Hundreds of long-range Ukrainian drones – along with a few surprise missiles – have pounded targets deep inside the Russian Federation continually during a recent high-pressure White House push to get a ceasefire between the two countries.
By many measures, the Kremlin is struggling to stop waves of Ukrainian robot aircraft from blowing things up inside Russia, in some cases repeatedly. Kyiv strike planners argue they are winning.
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A Kyiv Post review of Ukrainian drone and missile strikes launched deep into Russian Federation territory since March 9, when US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia to launch talks with a Ukrainian delegation to broker a swift end to the Russo-Ukrainian War, found that Kyiv-launched drones and hit targets deep inside Russia that night and every one after it but one.
Ukraine’s crosshairs have been squarely fixed on Russian energy production capacity, with targets confirmed to have been attacked by jet- and prop-propelled drones, including oil refineries, fuel pumping stations and reservoirs, and air defense facilities nearby.
It has been the most intense and damaging air bombardment suffered by Russia since World War II.
But railroad infrastructure and depots, air bases, power transmission stations, arms production facilities and even a drone factory camouflaged as a cement plant also have been hit.
An unofficial Kyiv Post count found that at least 20, and probably more than 30 individual major facilities had been struck since Rubio’s meetings with the Ukrainians.
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It has been the most intense and damaging air bombardment suffered by Russia since World War II.
In most cases, the drones have attacked at night in coveys of 10-50 aircraft, often in waves. Almost always, the fact of an attack was first confirmed by local officials and social media, and then later announced by the state agencies running Ukraine’s deep strike campaign against Russia, the national security service, the SBU, and the national military intelligence service HUR.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday, following a telephone call with his US counterpart Donald J. Trump on Wednesday, said Kyiv would be willing to call off its drones, following a negotiated agreement with Russia on specific targets, on both sides, that would not be attacked.
Zelensky said Ukraine was willing to stop attacks against Russian energy infrastructure placed on that list. He seemed to leave open the possibility of further Ukrainian attacks against other targets.
Kremlin spokesmen have repeatedly stated Ukraine’s drones hit only civilian homes and businesses and that the attacks, relative to Russian military might, are just pinpricks.
A Kyiv Post compilation of long-range Ukrainian attacks against Russia from March 9-20, using open sources, found, however, solid evidence of an effective bombardment campaign that is accelerating.
In reverse chronological order:
March 20 – Engels-2 Air Base, Saratov region. Jet-propelled drones, possibly Peklo (Ukrainian: Пекло = Hell) hit an ammunition storage site and set off explosions lasting for hours.
Engels-2 is one of three bases used by the Kremlin for heavy bombers that launch missile strikes at Ukrainian homes and businesses.
Ukrainian media reported the drone strike hit hours after a Russian Air Force Il-76 transport jet delivered more missiles for the heavy bombers. Local officials said it was the “largest-ever attack by unmanned aerial vehicles.”
March 19 – Kropotkin oil refinery, village Kavkazkaya, Krasnodar Krai region. Propeller drones or falling debris hit the refinery and ignite level-4 (worst possible) class fire.
A total 105 firefighters and 45 emergency vehicles responded to the scene. The fire was still burning a day later.
Kropotkin is a key terminal for transferring Russian oil moving from Kazakhstan to the Black Sea by pipeline. Industry sources said tanker loading was slowed but not stopped.
March 17 – Yetsk military airfield, Rostov region, at least 10 explosions. No information on damage, if any.
Same day, Astrakhan region, drones set an oil refinery on fire.
March 16 – Drones shot down over Rostov and Voronezh regions, targets not clear.
Officials report drone numbers were relatively low, less than 50 total.
March 15 – Oil refinery, Volgograd region. Drone strikes or falling debris hits a production facility run by the Russian energy giant Lukoil.
A fire in the nearby Krasnoarmeysky district of the city was reported hit.
Nearby airports temporarily halted flights. Same day, early morning hours, a small number of drones are shot down or hit the ground in Moscow’s eastern and southern suburbs.
March 14 – This was one of the most damaging days of Ukrainian strike operations against Russia in months.
Oil refinery, Tuapse, seaside Krasnodar Krai, southwest Russia.
A new Ukrainian weapon, the “Long Neptune” cruise missile, in its combat christening, was used for the first time in combat.
The weapons hit a production facility operated by Rosneft.
Ukrainian officials later reported the missiles flew 621 kilometers (386 miles) and that the weapon’s max range is 1,000 kilometers (621 miles).
Locals reported hearing explosions, prior to hearing air raid sirens. Reportedly, the site is the Russian military’s main facility for supplying fuel to army, navy, and air force units in southwest Russia.
More than 120 firefighters with 39 engines responded to the scene. According to news reports, the fires burned for more than 72 hours.
On the same day, drones hit an oil tank farm near the town of Stary Oskol, in the Lipetsk region.
On the same day, drones hit a 500 kV power substation near the village of Velets, Belgorod Oblast.
This cut power to Russian railroad facilities in the area and reduced electricity deliveries to the adjacent Lipetsk, Oryol and Bryansk regions. A critical link for Russian oil deliveries to Europe, the Stanova pumping station, went offline as well.
On the same day, drones struck an ammunition storage site near the village of Radkovka, Belgorod region. Ukrainian officials claimed bunkers containing S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft missiles were blown up.
On the same day, drones struck the Davydovska gas compressor station, Tambov region.
March 13 – Obukhovo, Kaluga region, drone factory. In a late-night strike, drones hit and damaged a purported attack drone manufacturing site concealed on the premises of the Kaluga Aerated Concrete Plant. Local officials confirmed damage to the site and said communications and infrastructure also had been hit.
March 12 – Possible day off for Ukraine drone troops, no reports of drone strikes noted.
March 11 – Moscow city and environs, air defense and fuel production facilities. Officials report more than 100 drones – the most intense attack against the Russian capital of the entire war – reached airspace above Moscow. Three civilians were killed by debris hitting a meat warehouse, 17 were injured. Multiple hits were reported at the Moscow Oil Refinery, which, per reports, produces 40-50% of Moscow’s gasoline and diesel supplies. Local trains were canceled due to rail damage near Domodedovo airport.
On the same day, drones hit Dyagilevo military airfield, Ryazan region
On the same day, drones hit a Druzhba oil pipeline pump site in Oryol Oblast. This stopped Russian oil shipments to Hungary by pipeline. Hungary’s pro-Russia government led by authoritarian President Viktor Orban accused Ukraine of energy terrorism.
Mar 10 - Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery, Samara Oblast, drone strike. Four explosions were reported. The refinery is a major producer of jet fuel for key Russian Air Force combat aircraft like the Su-27 fighter and the Tu-22MZ heavy bomber.
March 9 – Kombinat Burevestnik, Cheboksaray, Chuvashia. A single drone strike is reported, according to Ukrainian officials after a flight of more than 1,300 kilometers (808 miles). through Russian air space. Local media and officials confirm the explosion.
On the same day, Ryazan oil refinery, Ryazan region. Drones hit and set afire one of Russia’s main sites for military jet fuel production. Local media reports explosions. Ukrainian military social media put the strike location at: 50.82354295, 40.58099618
On the same day, Novolipestk Metallurgical plant, Lipetsk region. At least seven explosions and fires reported. The facility manufactures steel products for combat vehicles and warships.
In addition, Ukraine’s national military intelligence agency HUR, in images published on March 19, claimed that over the past week, it struck air defenses placed in the Russian-occupied Crimea peninsula.
According to that source, the air strikes destroyed 12 major anti-aircraft radars, one S-300 heavy anti-aircraft missile launcher, three Pantsir-S1 gun/missile close air defense systems, two air defense command and data fusion centers. Two tugboats and a transport helicopter also were hit but it’s unlikely that had effect on air defense capacities. HUR published video documenting the strikes exclusively by drones, but it was not possible to confirm the damage independently.
Crimea has been heavily militarized by Russia. It’s probable the HUR strikes took down some but not all air defense systems there, possibly enabling drone swarm attacks on targets further east, particularly in Russia’s Krasnodar and Rostov regions.
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