ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• The Kremlin is weaponizing ongoing ceasefire negotiations and deliberately misrepresenting the status and terms of a future ceasefire agreement in order to delay and undermine negotiations for a settlement to the war.
• Kremlin officials are leveraging narratives about Ukrainian strikes and combat operations in Russian territory to justify rejecting peace negotiations with Ukraine and continuing the war to a domestic Russian audience.
• US Special Envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg stated that US officials will conduct “shuttle diplomacy” to engage bilaterally with both Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
• Russia continues to strengthen its bilateral relations with North Korea, despite growing warnings from the US against deeper Russian-North Korean cooperation.
• Russian officials also continue to deepen ties with the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
• Ukraine’s European allies continue efforts to provide Ukraine with military assistance and bolster Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB).
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Belgorod Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Kupyansk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
• Ukrainian and Western defense officials estimated that the Russian monthly casualty rate is between 20,000 and 35,000 servicemembers.

Authors: Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, Davit Gasparyan, Olivia Gibson, Daria Novikov, and Frederick W. Kagan..

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