Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans have a new buzz phrase on Ukraine’s war with Russia: they say they will come up with a “responsible peace deal.”
But as they take office, America’s soon-to-be rulers might uncover a situation better described by a more ancient term: a Gordian knot.
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Greek legend had it that Gordius, King of Phrygia created such a complicated knot that it was only capable of being untied by the future ruler of Asia. In the modern world, this has come to mean a problem that is intricate or even insoluble.
The Gordian knot facing President-elect Trump when he comes to power in January is the problem of achieving peace in Ukraine. Not a temporary ceasefire akin to the failed Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015, but a lasting accord that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty and deters future aggression while meeting the core demands for both Kyiv and Moscow.
Bridging that gap may prove to be more daunting than the incoming President imagines. Yet, apart from strategic concerns, Trump may relish the challenge for more personal reasons: could it be in the back of his mind that such a deal might bring him the Nobel Peace Prize – matching the achievement of Barack Obama, but with a real accomplishment to merit the award?
For Russia, an acceptable deal would probably include solidifying control over the territories it has seized, including the totality of Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, while ensuring Ukraine is barred from joining NATO or the EU. Such terms would align with Putin’s vision of Ukraine as a neutral buffer zone – a strategic concession that would allow him to claim victory despite the war’s catastrophic costs.
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 24, 2024
Ukraine, exhausted after nearly three years of fighting a more powerful enemy, could benefit from freezing the all-out war. However, any deal that forfeits its sovereignty would be untenable. Ukraine has long wanted to join NATO – but if full membership is still not on offer, Kyiv would at least require NATO-like security guarantees if it is to attract foreign investment for its post-war reconstruction estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars.
While these security guarantees may sound excessive to some in the West, we should remember that it was the US and the UK, along with Russia, who disarmed Ukraine in 1994. As part of Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine relinquished its nuclear arsenal – the world’s third largest – in exchange for promises to protect its sovereignty. Those promises now ring hollow, with Ukraine’s territorial integrity shattered and its survival hinging on the West’s piecemeal support.
Thirty years on, Ukraine understandably has little faith in such agreements. The failed Minsk accords, which only emboldened Russia to launch its full-scale invasion in 2022, serve as a stark reminder of futility of empty promises. This time, Kyiv will insist on binding, enforceable commitments.
Ukraine fears that any unjust peace deal would merely grant Russia a strategic pause, allowing it to regroup, rearm, and strike again in the future. Russia’s expanding military partnerships with North Korea, Iran and China indicate the strong possibility of renewed aggression, this time on a larger scale, leading to further destabilization of Europe, Middle East and Indo-Pacific.
Last year, I argued that allowing Ukraine to have full NATO membership and the risks that go with it are surely better than allowing Russia to absorb even parts of Ukraine. That would be both a betrayal of our ally and would undoubtedly send the wrong message to the world at a time when global peace has rarely been more fragile.
To return to our history lesson, the legend ends that in 333 BC Alexander the Great was challenged to untie the Gordian knot. But rather than try to unpick it, he dramatically picked up with his sword and cut right through it.
Donald Trump is not a man renowned for his patience. Having repeatedly promised a peace deal within just 24 hours, he may decide to use his own metaphorical sword to cut through to a swift solution.
It is easy to see why Trump will be tempted by such an approach: an end to a conflict that has blighted the world, and the kudos of finding a deal that eluded his predecessor. The risk is that rather than bring about a just and enduring settlement, Ukraine could be presented with an “irresponsible peace deal” that cannot last.
Originally published in the Sunday Express on Dec. 1, 2024.
Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com. Follow him on X/Facebook @LordAshcroft.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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