‘Trump’s Unpredictability Applied to Russia’ – Ukraine at War Update for Jan 3

Two days into a new era with no more Russian gas being piped into Europe via Ukraine, the European Union said it will be just fine.

“The situation is stable with all member States using a mix of regular winter storage and imports from third countries, which provide stable supplies to their consumers,” according to a statement from Poland, which has just assumed the EU’s rotating presidency.

Poland and other EU countries welcomed the end of a decades-old arrangement where Russia’s natural gas was transited through Ukraine for a fee, but two countries were not so happy: Slovakia, which has retained its political ties with the Kremlin, and the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria, which has shut down virtually all of its industry now that Moscow’s fuel is gone.

While the significantly Russian-populated region has not completely exited the Kremlin’s sphere of influence, Transnistria’s leadership on Wednesday blamed Russia for the dissolved contract with Ukraine, calling it “political blackmail.”

The EU on Thursday urged the Moldovan government in Chisinau to work with the Transnistrians to ensure their fuel supply. The Polish presidency “called for strengthened support and coordination with the administration in Chisinau.”

Meanwhile, in Bratislava, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico warned on Wednesday that “only Europe” would suffer from the ending of fuel piped through Ukraine, and “not the Russian Federation,” just weeks after he visited Moscow to discuss energy security with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.

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On Thursday, Fico went a step further, claiming that “Zelensky’s sabotage” has dealt his country an “almost €500 million loss in public finances,” and threatened a backlash against Ukraine and against Ukrainians living in Slovakia.

“Ukrainian President Zelensky began to commit sabotage on public finances of Slovakia and damage the financial interests of the whole EU. Slovakia must show that it’s a sovereign country,” Fico posted to Facebook.

 “I declare that we are ready to negotiate and agree within the coalition to halt electricity supplies and significantly reduce support for Ukrainian citizens residing in the Slovak Republic,” he said.

Brussels was steadfast in its assertion Thursday that the EU, of which Slovakia has been a part for 20 years, will get by without any of Moscow’s fuel. Natural gas supply from Russia, once constituting 30% of EU imports, had been slashed to 10% just before the contract expired at the end of 2024.

“There are no security of supply concerns,” a statement from the EU Commission reads. “Gas supplies have been secured via alternative routes and through withdrawals from storage.”

Zelensky continues to speak (somewhat) diplomatically about the Trump transition

In a TV interview aired Thursday, President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the impending transfer of presidential power in the US to Donald Trump, and spoke about some of the possible security ramifications in Ukraine should a ceasefire be declared.

Referring to Trump, Zelensky noted: “He’s very strong and unpredictable, and I would really like to see President Trump’s unpredictability applied to Russia. I believe he really wants to end the war.”

As far as American presidential elections go, Trump was meager on policy specifics during his campaign, perhaps playing his foreign policy cards very close to his chest, although some analysts have suggested he hasn’t worked out the details of his policies at all, especially after his remarks in a presidential debate that he has “concepts of a plan” for the country’s troubled healthcare system that have been ridiculed in social media.

Trump has repeated that he would bring a close to the war in Ukraine even before he reaches the Oval Office, now 18 days away, and famously said he would reach out to both sides and resolve it “within 24 hours.” Something world leaders can count on is that Republicans in Congress, while many of them are supportive of Kyiv, have a diminished appetite for prolonged funding for Ukraine’s defense.

On the issue of peacekeeping, should a deal be reached, Zelensky said he supported the idea of France deploying troops in Ukraine, but said this should be a precursor to Ukraine’s acceptance into NATO.

“We support this initiative, but France alone is not enough. We would not want it to be one or two countries if it comes to this initiative. It should definitely be on the way to NATO,” Zelensky said.

French President Emmanuel Macron had suggested in 2024 that French soldiers could be sent to Ukraine even as combatants, and has forwarded the idea of Western peacekeepers to enforce any peace deal with Moscow in 2025.  

Parliament building in Kyiv damaged by New Year’s Day drone strike

As a result of Moscow’s Jan. 1 massive drone strike on the capital and elsewhere in Ukraine that killed two and injured many others, administrative buildings of the Verkhovna Rada, the nation’s parliament, suffered damages.

“The explosive wave damaged the surrounding buildings, in particular the administrative buildings of the Ukrainian Parliament, where committees and units of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine are located. Yesterday, law enforcement and special services worked on the site to record the consequences of the barbaric attack. The assessment of the damage caused is currently underway,” wrote Ruslan Stefanchuk, the parliament’s chairman, on Facebook.

The evening before the attacks, the Chairman had posted: “May this year be the year of our dream coming true. May it bring peace to Ukraine. Peace is fair, comprehensive and lasting.”