ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 27, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• The Kremlin is intensifying its cognitive warfare effort aimed at coercing the United States to make decisions about the war in Ukraine that are favorable to Russia, including by blaming the United States for Russia’s own failure to meaningfully engage in negotiations.
• Kremlin officials continued to reject Trump’s proposed ceasefire while reiterating Russia’s commitment to its original war aims.
• Russia continued nuclear saber-rattling efforts in response to Trump’s dismissal of the Russian Burevestnik missile test.
• Both Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to advance in the Pokrovsk direction, underscoring the fluid and interspersed nature of the frontline on this sector of the front.
• Ukrainian sources continue to note the porous nature of the frontline and Russia’s reliance on infiltration missions within Pokrovsk.
• The Russian military command is reportedly deprioritizing offensive operations in the Dobropillya tactical area to focus on Pokrovsk itself.
• Ukrainian strikes on the Belgorod Reservoir dam (southeast of Belgorod City and 11 kilometers from the international border) along the Siverskyi Donets River are reportedly degrading Russian positions in the border areas northeast of Kharkiv City.
• Balloons flying into Lithuania from Belarusian airspace are impeding operations at the Vilnius Airport.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole and in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole.

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