President-elect Donald Trump’s campaign boast that he could finish the war in Ukraine in 24 hours has increased expectations of an imminent ceasefire. But without credible Western security guarantees agreed beforehand, a ceasefire would be a prelude to a bigger disaster.
Proponents say that Trump’s threat to halt or decrease military assistance to Kyiv, while simultaneously warning Russia that he could give Ukraine all it needs on the battlefield, will bring both sides to the negotiating table. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky repeated in a recent interview that Putin is afraid of Trump, and that peace can be achieved through strength.
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Support for ending the war
Among Ukrainians, support for ending the war is growing. The proportion willing to concede territory in exchange for peace has risen to 32 per cent from 10 per cent in 2022, though 58 per cent still reject the proposition. The problem is finding a viable pathway to a just and durable peace.
In Ukraine, trust in the Russian regime is non-existent. Moscow has broken multiple agreements by invading Ukraine, not least the Budapest Memorandum, also co-signed by the US, UK and France. The shadow of the more recent Minsk Agreements also looms large. Since 2014, Ukraine has agreed to over 17 ceasefires with Russia, all of which were violated. The Minsk Process was used to subvert Ukraine using political means: to pressure Kyiv to recognize Russia’s fomented Donbas enclaves and give them veto power over Ukraine’s future.
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If external pressure mounts on Zelensky and he agrees to a ceasefire deal quickly, the implications would be far-reaching. Leaving Ukraine in limbo, with no defense treaty or meaningful collective security arrangement, will constitute political suicide for the president. Zelensky would face a strong backlash from Ukrainian society considering the high price it has paid in the war.
Ukrainians know that if the ceasefire has no viable mechanism of enforcement and Ukraine stands alone against the same militarist Russia, it would create a time-bomb for Ukraine’s future and a pause before a new and possibly wider war. That is why Ukrainian intellectuals are beseeching the West not to succumb to appeasement.
The Georgia playbook
If Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a ceasefire now, it would be to buy time to readjust his economy and reconstitute his military.
Russian ground forces have lost more than 700,000 troops either dead or wounded without even fully gaining control over the Donetsk region. Nor have they dislodged Ukrainian forces from Kursk. But there is no sign of de-escalation by Moscow as Putin puts the economy even further on a war footing.
Putin will try to claim victory if the frontlines are frozen roughly along current positions. His army indeed occupied an additional 4000 square kilometers of land and gained a water supply to Crimea. The Kremlin can spin disinformation that an attack on Ukraine was preventive and succeeded in protecting Russia from a bigger disaster.
But he is likely to agree to a ceasefire only if he is confident he can ‘finish the job’ of bringing the rest of Ukraine under his control. He would likely seek to do so by manipulating the ensuing elections – as Russia did in Georgia after first invading and occupying 20 per cent of its territory in 2008 and last year hijacking its EU integration through a political process.
If martial law is lifted in Ukraine, elections could be held within six months. Moscow’s aim would be to install a puppet candidate in Kyiv, flooding Ukraine with disinformation about Zelensky’s “treason,” Western “betrayal,” and how Ukraine “was drawn into the war against its people’s will.”
Hints of this betrayal narrative are already visible in Ukrainian public opinion, where around 80 per cent believe that Ukraine can succeed if only the West provides adequate military support and continues sanctions on Russia.
The threat to reconstruction
If Ukraine were to revert to a grey zone once again, with a war possibly restarting at any time, it would mean certain death for its European dream and EU membership.
The country desperately needs investment to rebuild its economy. Reconstruction will cost at least $500 billion. Without credible security arrangements, this will not come. Since 2014 the country’s population has dropped by ten million to 36 million people. Putin is achieving his goal to depopulate the largest country in Europe.
A ceasefire along current lines would also leave Russia in control of key assets, thwarting Ukraine’s economic potential. Since 2022 Russia has occupied the largest nuclear power plant in Europe in Zaporizhzhia, cutting it off from Ukraine’s energy grid.
The country’s industrialized east was a powerhouse of its economy and could jump-start post-war growth. If, say, Pokrovsk is occupied, Ukraine will lose Europe’s largest source of coke and face a collapse of its metallurgy industry.
Critical minerals are another battleground. Ukraine possesses one-third of all European lithium deposits, and two mines are currently under Russian occupation.
Ukraine also produced 7 per cent of global titanium output. The Zaporizhzhia Titanium and Magnesium Factory is dangerously close to the frontline. Russia has already included this region in its constitution as part of Russia. Putin will surely demand that Ukraine withdraw its troops from this and other regions before negotiations (or even a ceasefire) start.
A ceasefire would also provide an opportunity for Russia to restore its dominance in the Black Sea. Ukraine has destroyed 25 per cent of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and pushed most of its vessels to the Novorossiysk base in the Sea of Azov.
The current trade route is fragile, but it allows for the export of Ukrainian steel, iron ore and sunflower oil, and grain to countries in Africa and Asia in dire need of food. If the port of Odesa is under constant threat by Russia, it would damage prospects for both Ukraine’s economic survival and global food security
Russia’s occupation has already led to the loss of 32 per cent of Ukraine’s land resources, most of which produce wheat, corn, sunflower and other grains. The fertile black earth of Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Donetsk is now polluted, mined and thousands of hectares are unharvested. Ukraine’s grain harvest in 2024 was almost 40 per cent below 2021’s.
US–Ukraine–Europe alignment
Zelenskyy understands the gravity of an unprotected ceasefire deal. In fact, he has stated that security guarantees for Kyiv to end Russia’s war would be effective only if the US provided them. These, then, must be agreed jointly between the US, Europe and Ukraine before direct talks with Putin begin.
The challenges in aligning Kyiv and Washington’s interests are daunting but surmountable. Kyiv, and European allies in NATO must persuade Trump that stopping Putin in Ukraine is the best investment in American security.
Europe must help by committing substantial capabilities for conventional deterrence on the continent. And a ceasefire must be enforced by troops on the ground: NATO’s European members should lead this effort, with US backup support. The US and Europe should not recognize Russia’s claims to Ukrainian territory and should reject any change to borders by force.
Should Trump impose unconvincing guarantees and concede to Putin’s demands, Ukrainian sovereignty will be fatally undermined – and the US will likely soon find itself confronted by an emboldened autocrat in a mood for more war. The coming days will show whether Zelensky’s appeals are taken seriously, or if the US falls into Russia’s trap.
Orysia Lutsevych OBE, Deputy Director, Russia and Eurasia Programme; Head of the Ukraine Forum, Chatham House, London.
This article for Chatham Houses is Reprinted with the author’s permission. See the original here.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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