A Russian anti-aircraft system may have downed an Azerbaijan Airlines jet, a US official has told CNN. If confirmed, it may be a case of mistaken identity, the official said, where poorly trained Russian units have fired negligently against Ukraine’s use of drones. Thirty-eight passengers were killed on Wednesday after Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8432 crashed as it attempted to make an emergency landing near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan.

Separately, Azerbaijani government sources have confirmed to Euronews that a Russian surface-to-air missile caused the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Aktau on Wednesday. According to the sources, the missile was fired at Flight 8432 during drone air activity above Grozny, and the shrapnel hit the passengers and cabin crew as it exploded next to the aircraft mid-flight. Government sources have told Euronews that the damaged aircraft was not allowed to land at any Russian airports despite the pilots’ requests for an emergency landing, and it was ordered to fly across the Caspian Sea towards Aktau in Kazakhstan. According to data, the plane’s GPS navigation systems were jammed throughout the flight path above the sea.

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My analysis: The first explanation from the Russians that a flock of birds caused the plane to crash now seems absurd. Shrapnel damage and holes visible on the jet’s fuselage could not have been caused by birds. (In fact, they resemble the markings our OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine found on the fuselage of MH17, which was downed by a Russian BUK missile in July 2014).

If the Russian side is the cause of the crash, an independent investigation should be able to determine the type of missile used, whether it was intentional, the airworthiness of the aircraft as well as many other factors. According to Russian sources cited by Euronews, at the time the Azerbaijan Airlines flight was passing over the territory of Chechnya, Russian air defence forces were actively attempting to shoot down Ukrainian UAVs over Chechnya while the aircraft was in close proximity. I expect the Russian disinformation machine to go into full throttle to point the blame elsewhere, probably at the Ukrainian side as it did in the aftermath of the crash of Flight MH17. Also important is who gets to analyze the flight data and cockpit voice recorders, which could provide essential clues as to what happened in the planes final minutes.

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Another important issue which needs to be addressed is why Azal Airlines, the state-owned operator of the Brazilian-built jet, was allowing its flights to fly into or near a conflict zone. Also, why did the authorities not close the airspace to civil aviation when they knew active hostilities were taking place? Shortly after the crash, my Air Canada Flight AC850 from London to Delhi on December 26 weaved a careful path near the region, carefully avoiding Russian and Iranian airspace by flying over Georgia and Azerbaijan and into Turkmenistan.

Watch for my OpEd soon on why airlines should be prioritizing safety over profit margins and taking more care to avoid (an admittedly increasing number) conflict zones - especially in an environment where sophisticated weaponry is getting into the hands of non-state actors and where autocrats are becoming more audacious towards enemies and opponents

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The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) and other UN staff were at Yemen’s international airport in Sanaa on Thursday during an Israeli air strike. In a social media post, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said he and staff were about to board a plane when the airport came under aerial bombardment. “One of our plane’s crew members was injured,” he wrote, adding that two people at the airport were killed. The strikes - which also hit power stations and ports - have killed at least three people with more than a dozen injured, according to Houthi-run media. The Iran-backed rebel group described the attacks as “barbaric” after Israel claimed responsibility for the strikes - BBC

A lead organization monitoring for food crises around the world has pulled a new report warning of imminent famine in north Gaza under what it called Israel’s “near-total blockade,” after the U.S. asked for its retraction, U.S. officials told the Associated Press. The move follows public criticism of the report from the U.S. ambassador to Israel. The rare public dispute drew accusations from prominent aid and human-rights figures that the work of the U.S.-funded Famine Early Warning System Network, meant to reflect the data-driven analysis of unbiased international experts, has been tainted by politics. A declaration of famine would be a great embarrassment for Israel, which has insisted that its 15-month war in Gaza is aimed against the Hamas militant group and not against its civilian population. U.S. ambassador to Israel Jacob Lew earlier this week called the warning by the internationally recognized group inaccurate and “irresponsible.” Lew and the U.S. Agency for International Development, which funds the monitoring group, both said the findings failed to properly account for rapidly changing circumstances in north Gaza. Humanitarian and human rights officials expressed fear of U.S. political interference in the world’s monitoring system for famines - AP

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The Finnish authorities on Thursday boarded an oil tanker that they believe was involved in cutting through vital undersea cables, and was part of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of ships aimed at bypassing sanctions. The Estlink 2 submarine cable, which carries electricity between Finland and Estonia, was cut on Wednesday, Finland’s police said in a statement, the latest in a slew of disruptions to undersea infrastructure that are being investigated as acts of sabotage. The Finnish authorities said Thursday that four other cables carrying data also had been damaged. A number of other vital undersea cables have been cut in recent months, raising fears that Russia might be waging a shadow campaign against NATO nations that have supported Ukraine in the face of Moscow’s full-scale invasion - NYT

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Parents will be separated from their children and deported if they are in the United States illegally, according to Donald Trump’s “border czar” Tom Homan. He said the new administration won’t hesitate to kick out parents even if they have children born in the United States. The only concession, he told the Washington Post, was that the families would be left to decide whether to leave the country together – or be split up. “Here’s the issue, you knew you were in the country illegally and chose to have a child. So you put your family in that position,” said Homan, who oversaw the border policy during Trump’s first term that resulted in more than 4,000 children being separated from their parents - Daily Beast

In what it calls a “blatant contradiction with its proclaimed commitment to freedom of information,” Reporters Without Borders has accused Apple of yielding to the demands of Russian censors by removing independent journalistic apps and content from its App Store in Russia. The organization urged the company to genuinely defend citizens’ access to free and independent information by refusing to comply with the orders of a regulator whose actions do not align with international standards. RSF also called on Apple to adopt transparency measures. On 14 November, Apple removed three leading journalistic podcasts from its Russian App Store: “The Insider Live”, the BBC’s “Что это было?” (“What was that?”) and “Echo”. The next day, Apple also removed the app of Svoboda, the Russian offshoot of US broadcaster Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). Previously, in October, Apple blocked the Current Time app produced jointly by RFE/RL and the US public broadcaster Voice of America. And in August 2023, Apple removed the podcasts of the Russian exile media outlets Meduza and Kholod from its platform when pressed by the Russian regulator, Roskomnadzor. “These decisions by Apple have contributed to the progressive elimination of independent media from the Russian digital arena,” RSF said.

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