North Korean Forces in Kursk Could Be Completely Destroyed by April 2025

A military contingent of 12,000 North Korean (DPRK) soldiers fighting in Russia’s Kursk region could be killed or wounded by mid-April 2025, according to a new report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

“North Korea reportedly transferred roughly 12,000 North Korean personnel to Kursk Oblast, and the entirety of this North Korean contingent in Kursk Oblast may be killed or wounded in roughly 12 weeks (about mid-April 2025) should North Korean forces continue to suffer similarly high casualty rates in the future,” the ISW said.

According to the report, Pyongyang’s troops have been sustaining approximately 92 casualties per day since their involvement in combat operations began in early December 2024. In early January 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that 3,800 North Korean soldiers had been killed or wounded.

According to the South Korean National Intelligence Service, as of Jan. 13, 300 North Koreans had been killed, while another 2,700 were injured.

North Korean forces will likely continue to suffer a larger ratio of wounded to killed in action – as is typical for armed conflict – and it is unclear if or when injured North Korean soldiers will return to combat, the report speculated.

Ukraine and South Korea both claimed in mid-October that Pyongyang had deployed troops to aid Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, likely as a result of a mutual defense pact signed in June.

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In early October, Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate (HUR) claimed that Pyongyang had deployed troops to reinforce Moscow’s troops in Ukraine. In addition, Kyiv Post had reported, citing HUR sources, six North Korean officers killed in a missile strike, with 18 more of their troops having allegedly deserted their positions near Ukraine.

HUR Chief Kyrylo Budanov said on Oct. 18 that Pyongyang was preparing to send 11,000 troops to aid Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian officials announced on Saturday, Jan. 11 that Ukrainian forces had captured the first DPRK soldiers fighting alongside Russian troops in the Kursk region. Russian and DPRK troops often finish off their wounded comrades to eliminate evidence of North Korea’s involvement in the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine.

The first soldier was captured on Jan. 9 by the 84th Tactical Group of the SSO, and the second by Ukrainian paratroopers. Both were transferred to Kyiv, where they are being held under conditions compliant with international law.