ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) recruitment programs are reportedly failing to compensate for the rising Russian casualty rate amid costly advances in Ukraine.
• The Coalition of the Willing reaffirmed the necessity that Ukraine receive binding security guarantees as part of a larger peace plan and reiterated the members’ commitment to participate in peace negotiations.
• The Kremlin continues to reject security guarantees for Ukraine and seeks to deny European participation in peace negotiations on Ukraine.
• Ukraine’s Western partners continue efforts to boost Ukraine’s air defense umbrella, particularly to combat Russian ballistic missiles.
• France and Italy granted Ukraine licenses to produce Franco-Italian glide bombs and French SCALP missiles in Ukraine, as Ukraine’s partners continue efforts to boost Ukraine’s own defense industrial base (DIB).
• Ukrainian forces struck the Salavat Oil Refinery on the night of July 13 to 14, the only major Russian refinery that Ukrainian forces had not previously struck in 2026.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
• Russian forces launched eight Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles, two Kh-59/69 guided cruise missiles, and 135 drones against Ukraine overnight.

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