The transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian pipelines to Europe came to an end at the start of the new year after Kyiv refused to negotiate an extension of contracts with Moscow. The network of pipelines running between EU members is making up for the loss of Russian gas supplies in these states, but Transnistria, which has broken away from Moldova, is experiencing major problems, with thousands of households and industrial facilities left without gas and also electricity at times.
Long overdue
EU countries receiving Russian gas supplies flew in the face of the bloc’s support for Ukraine, The Independent (UK) stresses:
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“It almost beggars belief that, nearly three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian gas was still being piped to several EU countries, including Austria and Slovakia, and that – despite all the sanctions imposed by Ukraine’s allies with a view to harming the Russian economy – pre-war contracts were being honoured on all sides as though nothing had happened. ... That the gas was still flowing into the EU until the early morning of 1st January 2025, nonetheless, risked undermining the European Union’s generally solid support for Ukraine.”
Moscow’s gas weapon blunted
Delfi (Lithuania) sees the developments as a double defeat for Moscow – both in the ‘gas war’ and in the regional conflict over Transnistria:
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“Russia’s decades-long gas war in Europe has ended with the aggressor’s self-destruction. Russia has been deprived of the last five billion euros per year it was still receiving from Europe. Europe is warmer and cosier than ever, while Moscow’s vassal Transnistria has been freezing for days. ... Transnistria has only a few weeks before it goes from ‘Saint Putin, save us!’ to ‘Europe, feed us!’. The Moldovan police will soon peacefully return it to where General Alexander Lebed’s tanks once removed it from. Every war comes to an end. ... Now the only option left for Russia is to sabotage European undersea cables.”
Kremlin aiming to cast itself as saviour
Russia will continue to use gas supplies as a means of keeping the Transnistria conflict simmering, Agora.md (Moldova) fears:
“The latest statements by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggest that Russia could resume gas supplies to Transnistria [via Turkey] in about a month’s time, when the winter is even more intense (and the rise in prices too, of course), in order to hurt Chișinău politically and keep the Transnistria region unstable. ... The Kremlin could then try to cast itself as Transnistria’s ‘saviour’ and thus improve its image. What’s more, this could allow Tiraspol to insist even more vehemently on its self-declared independence.”
A financial victory
This is a severe financial blow for the Kremlin, energy expert Mykhailo Honchar concludes in Espreso (Ukraine):
“Kyiv has withstood the Kremlin’s onslaught of Trojan horses in the EU, it has not fallen for deceptive manoeuvres and has ultimately forced Moscow to halt its gas exports to Europe via Ukraine. ... As a result, the aggressor will lose six to six and a half billion US dollars a year in gas export revenues, one of its main sources for financing the war.”
Ukrainian gas pipelines will be targeted
Glavkom (Ukraine) fears Russia will now target Ukraine’s gas infrastructure:
“From the enemy’s point of view there is a certain logic to this: ‘If our gas no longer flows through the pipelines then no gas will flow through them.’ Russia has no qualms about destroying not just military but also civilian infrastructure. And ‘the pipe’ is an important asset. The targets will primarily be gas metering stations, the destruction of which would make the commercial use of the Ukrainian pipeline difficult or even impossible.”
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