- Uncertainty concerning the future of Russia’s presence and capability in the Eastern Mediterranean remain high. Following the collapse of the Assad regime, Russia’s former Syrian ally, Russia’s Permanent Mediterranean Task Group (PMTG) does not currently have access to its Tartus naval base for maintenance and logistical support. There is no comparable alternative base for the PMTG in the region.
- The future of Russia’s bases in Syria remains unclear whilst there is political uncertainty in the country. However, Russia is almost certainly seeking to retain a presence in the Mediterranean. Its ability to logistically support both its military and its Private Military Contractors in Africa, as well as limiting the reputational damage incurred through the fall of the Assad regime, will almost certainly be priorities for the Russian government. Russia’s intent to redeploy any forces or equipment to potential alternative location in North Africa remains unclear.
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- The Russian leadership almost certainly considers the Ukraine conflict to be their primary concern. Russia’s prioritization of the Ukraine conflict likely degraded Russia’s ability and capacity to keep the Assad regime in power.
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According to Ukrainian lawmakers, servicemen from mobile firing groups trained to operate anti-aircraft weapons are the ones to be transferred to the Ground Forces.
Jan. 17