

The casual, weekend investor may be given pause by this paradox: While inflation in the West is still uncomfortably high, and the US economy is roaring, the spot price of gold continues its historic climb. Normally, as the world’s major economies would heat up, investors would cool on precious metals, as the latter doesn’t yield any interest or dividends, even though it can be relied upon to retain at least some significant value.

Gold, then, traditionally has been seen as a safe harbor in bearish bond and/or equity markets.Why, then, has the price of gold continued an historic rise over the past two years, reaching an all-time high of $2,790.07 per ounce in October, as the world’s largest economy, for one, has boomed at the same time? On March, 20, 2020, $1,488 would buy you an ounce of gold.

The rebels’ lightning offensive has seen them taking multiple major cities within two weeks, including the capital Damascus on Sunday morning as shown by footage circulating online.

Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which ruled Syria with an iron fist for more than two decades with Moscow’s backing in recent years, has reportedly fallen. 

Rebel leaders issued a statement Sunday morning that Assad has fled the city, ending the five-decade-long Assad dynasty and potentially bringing the civil war that ravaged the nation for over a decade to an end. 

US President-elect Trump has openly scoffed at the billions of dollars in military assistance being sent to Ukraine and once boasted he could end the conflict in 24 hours.

US President-elect Donald Trump said on Sunday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is keen on a “deal” to end the war with Russia, after the pair met in Paris to discuss the future of the conflict.

French President Emmanuel Macron hosted three-way talks with Zelensky and Trump at the Elysee Palace on Saturday, as fears grow in Kyiv about the position of the incoming US administration.

A Ukrainian official said there have been no signs of demining work at local enterprises in the occupied Luhansk region despite Moscow’s claims of incoming investments.

A Ukrainian official challenged Moscow’s claims that investments have been coming into the Luhansk region under Russian occupation, noting that Russia “[has] not even started demining for more than two years.”

Artem Lysohor, head of the Luhansk Region Military Administration, said “no additional activity has been noticed on the territory of these facilities destroyed during the assaults by Russian troops” despite Moscow’s claims. 

When Ukrainian artist Michael Kmit arrived in Australia shortly after World War II, he infused the art scene not only with contemporary European influences, but his own neo-Byzantine style.

Michael Kmit (Михайло Кміт, 1910-1981) was a pioneering artist whose journey spanned continents and artistic movements, leaving an indelible mark on both the Australian and Ukrainian art scenes. Born in Lviv, Ukraine, Kmit’s early studies in fine arts in Krakow were shaped by the avant-garde influences of French Cubism and Italian Futurism.

Kmit became a key figure in the Australian-Ukrainian diaspora, selling his works locally and cementing his name in the Sydney hromada (Ukrainian community). It seemed like almost every second stylish babushka owned a Kmit, even the Sydney branch of the Plast, the National Scout Organization of Ukraine, had acquired one of his works, valued at over $10,000.

The new package features drones, ammunition for precision HIMARS rocket launchers, and equipment and spare parts for artillery systems, tanks and armored vehicles.

The United States on Saturday announced a new $988 million security assistance package for Ukraine as Washington races to provide aid to Kyiv before President-elect Donald Trump takes office.

Trump’s November election victory has cast doubt on the future of American aid for Ukraine, providing a limited window for billions of dollars in already authorized assistance to be disbursed before he is sworn in next month.

Romanian police raided houses on Saturday, a day after the top court canceled the presidential vote following allegations of Russian interference in favor of the far-right frontrunner.

Romania’s far-right candidate Calin Georgescu on Saturday urged voters to go to polling stations despite the country’s top court having scrapped the presidential elections over alleged irregularities amid claims of Russian interference.

The court’s shock ruling, coming just before the presidential run-off which had been due Sunday, opens the way for a new electoral process starting from scratch in the EU and NATO member state bordering war-torn Ukraine.