The probability of a renewed invasion from the territory of Belarus is currently low but may increase in the spring, according to Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) spokesman Yevhen Silkin.
“The probability of the aggressor repeating its invasion of Ukraine from Belarus is very low, but it cannot be completely excluded,” Silkin said. “According to our assessment, by the end of the year, the enemy will not be able to accumulate enough forces and funds for a second offensive. But in the spring, such a threat may increase significantly,” he added.
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According to Silkin, both the Kremlin and Belarusian regimes are participating in a joint military operation. For its part, Belarus is providing airspace, material support and ammunition. In addition, most of the Belarusian armed forces are stationed along the border areas.
Official data indicate that 10,000 mobilized Russian Federation troops, 170 tanks, 200 armored fighting vehicles and 100 mortars are deployed in Belarus.
According to the head of the Department of International Military Cooperation of Belarus Valery Revenko, Belarus reserves the right to conduct preventive strategic deterrence measures to avoid an attack or to neutralize an internal armed conflict.
On Oct. 20, Ukrainian military intelligence reported that Belarusian authorities are closely monitoring the chaos that is taking place within the framework of the so-called “partial mobilization” in the Russian Federation.
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November, 12, 2024
According to the Ukrainian Intelligence office, Belarusian authorities realize that in the event of a partial mobilization being announced in Belarus, the situation will become even more complicated and may lead to a social explosion in the country.
Under the guise of intensification of mobilization measures, Belarusian special services are covertly studying the possible reaction of society and likelihood of protest actions.
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