Reality Bites – Trump Tells Kellogg to End War in Ukraine in 100 Days

US President Donald Trump now realizes that achieving a peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine is going to be much more difficult than his optimistic prognosis both before and during the election campaign, unnamed sources have told the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that.

In a Wednesday article the publication says Trump has set retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, his special envoy to Ukraine, a 100-day deadline to end the war in Ukraine. The former army commander was chosen for the post based on the peace plan that he had come up with last year.

The WSJ and many others believe that because Russia has already called Kellogg’s roadmap a “non-starter” and the special envoy a “relic of the Cold War,” he will have little or no chance of succeeding – unless Trump himself takes a lead in any negotiations.

Most commentators believe Kellogg got the job because Trump was “dazzled” by his military record. Trump also liked the “thrust” of his ideas for achieving peace, to the degree that he was willing to overlook his lack of diplomatic training or experience. Others are more disparaging, saying that, Kellogg is little more than a “yes man.”

An unnamed member of the US National Security Council is cited by the WSJ saying: “Trump enjoys his [Kellogg’s] company and sees him as a loyal guy, but he has never had any significant political influence. He certainly won’t come up with anything that deviates from what Trump is trying to achieve.”

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The Kellogg peace plan

The plan Kellogg came up with last year, first published by the America First Policy Institute (AFPI), was based on a “carrot and stick” approach to get Russian and Ukraine to both come to the negotiating table. In summary the key points of the plan were:

• Both sides should agree to a ceasefire and attend peace talks – both Switzerland and Slovakia have offered to host any negotiations.
• The front line would be frozen at its current position with neither side having to cede territory but accepting the principle that occupied Ukrainian regions could be returned through future diplomatic agreement.
• The US will continue to arm Ukraine only if it agrees to participate in negotiations – the outgoing Biden administration ramped up arms supplies in December to put Kyiv “in the strongest possible [negotiating] position.”
• A proposal to partially lift sanctions against Russia would be made to encourage Moscow to take part in peace talks.
• Russia would be warned that if it refused to negotiate the US would increase its level of support to Ukraine. Trump implied on a Jan. 21 news conference that he would consider increasing sanctions against Moscow if it did not “play ball.”
• Ukraine’s membership to NATO could be postponed for a “long period of time,” to encourage Russia to participate in negotiations, and Kyiv would be offered a “comprehensive peace agreement with security guarantees” by the US. Ukraine’s position is that NATO membership must remain on the table.
• Funds for the restoration of Ukraine could be obtained through the introduction of a tax on the import of Russian energy resources.

Russia’s pre-conditions

Much of the analysts’ concerns about the viability of the Kellogg peace plan is based on positions that President Vladimir Putin stated in June, and which other senior Kremlin figures have consistently taken. These were restated as recently as Monday during an online meeting of Russia’s Security Council. Many of these positions directly conflict with the US proposals.

While Putin said he was “open to dialogue” with Trump’s new administration, this could only take place if Russian interests were respected, and that the [unspecified] “root causes” of the war were addressed.

In summary, the Kremlin’s pre-conditions, which are viewed by most commentators as a demand for Kyiv’s capitulation include:

• Any ceasefire would only be possible if it was more than just a freezing of the fighting but aimed at a final, binding resolution to the causes of the war.
• Russia would not negotiate over the four regions of Ukraine that are “now part” of Russia: Crimea, the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts (including those parts Moscow does not currently control) which Putin now says is in response to its citizens’ calls for “self-determination” in accordance with [Moscow’s interpretation] of “the UN Charter.”
• A simple delay to Ukraine joining NATO no matter how long was unacceptable – Kyiv should abandon all plans to join the alliance and declare itself a neutral country.
• Ukraine must enact legal guarantees to respect and protect the rights and interests including the language and culture of its Russian-speaking minorities.
• All sanctions against Russia must be lifted.

Some commentators are concerned that Moscow will interpret Trump’s demand to end the war and bring it to a peaceful conclusion as “over-eagerness” to secure peace at any price – which would be to Russia’s advantage and Ukraine’s disadvantage. Such concerns have reinforced the pessimistic view that Kellogg will be unable to square the circle between the two sides and secure any peace, much less a just one.