Ukraine Breaking News Today Live on 09-27-2024

The world in focus, as seen by a Canadian leading global affairs analyst, writer and speaker, in his review of international media.

U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Russia is likely to retaliate with greater force against the United States and its coalition partners, possibly with lethal attacks, if they agree to give the Ukrainians permission to employ U.S., British and French-supplied long-range missiles for strikes deep inside Russia, U.S. officials said. The intelligence assessment, which has not been previously reported, also plays down the effect that the long-range missiles will have on the course of the conflict because the Ukrainians currently have limited numbers of the weapons and it is unclear how many more, if any, the Western allies might provide. The assessment highlights what intelligence analysts see as the potential risk and uncertain rewards of a high-stakes decision that now rests with President Biden, who met with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine at the White House on Thursday. The findings may help explain in part why the decision has been so difficult for Mr. Biden to make, and show the internal pressures on him to say no to Mr. Zelensky’s request. U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters and internal deliberations, said it remained unclear what Mr. Biden would decide to do. The intelligence assessment describes a range of possible Russian responses to a decision to allow long-range strikes using U.S. and European-supplied missiles — from stepped up acts of arson and sabotage targeting facilities in Europe, to potentially lethal attacks on U.S. and European military bases. - NYT

Changes in Russia’s nuclear doctrine that were announced by President Vladimir Putin are intended to discourage Ukraine’s Western allies from supporting attacks on Russia, the Kremlin said Thursday. The United States and the European Union both denounced the latest statements by the Russian leader as “irresponsible.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that the revisions in the document outlined Wednesday by Putin are a “warning signal to those countries about the consequences in case of their involvement in an attack on our country with various assets, not necessarily nuclear ones.” In the strong, new warning to the West, Putin said that any nation’s conventional attack on Russia that is supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on his country. The threat was clearly aimed at discouraging the West from allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with longer-range weapons and appears to significantly lower the threshold for the possible use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. - AP

Zelensky’s Victory Plan, Biden’s Ukraine Aid Package, and the Trump Shadow

In early September, the Ukrainian military introduced deadly “Dragon drones” designed to fly low and slowly over enemy positions spilling burning thermite on Russian positions.

Russian forces have begun using drones modeled after Ukraine’s “Dragon Fire” thermite-spewing UAV, using technology reportedly stolen from Ukrainian designs, according to a Forbes report, citing Russian military bloggers and defense experts.

In early September, the Ukrainian military introduced a new type of drone that was soon dubbed as “Dragon Fire,” designed to fly low and slow over enemy positions while deploying thermite – an incendiary mix of powdered aluminum and ferrous oxide (rust) that burns at temperatures that can reach 3,000 degrees Celsius (5,400 Fahrenheit).

The war in Ukraine again featured prominently in speeches by world leaders during the third day of the UN General Assembly in New York, on Thursday, Sept. 26.

World leaders addressed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, along with other pressing global issues, on the third day of the 79th UN General Assembly in New York.

Here is a summary of some of their key remarks.

US intelligence agencies worry that Ukrainian strikes on Russia with long-range weapons could retaliate with sabotage attacks in Europe and on US military bases.

According to informed sources cited by The New York Times, US intelligence assessments suggest that if Ukraine is allowed to use Western long-range weapons to strike Russian territory, Moscow may respond militarily by organizing sabotage in Europe or deadly attacks on US and allied military bases.

If Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized covert operations, such as those carried out in the past by the GRU, Russian military intelligence, it would achieve the aim of inflicting losses on Washington and its allies while reducing the risk of provoking a large-scale conflict.

A video posted on YouTube channels in May 2022 showed a man who gives his name as Stephen James Hubbard and said he was in the city of Izyum in the Kharkiv region.

A Moscow court on Friday began hearing the case of a 72-year-old American man accused of fighting as a mercenary in Ukraine, Russian news agencies reported.

"Moscow City Court began hearing the criminal case of 72-year-old American... over participating as a mercenary in the armed conflict on the side of Ukraine," RIA Novosti news agency said.

The new UK government which pledged to deliver 12 of its 155mm self-propelled guns to Kyiv within 100 days of taking office is on schedule to send 16,

The UK announced on its gov.uk website on Thursday that it was on course to exceed the 12 AS-90 155mm self-propelled howitzers it will send in military aid to Ukraine. In July 2024, the newly elected UK government initially pledged 10 more AS-90s along with spares and maintenance support.

After a stockpile review by the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) the number of guns was initially increased to 12 and yesterday announced a new total of 16. It says that 10 of the artillery guns have already been delivered to Ukraine, with a further six to follow in the next few weeks.

Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) cyber specialists attacked 800+ Russian servers, destroying critical military and financial data, halting operations and crippling infrastructure.

Computer specialists from Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) carried out cyberattacks against more than 800 servers in various regions of the Russian Federation between Monday, Sept. 23 to Thursday, Sept. 26, military intelligence sources told Kyiv Post.

According to one of the news site’s contacts, HUR’s cyber corps completely destroyed documents and data stored on the affected servers belonging to military, administrative, and financial institutions that support Russia's operations against Ukraine.

The number of Ukrainian servicemen is growing, and while many military personnel condemn their colleagues, there is no single solution to stopping the growing trend.

On Sept. 21, 2014, a soldier of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ (AFU) 56th separate motorized infantry brigade of Mariupol, Serhiy Gnezdilov, wrote a post on Facebook in which he announced that he was going to the SZCh (AWOL – absent without leave), that is to desert his post. Under Ukraine’s imposition of martial law that is potentially punishable by imprisonment for 5 to 10 years.

“From now on, I will go SZCh [abandon his military post], until the establishment of clear terms of service, or until my 25th birthday, with five years of impeccable military service behind me. I'll cross it out: perfect,” Gnezdilov wrote on Facebook in a lengthy justification for his actions.

Serhiy Kolyada on the challenges of getting a fair hearing for Ukraine in Washington these days.

The three, Kathryn Diss and Fletcher Yeung from Australia's ABC News and Romanian journalist Mircea Barbu, are being investigated for illegally crossing the Russian border.

Russia's FSB security service said Friday that it was investigating three foreign journalists for reporting in parts of Russia's Kursk region occupied by Ukrainian forces, bringing the total of such investigations to 12.

The three, Kathryn Diss and Fletcher Yeung from Australia's ABC News and Romanian journalist Mircea Barbu, are being investigated for illegally crossing the Russian border, state news agency RIA Novosti reported.

The press expresses doubts – regarding the necessary US support and the feasibility of the plan.

For three days Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been promoting his "victory plan" at various levels in the United States. The plan involves forcing Russia into submission with the help of massive military support from the West. Today he is due to discuss the concept with President Biden. The press expresses doubts – regarding the necessary US support and the feasibility of the plan.

Ukraine's last chance

Ukraine's Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 32 Shahed drones overnight, alongside an Iskander-M/KM-23 ballistic missile and two X-22 cruise missiles.

Russian forces launched a drone attack on the Ukrainian southern Odesa region in the early hours of Friday, Sept. 27, targeting the port city of Izmail, near the Romanian border. Oleh Kiper, head of the regional military administration, confirmed the assault.

Latest from the British Defence Intelligence.

• Russian forces have made further gains in the vicinity of Vuhledar in south-eastern Ukraine. It is highly likely that Russian forces now threaten the town from three sides.They are already contesting the outskirts of the town, against which Russia has made repeated assaults since2022. It is likely that Russian forces will continue to pressure on this heavily defended part of the line over the next week.
•  In central Donetsk oblast, Russian forces are fighting within the eastern half of Toretsk and south of Pokrovsk.They have made only slow progress around Chasiv Yar. It is likely that Russian forces are attacking multiple objectives simultaneously to stretch Ukrainian forces.However, this has also prevented Russia from massing forces on a single point of the line to have a more significant effect.

With the proposed broadening of Russia's nuclear rules, Putin is looking to dissuade Western countries from broadening support for Kyiv.

Vladimir Putin's proposed revision of Russian nuclear policy signals a worrying readiness to use the ultimate weapon against Ukraine and even NATO members, but it remains far from certain the threat will be translated into action, analysts say.

The proposed broadening of Russia's nuclear rules comes as Moscow's invasion of Ukraine stretches into its third year and Kyiv seeks permission from Western allies to use long-range weapons to strike targets deep inside Russia.

Ukraine is bracing for a difficult cold season after Moscow's bombing campaign has ravaged its critical infrastructure.

The United Nations lacks the funds needed to help Ukraine through the winter, as Russian bombardments have wiped out half the capacity of the power grid, the UN's refugee agency said Thursday.

"The reality is that the funding situation for organisations like ours is far too low at this time of the year -- we are 47-percent funded," UNHCR's Representative in Ukraine, Karolina Lindholm Billing, told AFP.

Ukraine’s Air Command West shared the first impressive footage of Rheinmetall's Skynex “Shahed-killer” air defense system on Facebook on Sept. 25.

Ukraine received the first Skynex anti-aircraft systems from Germany’s Rheinmetall in April 2023 but held off until Wednesday this week to publicly release footage of the system in action.

The video, which was likely filmed at a Ukrainian Air Force (UAF) training ground, shows the German system’s 1,000 rounds per minute rate of fire of its 35 x 228mm Advanced Hit Efficiency and Destruction (AHEAD) programmable ammunition. Each round weighs 1.7 kilograms (3.75 pounds) with a projectile weight of 750 grams (1.65 pounds) and is loaded using seven-round clips. The projectile releases 152 3.3-gram (0.12 ounce) tungsten flechettes in close proximity to the target and are programmed to self-destruct should they miss. 

Putin is scared of the UK’s Storm Shadow missiles – and fears their use by Ukraine might bring about a decisive end to his now not-so-special “special military operation.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin is once again clinging to his nuclear teddy bear. On Wednesday, he unleashed his latest hollow Armageddon threat to use nukes in an attempt to bully his way to a win in Ukraine.

Putin expanded Russia’s nuclear policy to now include use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states who use conventional weapons provided by nuclear powers such as the United States and the United Kingdom to attack the Russian motherland.

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Germany, France, and the United States announced several immediate and more long-term aid packages for Ukraine on September 25 and 26.
• The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is reportedly struggling to coordinate combat tasks with the Russian military despite having control over the counterterrorism operation against the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued assaults in Kursk Oblast but neither side made further advances in the area.
• Russian forces recently advanced north of Kharkiv City and Chasiv Yar and east and southeast of Pokrovsk.
• Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian military command for holding joint military exercises with Laos, arguing that such exercises demonstrate that Russia is not learning from its battlefield experience in Ukraine.