World Briefing: December 31, 2024

Year-End Thoughts

2025 will certainly deliver the uncertainty and instability which we have come to know in the year that’s just ended. But with Donald Trump’s return to the White House, global dynamics face a further shake-up. His “America First” approach will upend trade, economics, and geopolitics. Already, the US’s biggest trading partner and supposedly best friend, Canada, is bracing itself for 25% tariffs threatened by Mr. Trump.

Not all is bleak. Trump - the first president to take office while several criminal cases against him are pending - may surprise us by leveraging his familiarity with the ways of crooked men to put into place a war criminal - Vladimir Putin. He will try to display the bravado characteristic of the self-proclaimed master of the art of the deal to end the war in Ukraine but still could come up empty when Mr. Putin doesn’t get everything he’s asking for.

Elsewhere, strongmen will continue to solidify their axis of autocrats - which will, in turn, continue to shake up the rules-based international order. They will try to lessen dependence on the US dollar and find new ways to work around western sanctions.

The world also faces a resurgence of regional conflicts, with crises continuing in the Middle East and the South China Sea.

There will be a lack of consensus on how to battle climate change and on ways to create safeguards for the rapid introduction of AI. Tech bros, leveraging their unparalleled wealth and jaw-dropping arrogance, will further consolidate their control over elected politicians and the economy.

Finally, there may be a change of the guard by the time of the next G7 summit in Canada next summer, with familiar faces such as Justin Trudeau and maybe even Emmanuel Macron busy updating their LinkedIn pages.

For more year-end thoughts featured by the Kyiv Post, click here

Boeing shares were down more than 3% in late-morning trading Monday, after South Korea ordered an inspection of all 737-800 planes — the model involved in a deadly Jeju Air crash over the weekend — operated by its domestic carriers. Acting President Choi Sang-mok told the Transport Ministry to carry out an emergency safety inspection of the country’s entire airline operation system, while officials at the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport, or MOLIT, said they would conduct a “comprehensive special inspection of the B737-800.” - CNBC

Separately, a Jeju Air passenger jet that departed Gimpo Airport in Seoul for Jeju on Monday experienced an unidentified landing-gear issue after takeoff and returned to Gimpo where it landed safely, Yonhap news reported, citing an unnamed source.

A Chinese state-sponsored hacker has broken into the US Treasury Department’s systems, accessing employee workstations and some unclassified documents, American officials said. The breach occurred in early December and was made public in a letter penned by the Treasury Department to lawmakers notifying them of the incident. The US agency characterised the breach as a “major incident”, and said it had been working with the FBI and other agencies to investigate the impact. A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington DC told BBC News that the accusation is part of a “smear attack” and was made “without any factual basis”. - BBC

Russia and Ukraine have exchanged hundreds of prisoners of war in a deal brokered by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The Russian defence ministry said it had swapped 150 Ukrainian soldiers held captive for an equal number of Russian troops. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy said 189 Ukrainians had returned home. He added that those released included “defenders of Azovstal and Mariupol”, the Chernobyl nuclear power plant and Snake Island.

My analysis: two things stick out here. An Arab state is once again involved in high stakes efforts related to the Ukraine Russia war. Like intermediary Turkey, the UAE has amicable relations with Russia. Second, the swap is a confidence building measure. Even with the two sides far apart on settling their hostilities, it shows that they can still do business.

Amid growing calls for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to resign, the latest public opinion data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute shows the support for his Liberal Party among decided and leaning voters down to just 16 per cent. “It represents the lowest level of support for the party in Angus Reid Institute tracking dating back to 2014. It is also quite possibly the lowest vote intention the Liberals have ever received in the modern era,” the institute said. Meanwhile, approval of Trudeau, which had been steady in the low 20s, now plummets to an all-time nadir of 22 per cent. These latest blows come at the end of a punishing two weeks wherein Trudeau lost his finance minister and lost the would-be replacement star he’d been chasing. This culminated in an open loss of confidence by a growing number of Liberal MPs who are now publicly calling for him to go.

A federal appeals court on Monday upheld a $5 million verdict that E. Jean Carroll won against Donald Trump when a jury found the U.S. President-elect liable for sexually abusing and later defaming the former magazine columnist. The decision was issued by a three-judge panel of the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Manhattan. The May 2023 verdict stemmed from an incident around 1996 in a Bergdorf Goodman department store dressing room in Manhattan, where Carroll said Trump raped her, and an October 2022 Truth Social post where Trump denied Carroll’s claim as a hoax. Though jurors in federal court in Manhattan did not find that Trump committed rape, they awarded the former Elle magazine advice columnist $2.02 million for sexual assault and $2.98 million for defamation - France 24

Five years ago today, WHO’s Country Office in China picked up a media statement by officials on cases of ‘viral pneumonia’ in Wuhan. In the weeks, months and years that unfolded after that, COVID-19 came to shape our lives and our world. On the occasion, the WHO issued a statement saying: “We continue to call on China to share data and access so we can understand the origins of COVID-19. This is a moral and scientific imperative. Without transparency, sharing, and cooperation among countries, the world cannot adequately prevent and prepare for future epidemics and pandemics.”

Repeated hostilities in and around hospitals have obliterated the health care system in northern Gaza, putting civilians at an unacceptably grave risk of going without lifesaving care, says the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). The Geneva-based body has issued an urgent call for the respect and protection of medical facilities in line with international humanitarian law. “This protection is a legal obligation and a moral imperative to preserve human life,” it said. The ICRC added: “Hospitals are a lifeline for those wounded or sick in conflict. Al-Awda Hospital – previously supported by the ICRC with supplies – is now absorbing more pressure as one of the few functioning medical facilities in northern Gaza. The Kamal Adwan and Indonesian hospitals are now completely inoperable. For months, these medical facilities have struggled to provide care for patients as ongoing hostilities have damaged hospitals and endangered or harmed staff, patients, and civilians.”

Romania and Bulgaria will officially join the Schengen Area as full members on 1 January 2025, closing a chapter that began in 2011, when the European Commission first determined their readiness for accession. Long queues at 30 land borders between Romania and Bulgaria will soon be a thing of the past, though random document checks will continue for some time to help prevent crime - Euronews

This Briefing is reprinted with the author’s permission. Please find the original here.