Why and How is Russia Targeting Odesa. Part 1

Despite ceasefire negotiations, Russia demonstrates that its claims to Ukrainian territories have not disappeared – and nor does it appear likely that Russia will stop its aggression against Ukraine. One example is Ukraine’s most important port city – Odesa.

The high-profile murder of one of Odesa’s leading public figures and the intensification of the shelling of Odesa mark the next stage of Russia’s efforts to expand into Ukrainian territory.

This million-strong southern city is the largest port on the Black Sea and Ukraine’s maritime gateway. Russia attempted to advance to Odesa in the spring of 2022, but Ukraine defeated its troops in the eastern neighboring Mykolaiv region, near Voznesensk.

Notwithstanding, Russia continues aerial attacks on the city. Over the past two months, there have been few nights without large-scale shelling.

And on Wednesday, March 19, Demyan Hanul, a patriot and one of the city’s leading pro-Ukrainian activists – who fought against pro-Russian elements in Odesa, supporting the Ukrainian state and army – was buried.

His assassination on the morning of March 14, when he was shot dead walking down the street, sparked celebrations among Russian propagandists.

Russia had publicly placed a $10,000 bounty on his head, and a Moscow court last year convicted him in absentia for protecting Ukrainian interests on Ukrainian territory.

His assassination marks a new period in the battle for Odesa between Ukraine and Russia in a Russian hybrid war that’s been ongoing for, by some estimates, decades.

Together with Odesa’s public figures, emergency responders, and city authorities, Kyiv Post analyzes how significant the threats to Odesa are now.

Ukraine’s trade gateway

Odesa is not just a major city in southern Ukraine but also a key trade hub.

Without it, Ukraine would become a “no-sea country,” facing severe new challenges in foreign trade, which would make it highly vulnerable to economic and, consequently, military pressure.

Additionally, Odesa sits at the crossroads of railway and highway routes leading to Romania and Moldova – countries whose officials have no illusions that they’re immune from becoming the next victims of Russian imperial aggression.

Notably, the unrecognized “Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic” – a part of Moldova occupied by Russian troops – is only about 78 miles (126 kilometers) away.

Currently, the breakaway region is squeezed between Ukraine and Moldova, but Russian propagandists openly state that if they capture Odesa, Transnistria, as it’s better known, would immediately be incorporated into the Russian Federation.

This would create new threats for the Balkan countries and even Turkey.

Historical claims

Russia’s claims to Odesa are, per usual, “legitimized” through historical narratives – alleging that the Russian Empire and its tsars founded the city. The claims aren’t true.

While Odesa did experience rapid development in the 19th century under the Russian Empire, the city existed long before that – nearly 700 years. It was known as Kotsyubiyiv in Ukrainian and Khadjibey in Tatar.

The name of Odesa’s largest estuary, Khadzhibeysky, originates from this earlier history. Maps from the 17th century clearly show the city some 150 years before the Russian Empire arrived.

In the 1790s, after Russia conquered the region, Empress Catherine II ordered the port to be renamed Odesa and the city to be rebuilt according to a new model.

Over time, it became the center of a governorate, and Russian rulers erected monuments to assert their control. However, the city remained predominantly non-Russian and very multinational, with significant Ukrainian, Moldovan, Greek, Jewish, as well as ethnic Russian communities.

Today, according to the latest census, 60% of Odesa’s population identifies as Ukrainian, while 30% identify as Ukrainians of Russian origin.

Non-stop attacks

Russian strikes on Odesa are relentless. And emergency responders report that the intensity of attacks has been increasing over the past two months. The arsenal laid against Odesa includes Shahed drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles.

In the past two weeks alone, parts of the city have repeatedly lost electricity and heat. Additionally, ships in the Odesa port have been targeted, and port infrastructure has been damaged. Among the victims were foreign nationals – Syrian citizens. And the number of Odesa residents killed in recent months is in the dozens.

“This reminds us of last year. January was relatively quiet, but as March approached, heavy shelling intensified, and it became a real nightmare. We lost many of our rescue workers,” says Maryna Averina, head of the press service for the State Emergency Service of the Odesa region.

“The same pattern is emerging now. The energy infrastructure is under attack, but many residential buildings are also suffering. Some fires are so intense that we spend eight, nine, and sometimes ten hours extinguishing them. We use every resource available – our firefighters, emergency responders, National Guard fire services, volunteers, and sometimes even assistance from colleagues in other regions.”

Vladyslav Balynskiy, a local public figure who has long monitored pro-Russian provocations in the city, said that Russian strikes often coincide with disinformation campaigns in Odesa’s pro-Russian social media groups.

“This is evident. Whenever there are missile strikes, they simultaneously spread panic, blame the Ukrainian authorities, and claim that Ukraine is responsible for Russia’s attacks because it supposedly refuses peace. This argument is absurd – the aggressor is always responsible for the aggression. But the point is that these military strikes and manipulative messages are always coordinated,” Balynskiy said.

According to Balynskiy, this is only the beginning of efforts to destabilize Odesa.

He said he is convinced that even if a ceasefire occurs (which remains uncertain), the campaign to undermine the city and the region will persist – shifting instead to other forms of hybrid aggression.