Ukraine Breaking News Today Live on 08-03-2024

On the surface, Russia's release of foreign hostages and political prisoners is good news, but there’s a catch or two, or three.

This week's surprise exchange of very different categories of prisoners between Russia and the West continues to raise significant questions, despite all the positives.

These include: How and on what terms was this agreement reached? Why was the circle of those freed from the modern Russian and Belarusian gulags so selective or narrow? What could this exchange mean? And what have we learned from the first statements of the leading liberated Russian liberals?

Following the first attack in September of 2023, the $300 million kilo-class submarine underwent repairs and was tested in the waters of Sevastopol harbor. After the second attack it sank.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine conducted a significant operation in the temporarily occupied Crimea early morning on Saturday, August 3, successfully targeting a Russian kilo-class submarine capable of deploying Kalibr cruise missiles and four S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the Russian Black Sea Fleet's Rostov-on-Don submarine in the port of Sevastopol, sinking it. This marks the second attack on the submarine during the full-scale war.

Pro-Kremlin milbloggers have posted images of a captured Ukrainian “Baba Yaga” drone fitted with electronics, antennas and what appears to be a laser guided munition.

A report from the military issues website The War Zone (TWZ) discusses what appears to be the latest Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) development centered on its Baba Yaga heavy bomber drone. The repurposed heavy industrial quadcopters that have been used to drop mortars and mines, act as relay stations for swarms of first-person view (FPV) drones now appear to have been modified to carry and fire guided projectiles.

The Russian milblogger site “Victory Drones” published images on Telegram on Aug. 2, that showed a captured Baba Yaga fitted with electronic boxes and antennae along with an unusual munition. The weapon, which is marked “BK-30F” (in Cyrillic), seems to have a possible laser guiding seeker head with a large, notched mid-section fragmentation warhead and guidance fins.

The Hetman Ivan Vyhovskyi is the second warship of this class constructed at the Turkish shipyard for Ukraine. The first, the Hetman Ivan Mazepa, is currently undergoing sea trials.

Ukraine's second Ada-class corvette, the Hetman Ivan Vyhovsky (F-212), was successfully launched in Turkey on Thursday, August 1.

The launch ceremony took place at the RMK Marine Shipyard in Istanbul, attended by Ukraine's First Lady Olena Zelenska, Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov, Naval Forces Commander Olexiy Neyizhpapa, Baykar owner Halyuk Bayraktar, and Hero of Ukraine Mustafa Dzhemilev.

Thursday’s prisoner exchange, while it freed those illegally detained, it promoted hostage diplomacy, lacked transparency and raised concerns about the West’s commitment.

The prisoner exchange between Russia and the West, which saw the release of 16 people held by Moscow, was at first sight a welcome event for their families and those campaigning for adherence to human rights and freedoms. Yet, it also perpetuated a dangerous precedent that weaponized hostage diplomacy on the part of a dangerous adversary, and raised questions about the value placed by the West on the lives of Ukrainians, including Ukrainian children, with up to 20,000 illegally held in Russia.

It is without a doubt that the 16 individuals traded by Russia deserved their freedom. The decision to undertake painstaking, secret talks, a crucial phone call from President Biden, high-level discussions with European allies, and substantial diplomatic pressure to secure the release of prisoners is a worthwhile use of taxpayer-funded time by public servants of Western states.

Ukrainian officials have expressed anxiety about the possibility of secret negotiations between the West and Moscow, fearing they might be excluded from crucial discussions.

The recent prisoner exchange between Russia and the West has stirred concern in Kyiv about its potential implications, the Washington Post reports.

Although President Volodymyr Zelensky and other top officials have not publicly commented, the complexity and significance of the deal have not gone unnoticed.

Post election stand-off in Venezuela and beyond intensifies.

Venezuela braced for fresh protests Saturday, after President Nicolas Maduro's disputed election victory was ratified -- and a growing number of nations recognized his opposition rival as the true winner.

Both Maduro and the opposition, led by Maria Corina Machado and her presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, have called on their supporters to demonstrate this weekend, in the wake of Sunday's controversial vote.

The historic East-West prisoner swap Thursday brokered by Ankara has marked the triumphant return of Turkish diplomacy onto the world stage, despite quarrels with its NATO allies.

The historic East-West prisoner swap Thursday brokered by Ankara has marked the triumphant return of Turkish diplomacy onto the world stage, despite quarrels with its NATO allies.

US President Joe Biden thanked Turkey for its part in the largest East-West exchange since the Cold War involving two dozen prisoners, including a top Russian intelligence colonel and hitman, that all came together on the tarmac of Ankara airport.

Latest from the British Defence Intelligence.

• The average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine has fallen over the past two months from a conflict high of over 1262 per day in May to 1140 in July 2024. Despite this reduction, the last three months have been the costliest for Russian forces since February 2022, according to Ukrainian General Staff reporting.
• The reduction in daily average is likely indicative of Russian forces consolidating positions on the Kharkiv axis. Although this new approach has increased the pressure on the frontline, an effective Ukrainian defence and a lack of Russian training reduces Russia's ability to exploit any tactical successes into wider operational gains.
• Russia's casualty rate will likely continue to average above 1,000 a day throughout August 2024 as Russia continues offensive operations on a wide front from Kharkiv in the north to Robotyne in the south of Ukraine.

Jose Manuel Pinto Teixeira served as EU Ambassador to Ukraine in Kyiv from 2008 to 2012. Kyiv Post interviewed the Portuguese diplomat about those crucial years and how they foreshadowed the war.

Jason Jay Smart: At what point did everything start to“fall apart” between Russia and Ukraine?

Jose Manuel Pinto Teixeira: The situation with Russia, that we have today in Ukraine, was started 20 years ago by Vladimir Putin who wished to undermine Ukraine’s stability. Especially since the Orange Revolution in 2004, which led to the electoral victory of [Viktor] Yushchenko, a committed pro-European and pro-Western candidate.

What does renowned analyst Timothy Ash see as the main takeaways from this week’s Russia-West prisoner swap.

Some big conclusions herein from this week’s prisoner exchange between Russia, and the U.S./West:

Biden/Harris: A huge win for Biden and Harris. Trump has made a big thing of the fact only he could get a deal on hostages, and most had assumed that Putin would wait for a Trump win in November to use the prisoner exchange deal as leverage in any future negotiations over Ukraine. The fact Biden/Harris were able to close a complex deal with support of key allies shows the importance of U.S. allegiances which Biden has doubled down on following the invasion of Ukraine.

Russia allegedly considered providing weapons to the Houthis in response to the Biden administration permitting Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied arms on Russian soil.

Russia was preparing to supply missiles and military equipment to the Houthis in Yemen at the end of July, but abandoned these plans following warnings from Saudi Arabia, CNN reports, citing multiple sources.

According to two sources, the United States separately requested that Saudi Arabia help persuade Moscow to cancel the weapons transfer.

The Polish foreign minister has said that efforts to free the Polish journalist held in Belarus are being “pursued separately” from the latest large-scale prisoner swap between Russia and the West.

On Thursday, the largest prisoner exchange since the Cold War took place between Russia and the West, where some 24 prisoners were released from both sides in Turkey’s capital, Ankara.

The Polish foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, was asked why Andrzej Poczobut, a journalist and activist from the Polish ethnic minority community in Belarus, wasn’t included in the latest prisoner swap.

Serhiy Kolyada on the Raszists worrying that 'something new in the air' could make a diffrence.

Athletes from Russia and ally Belarus are competing under a neutral banner after being banned from world sport following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Ivan Litvinovich from Belarus on Friday became the first athlete competing as a neutral at the Paris Olympics to win gold -- but it will not appear in the official medals table.

The 23-year-old retained his title in the men's trampoline final, with China's Wang Zisai and Yan Langyu taking silver and bronze.

The operation was conducted by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and Ukraine's Military Intelligence (HUR) in collaboration with the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has confirmed that a massive overnight drone assault targeted critical military facilities in Russia's Rostov region early morning on Saturday, August 3, striking the Morozovsk military airfield and fuel tanks at the Atlas plant. 

"The operation was carried out by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (HUR) in cooperation with the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU)," the publication reads.

The largest prisoner exchange between Western states and Russia since the end of the Cold War took place on Thursday.

The largest prisoner exchange between Western states and Russia since the end of the Cold War took place on Thursday. Russia and Belarus released 16 prisoners, including US journalist Evan Gershkovich, Russian human rights activist Oleg Orlov and opposition activist Vladimir Kara-Murza. Ten prisoners were handed over to Russia, including Vadim Krassikov, also known in Germany as the 'Tiergarten killer'.

Light and darkness

Several Western countries are decreasing military aid to Ukraine. This has to stop.

During a recent interview, the former Commanding General of US Army Europe (2014-2017), Lieutenant General (Retired) Ben Hodges, stated that Western commitment is not yet fully geared for Ukraine to win the war and its decision-making and provision of aid to Ukraine was incremental and “drip, drip, drip.”

“Unfortunately…our administration, the German government, and several other governments have not yet fully committed to helping Ukraine win…The priority from the administration seems to be escalation management…that’s why you end up with bad policy decisions or policies that just don’t make any sense, and they’re not connected to an end state. If you have a clearly defined end state, which I think should be to help Ukraine defeat Russia because it’s in our strategic interest, then we would be providing them everything they need to defeat Russia…”

It predicted there would be a net outflow of 400,000 people this year, while the outflow in 2024 would be 300,000 people.

Ukraine's central bank has predicted emigration levels this year will be far higher than previously forecast, largely due to power cuts caused by Russian attacks on energy facilities.

"The worsening of the energy situation and slow normalisation of the economic conditions will lead to a larger outflow of migrants abroad in 2024 and 2025 than previously expected," the National Bank of Ukraine said in a report released Thursday.

S&P's decision follows the July 24 decision by Fitch -- another top US ratings agency -- to downgrade Ukraine's credit rating to "C" from "CC," leaving it just one notch above default.

The US ratings agency S&P cut Ukraine's credit rating to "selective default" on Friday, citing the war-torn country's failure to make a coupon payment on an existing bond. 

"The rating actions reflect the missed payment on the coupon of Ukraine's 2026 Eurobond," S&P said in a statement explaining its decision to downgrade Ukraine's credit rating to "SD/SD" from "CC/C." 

The children of the Russian sleeper agents arrested in Slovenia who were released as part of yesterday’s prisoner swap only learned their true nationality on the plane to Moscow.

The eight Russian adults and two minors who were released as part of the Aug. 1 prisoner exchange were surprised to find a red carpet laid out for them and to be greeted in person by President Vladimir Putin at Moscow’s Vnukovo-2 government terminal.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said at a press briefing on Friday the head of state wished to be there as “a tribute to the people who had served their country.”

Ukraine has dealt a financial blow to Hungary’s leadership, but in doing so did not violate any points of its association agreement with the EU.

Ukraine's sanctions against the Russian company Lukoil have created a lot of noise in Hungary and Slovakia. The two central European countries are trying to maintain a more loyal course towards Russia than other EU members.

Landlocked, Hungary and Slovakia still use the Soviet Druzhba oil pipeline, which runs from Russia through Ukraine. In view of this, they were granted exceptions in the sixth sanctions package, which allowed them to exclusively continue importing Russian oil through Ukraine.