Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence doubts that Russia will opt for the destruction of the Kakhovka dam.
On Oct. 24, Budanov expressed this analysis in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda. He noted that the Russian occupants have only partially mined the Kakhovka dam, and the detonation of explosives will not lead to the destruction of the facility.
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“Russians have carried out the mining to destroy the dam partially. Tens of tons of explosives are needed to ruin such a structure,” he said.
Budanov noted that the dam’s destruction would cause flooding of the Kherson region along the banks of the Dnipro. Russia will lose even theoretically the possibility of supplying water to the North Crimean Canal and Crimea until the dam is rebuilt. It will take a long time and will be very difficult.
According to Budanov, destroying the Kakhovka dam will jeopardize the functioning of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is inextricably linked with the dam. He stressed that blowing up the Kakhovka dam would cause an environmental disaster.
The intelligence chief also noted that blowing up the Kakhovka dam would complicate the advance of the Ukrainian army only for two weeks, but the Russians would be forced to retreat directly to Crimea.
“In other words, if you destroy it, a scenario follows. Are they ready for that? I don’t think so,” the intelligence chief said.
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November, 21, 2024
Regarding the possibility of partial destruction of the dam, Budanov noted that this might lead to the failure of the lock and engine room, making the dam unusable for its intended purpose. Still, the North Crimean Canal will remain, there will be a partial water spill.
On Oct. 20, President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that Russians had mined the dam and units of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. In case of an explosion, the water supply to a large part of southern Ukraine may be destroyed.
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