World Briefing: December 20, 2024

One of the worst Russian strikes on Kyiv in almost three years occurred in the early hours of today. The missile and drone attack caused heavy damage in the center of the capital, striking at the heart of foreign businesses and tourism. Substantial damage was also inflicted on one of the oldest Catholic churches in Kyiv. At least one dead and several injured. The IHG Hotels & Resort’s Holiday Inn was heavily damaged too. The complex hit - the Toronto-Kyiv business complex - is popular among expats and locals alike. It was the location of this year’s Embassy of Canada to Ukraine Canada Day festivities where a federal minister and several VIPs were present. St Nicholas Church was just restored back to its original beauty after a major fire some years ago. Stained glass windows were broken and other damage. The Russian attack on Kyiv damaged the embassies of Portugal, Argentina, Albania and Montenegro. The Portuguese Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian chargé d’affaires in Lisbon. A Kyiv friend said: “In 3 years of war I’ve never felt such power vibrations from the blasts in our shelter. This one was different.” This attack struck at the heart of international business in Kyiv. It raises the question whether the business community should be shifting some of its efforts and resources from the (admittedly needed) campaign to rebuild Ukraine to lobbying for more paralysing sanctions on Russia, war crimes prosecutions - and against a fast track settlement that will potentially leave Ukraine with the shorter end of the stick.

European security guarantees without U.S. involvement will not be “sufficient “ to ensure the long term protection of Ukraine from Russian aggression, Volodymyr Zelensky warned yesterday. The Ukrainian president spoke after meeting with EU and NATO leaders in Brussels to discuss future support for Kyiv in light of Donald Trump’s impending return as U.S. president, and his vows to stop military aid to Ukraine and force peace negotiations with Russia. Zelensky has been pushing leaders to extend a formal invitation to Ukraine to join NATO, but the U.S. and Germany have been deeply reluctant and Hungary is against it. “It is very important to have both on board, the United States and the Europeans…a common decision,” he said. “There should be a very comprehensive position… we must be assured of the security guarantees that will protect us tomorrow.” His comments came after the EU’s chief diplomat warned Western capitals to stop suggesting peace talks to Zelensky and instead ensure their promises of security guarantees to Kyiv were not “empty.” Kaja Kallas said: “There’s no point pushing Zelensky to talk when Putin doesn’t want to talk. We can’t talk about peacekeepers when there’s no peace. And why is there no peace? Because Russia doesn’t want peace.” - FT

A British minister, Tulip Siddiq, whose brief includes stamping out corruption, has been named in an anti-corruption probe, claiming her family embezzled almost £4bn from Russian-backed infrastructure project in Bangladesh. She is alleged to have brokered a deal with Russia in 2013 that inflated the price of a new nuclear power plant in Bangladesh at a time when Siddiq’s aunt, Sheikh Hasina, was prime minister, according to court document seen by the Daily Mail. The probe is part of a wider investigation into Siddiq’s family by Bangladesh’s Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC), after her aunt was ousted as prime minister and forced to flee the country in August this year.

A growing number of U.S. colleges and universities are advising international students to return to campus before President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated, over concerns that he might impose travel bans like he did during his first administration. More than a dozen schools have issued advisories, even though Trump’s plans remain uncertain. At some schools, the spring semester begins before Trump will take office, so students may have to be back in class anyway. But for anyone whose ability to stay in the United States depends on an academic visa, they say it’s best to reduce their risks and get back to campus before Jan. 20 - AP

Ukraine’s economy remains one-quarter smaller than in 2021 - yet for the first time since 2022, the start of the all-out invasion, it is healthier than its enemy’s in some key respects. Ukraine’s central bank forecasts gdp to grow by 4% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025. The currency is stable and interest rates, at 13.5%, remain near their lowest in 30 months. Contrast that with Russia, where rates should soon hit 23% to arrest the rouble’s fall, banks look fragile and gdp is set to grow by just 0.5-1.5% in 2025. But Ukraine faces strong headwinds: the uptick of war, the downtick of domestic resources, and Donald Trump. How long can its economy hold out? Ukraine’s economic history since 2022 has had three phases. In the first, amid heavy fighting, the country scrambled to put out fires. Martial law was introduced and 14m people fled their homes. Russia blockaded Black Sea ports, choking off Ukraine’s exports. The central bank’s actions were subordinated to military objectives. In the first half of 2022 it financed half of the public deficit. It imposed strict capital controls and flooded banks with liquidity. Inflation soared and gdp shrank by a third

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that he was ready to compromise over Ukraine in possible talks with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on ending the war and had no conditions for starting talks with the Ukrainian authorities. Putin, said that he was ready to meet Trump, whom he said he had not spoken to for years. Asked what he might be able to offer Trump, Putin dismissed an assertion that Russia was in a weak position, saying that Russia had got much stronger since he ordered troops into Ukraine in 2022. “We have always said that we are ready for negotiations and compromises,” Putin said, after saying that Russian forces, advancing across the entire front, were moving towards achieving their primary goals in Ukraine. “Soon, those Ukrainians who want to fight will run out, in my opinion, soon there will be no one left who wants to fight. We are ready, but the other side needs to be ready for both negotiations and compromises.” Putin said Russia had no conditions to start talks with Ukraine and was ready to negotiate with anyone, including President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. But he said any deal could only be signed with Ukraine’s legitimate authorities, which for now the Kremlin considered to be only the Ukrainian parliament - Reuters

Britain’s rural outpost of private members club Soho House, whose customers have included Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, has been hit by a fire in the establishment’s main venue in the crucial run-up to Christmas. A source told The Daily Beast that the fire started in a wood-fired pizza oven connected to a chimney in the venue’s so-called Main Barn, the central restaurant that typically serves hundreds of diners a day. While the Main Barn remains open for drinks, food service was suspended in that location with reservations moved to another temporary event space, the source said. The club’s clientele include Jeremy Clarkson, David Cameron and David and Victoria Beckham, who have a house nearby. Adding to the misery for the club’s exclusive clientele, the club’s fancy Asian restaurant, Pen Yeng, was hit by flooding two weeks ago and has also relocated to another space. One member told The Daily Beast the club typically hosts hundreds of people for Christmas Day meals at prices of up to $200 a head- The Daily Beast

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