The money not spent
There is plenty to criticize about the administration of President Joe Biden’s military support to Ukraine, most obviously because after four years of assistance in response to Russia’s invasion, Ukraine isn’t victorious nor has Russia stopped attacking. That being said, the US taxpayer money the Biden administration committed to that effort – $65.9 billion, per the latest (Jan. 8) Pentagon fact sheet on US security assistance to Ukraine – is orders of magnitude more massive, than the Republican (Donald J. Trump) and Democratic (Barack H. Obama) administrations that preceded it.
Prior to Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine, but directly following Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine, from 2014-2021, the US sent Ukraine security assistance worth, in total, $1.5 billion.
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If the Biden administration has arguably delivered mixed results in arming Ukraine for defense against Russia, the Trump and Obama administrations undeniably failed spectacularly at deterring Russia from launching the biggest war in Europe since World War Two.
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Hand-held anti-tank weapons and anti-aircraft missiles turned out to be a really good idea
In the final months before Russia’s second invasion the Biden administration attempted to forestall the attack by shipping Ukraine hundreds more Javelin missiles, and also hundreds more easier-to-operate weapons like the LAW and AT-4 anti-tank rockets.
These found their way into the hands of Ukrainian anti-tank infantry teams usually operating in terrain Russian armored vehicles had trouble fighting in like forests, swamps, and inside cities.
During the decisive Battle of Kyiv Ukrainian anti-armor teams and anti-aircraft squads ambushed elite Russian units riding in expensive tanks and helicopters – repeatedly. Russian failure to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses at the start of the war, in no small part, was thanks to individual Ukrainian fighters being armed with American weapons able to take out any Russian tank or helicopter, provided the fighter had the nerve to wait for the enemy to get to close range.
When America played to traditional strong suits like artillery, it worked out well
Pentagon planners understood early that in a giant conventional war, Ukraine’s army would run through its artillery ammunition reserves in a few months and that, even worse, practically all the factories producing shells for the Soviet-era cannon and howitzers the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) used were in Russia or China.
The American response was to lead a coalition of mostly NATO states to donate NATO-standard cannon and howitzers to the AFU, to push for cross-over training for Ukrainian gunners, and to deliver artillery support kit like fire control radars and modern communications to Ukrainian brigades.
By late 2022 and through the present the AFU has fielded artillery more accurate and outranging Russian artillery.
A narrower but arguably even more successful US-led artillery upgrade was the transfer of precision-guided rockets fired by the wheeled HIMARS and tracked M270/Mars II launchers to the AFU.
The Ukrainians have used the rockets accurately down to a meter to pound airfields, hit headquarters, take out key bridges, and even assassinate senior Russian officers.
All in all, to date, Ukraine has received from the US and other allies about 80 launchers. The only problem is the Ukrainians can shoot off rockets far faster than the Americans can manufacture them.
Neglect of American traditional advantages like military production at scale worked out less well
By late 2022 it was clear the Ukrainian artillery could fire off far more munitions than the collective West was producing.
Efforts to up US production have been slow. This led to chronic ammunition shortages. Three years into the war that situation is generally unchanged and the reality of the situation was, and is, the same for practically every other US munition the Ukrainians shoot – HIMARS rockets, anti-aircraft missiles, drones, anti-armor missiles, mortar rounds – it all was in short supply at the start of the war and it still is.
The US was an arsenal for democracy during World War Two. In the Russo-Ukraine War, America has fallen short. Three countries have set up or are in the process of setting up artillery ammunition shell manufacturing in Ukraine.
None are American.
High-tech, heavy anti-aircraft systems were a huge success and a pretty big black eye for Russia
The American Patriot anti-aircraft/missile system has proved hands-down to be the most effective air defense weapon operated by either side in the war and, thus far, the only one with even a chance of downing a ballistic missile.
This has been a propaganda disaster for the Kremlin, whose state-run media has ritualistically touted Russian ballistic missiles as invulnerable to all NATO air defense systems – and then the next news cycle a Russian Iskander ballistic missile is unceremoniously knocked out of the sky by a Ukrainian Patriot.
It bears noting that less than half the Patriot systems operated by Ukraine were donated by the US, with Germany, Netherlands and Romania (among others) teaming up to send Ukraine their own systems.
The drawback to Patriot is prohibitively costly missiles.
Innovative, imaginative, “can do” American engineering spirit still lives in some sectors
Driven in no small part by the multi-million dollar price tag of a single Patriot, a Pentagon-AFU cooperative effort to jury-rig Soviet-era air defense systems to fire older and cheaper NATO-standard anti-aircraft missiles has been a stunning success.
At the start of the war, there were exactly zero Ukrainian air defense systems capable of firing an American AIM or RIM short-range missile; now those (often aging) NATO weapons are the backbone of Ukrainian air defenses across the country. They even came up with a name for it: “FrankenSAM.”
Not satisfied with after-market refits of air defense systems, the aviation engineers figured out how to strap American anti-radar missile onto Ukrainian MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter.
The preferred ground strike weapon for a Ukrainian attack helicopter pilot, generally, is a Vietnam-era American unguided rocket called a Zuni.
Most recently, the air warfare tech team figured out how to hook up another American Cold War weapon originally designed to blow up Soviet targets – precision-guided, glide bombs – onto a Ukrainian Soviet-era combat jet and drop it accurately.
American combat vehicles have been effective but not irreplaceable:
After much delay and months of political hue and cry across NATO, the US sent Ukraine 31 Abrams tanks. Exactly as the Pentagon experts predicted, the Abrams turned out to be effective but far from invulnerable.
Ukrainian soldiers widely praise the US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle for excellent optics, good firepower, outstanding maneuverability, and, above all, rugged construction allowing crew and passengers to stay alive even after a serious hit disabling the vehicle.
A common AFU view is that the Swedish CV-90 and German Marder are equally capable and come with the advantage that the US Congress won’t tie itself into knots debating about sending the vehicles.
By early 2025 the US had sent Ukraine 300 Bradleys, but, that was only a piece of the nearly 2,000 armored fighting vehicles Ukraine had received from all other sources.
America delivered mass that helped and really in a scale only the US was big and rich enough to provide, but it wasn’t exactly focused
Transport helicopters left over from Afghanistan now fly for the Ukrainian Air Force.
For years Ukrainian special forces have tested US high-tech attack drones that didn’t work very well – but the next version might.
The Kremlin says US satellite and spy networks feed the AFU targeting information (Washington and Kyiv aren’t commenting).
After about a year of saying “Impossible,” the Biden administration allowed some European states to donate F-16s they had bought from the US to Ukraine.
Ukrainian gunners, pilots, and vehicle operators have been taught at US training centers from Germany to Arizona.
US money has bought dozens of Soviet-era tanks and tens of thousands of Soviet-caliber shells for the AFU.
HAWK anti-aircraft systems dating back to the 1970s that the US military was going to throw out are now engaging Russian cruise missiles and drones launched at Ukrainian homes and businesses.
Anti-ship missiles, coastal defense cutters, mine-resistant vehicles left over from Iraq, low-boy trailers to haul tanks from here to there, ambulances, trucks, and command vehicles – by any measure, the Biden security assistance effort on Ukraine has been wide-reaching. Just not very systematic.
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