Belarus’s Sham Election Could be Lukashenko’s Last, Says Opposition

Sunday’s discredited elections in Belarus will likely be President Aleksander Lukashenko’s last, a senior figure from the country’s exiled democratic forces has said.

Franak Viačorka, chief advisor to opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, added that this is not the time for mass anti-regime rallies.

Speaking to TVP World, he also warned that Belarus should not be handed to Russia “as a consolation prize or bargaining chip” in any negotiations around ending the war in Ukraine.

Responding to a recent report about Russia’s increased influence over Lukashenko’s regime, Viačorka said that taking Belarus out of Moscow’s sphere of influence was in the interest of the European Union and NATO, and could function as a “security guarantee” for Ukraine’s independence.

‘He’s old, he’s sick’

This weekend’s presidential polls, which have already been branded a “total sham” by the European Commission, are likely to result in a comfortable victory for the authoritarian Lukashenko, rubber-stamping his 30-year-long rule.

“We call it the ‘special electoral operation,’” Viačorka said, riffing on the Russian government’s infamous term for its invasion of Ukraine.

“It has nothing in common with elections. It doesn’t have alternative candidates, no observation, a lot of KGB, military, a lot of threats to people.”

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All of Lukashenko’s opponents are in prison or in exile and any form of criticism against Lukashenko is banned in Belarus.

But they could prove to be his last, Viačorka believes.

“I’m sure that for Lukashenko, this election will be the last one,” he said.

“He is old, he’s sick, he doesn’t generate energy anymore. He also understands this.”

‘Not the time’ for more mass protests

Mass protests erupted the last time Belarusians went out to elect a president, in 2020.

Tsikhanouskaya, who only decided to stand after her activist husband was arrested and blocked from putting his name forward, ran a campaign advocating democratic reforms and the release of political prisoners.

While official results gave Lukashenko a landslide, Tsikhanouskaya’s team claimed she had received between 60% and 70% of the vote where ballots were counted correctly.

The ensuing unrest brought hundreds of thousands of Belarusians onto the streets in unprecedented scenes, and a harsh crackdown led to 7,000 arrests, allegations of detainees being tortured and at least three deaths, according to Human Rights Watch.

Viačorka said that the opposition is not advocating mass rallies this time round, saying that the wider conditions are not right.

“It’s not that window of opportunity,” he said.

“We ask people to stay safe on this day, and to show their protest by other means... Inside the country, where they’re forced to vote, we asked them to vote against all [candidates]. This is also a form of protest.”

Russia’s ‘quiet conquest’

Belarus, a country of 9 million people, is in a different place today to where it was five years ago.

While Tsikhanouskaya effectively heads an EU-based government-in-exile, standing shoulder to shoulder with Western leaders in international conferences, the regime in Minsk seems to be under increasing Russian influence.

A recent report by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that the 2020 protests, coupled with the conflict in neighboring Ukraine, have been used by the Kremlin as “leverage” to accelerate long-term efforts to bring Belarus into the Russian Federation, in what it calls a “quiet conquest”.

In return for Moscow’s support in fighting the protest movement, Lukashenko has had to agree to further political, economic and military integration, analysts claimed, citing Russia’s recently acquired permanent defense bases in Belarus as a key example.

‘Belarus must not be a bargaining chip’

Viačorka agrees with the ISW’s assessment. But Western governments must not give up on Belarus, he warned. The democratic opposition is making the case for an independent future for the country, in light of increasing pressure for a solution to the war in Ukraine following the return to power of U.S. President Donald Trump.

“In case of a possible negotiations on Ukraine, it’s very likely Putin will be asking to give him Belarus, and this is what we must not allow to happen,” said Viačorka.

“Belarus must not be given to Putin as a consolation prize or bargaining chip.”

For that to happen, it’s key that Ukraine comes out of the war feeling victorious, he said, adding that taking Belarus out of the Kremlin’s grip could be one of the security guarantees that Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has consistently asked for.

“While Lukashenko is in power and Belarus remains under Putin’s control, there will be constant threat to Lithuania, Poland and Latvia, and there will be threat of a new attack, a new invasion [from] Russia and there will be a threat of new provocations on the border.

“If we speak about the peace formula of Zelenskyy, the neutrality of Belarus perfectly fits this formula because it will be a security guarantee for Ukraine if Belarus becomes democratic.”

‘Lukashenko is fragile’

Despite the widely-accepted illegitimacy of Sunday’s election, observers will be keeping an eye out for the Belarusian people’s reaction to the results. For Viačorka, this is not the moment for the public to rise up, like they did in 2020. So when could that “window of opportunity”, as he put it, swing open?

“It could be connected to Ukraine, could be connected to economic prices, to sanctions, to social issues,” he said.

“Lukashenko’s power is fragile and I think we must find these weak spots and use them.

“And when geopolitical events around Belarus happening, that could open for us, you know, the chance to speak about a new round table or a new wave of protest.

“There are many scenarios, but we must be in a good shape when they appear.”