Key Stages in Crisis Threatening Georgia’s EU Bid

Gripped by weeks of mass street protests, Georgia has plunged into a constitutional crisis that could escalate in the coming days with the controversial inauguration of a new president.

Here are the key developments in the turmoil that has pushed the former Soviet republic into uncharted territory:

- Policy shift -

Tensions have spiraled in Georgia since 2022, marked by the ruling Georgian Dream party’s shift from its initially liberal, pro-Western agenda to what critics have denounced as an ultra-conservative pro-Russian tilt.

The party’s perceived betrayal of the country’s bid for European Union membership -- enshrined in the constitution and supported by around 80 percent of the population -- has antagonized many Georgians.

In power for more than a decade, Georgian Dream this year adopted controversial Kremlin-styled laws, targeting civil society and independent media and curbing LGBTQ rights.

The measures sparked weeks of mass anti-government protests this spring and led Brussels to freeze EU-candidate Tbilisi’s accession process.

- Contested election -

Georgian Dream’s claimed victory in October parliamentary elections -- condemned by the pro-Western opposition as rigged -- triggered a new wave of tension.

Georgia‘s leading election monitors said they uncovered evidence of a “complex large-scale fraud scheme” that has swayed the results in favor of Georgian Dream -- a claim the party denies.

Opposition parties have refused to enter the newly elected parliament, while President Salome Zurabishvili -- at loggerheads with the ruling party -- declared the newly elected legislature and government “illegitimate.”

“We are witnesses and victims of a Russian special operation, a modern form of hybrid war against the Georgian people,” she said, alleging Russian meddling in the election, a claim Moscow has denied.

- ‘Constitutional crisis’ -

On December 14, an electoral college controlled by Georgian Dream installed party loyalist and far-right former footballer Mikheil Kavelashvili as the country’s next president.

But Zurabishvili -- whose mandate ends on December 29 when the new leader is set to be inaugurated -- is refusing to step down until October’s parliamentary polls are re-run.

Constitutional law experts –- including one author of Georgia’s constitution, Vakhtang Khmaladze -- have said the new parliament, government and president-elect are “illegitimate.”

That is because a court ruling on Zurabishvili’s bid to get parliamentary poll results annulled was still pending at the time.

The court eventually ruled that the case was inadmissible.

- ‘Torture’ -

Kobakhidze’s announcement on November 28 that Tbilisi will not seek the opening of EU accession talks until 2028, sparked three weeks of daily protests which were ongoing.

Riot police have used tear gas and water cannon to disperse protesters -- some of whom threw fireworks and stones.

The interior ministry has reported more than 400 arrests.

The country’s top human rights official, ombudsman Levan Ioseliani and Amnesty International have accused security forces of “torturing” those detained.

The reported police brutality has sparked mounting international condemnation as Washington and several European countries have imposed visa bans on Georgian Dream officials and warned of further personal sanctions.

- Risk of further escalation -

Mirroring language reminiscent of that used by the Kremlin about its political opponents, Kobakhidze has described protesters as “violent groups” controlled by “liberal fascist” opposition.

With the government refusing to back down and protests showing no signs of ending -- even if turnout has been lower in recent days -- the risk of escalation in the crisis is high and the outcome unpredictable.

In the immediate perspective, more trouble is expected after Kavelashvili’s planned inauguration on December 29.

It remains unclear how Georgian Dream will react if Zurabishvili refuses to leave the presidential palace.

She is hugely popular among pro-EU protesters who see her as a beacon of Georgia’s European aspirations and many have vowed to defend her against any attempted eviction from the Orbeliani Palace, the presidential seat.