ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 14, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• The Kremlin remains committed to achieving the original goals of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in any future peace negotiations — namely the destruction of the Ukrainian state, dissolution of the current Ukrainian government, demilitarization of Ukraine, and a permanent ban on Ukraine’s future membership in NATO.
• Patrushev stated that Russia’s goals in Ukraine remain unchanged and that Russia remains committed to achieving all of the goals that Russian President Vladimir Putin used to justify the full-scale invasion.
• Russian officials continue to deny the existence of a Ukrainian identity and state that is independent of Russia as part of ongoing Russian efforts to justify the destruction of the Ukrainian state.
• Patrushev stated that he believes that only Russia and the United States should engage in negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, and senior Kremlin officials are also questioning the role that European countries could play in such negotiations.
• The Kremlin will likely attempt to seize on potential future Russian advances into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for informational purposes, but these advances, if they occur, are unlikely to have significant operational impact.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale series of drone and missile strikes against military and defense industrial targets in Russia on the night of January 13 to 14.
• Ukrainian and Moldovan authorities continue efforts to find a solution to the gas crisis in Moldova as the pro-Russian breakaway republic Transnistria continues to refuse help from Ukraine or Moldova.
• Kremlin officials are attempting to exploit the energy crisis in Moldova to set conditions to justify future Russian aggression against Moldova.
• Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor reportedly caused a brief but widespread internet outage in Russia while operating restriction systems of its Sovereign Internet on January 14.
• Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions.
• Russia continues efforts to bolster military recruitment efforts by offering financial incentives to those who sign military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).

Authors: Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Olivia Gibson, Nicole Wolkov, Davit Gasparyan, and Frederick W. Kagan.

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