ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November, 29, 2024

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to laud the technical specifications of the recently launched Oreshnik ballistic missile and threaten additional Oreshnik strikes against Ukraine as part of an intensified Russian reflexive control campaign aimed at forcing the West and Ukraine into self-deterrence.
• There is nothing particularly novel about the capabilities of the Oreshnik missile, and US and Ukrainian officials indicated that the Oreshnik missile does not portend a Russian escalation in the war. Putin's constant flaunting of the Oreshnik and Russian missile capabilities therefore remains part of the Kremlin's reflexive control information operation and is unlikely to presage the development of particularly novel Russian deep strike capabilities.
• The Russian military is considering establishing a separate service branch for unmanned systems, likely as part of the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) in a belated effort to catch up to the establishment of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) in February 2024.
• Russian forces conducted a large series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine’s energy grid and major defense industrial facilities on the nights of November 27 to 28 and 28 to 29.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a series of strikes against four Russian air defense systems and radars in occupied Ukraine and two oil depots in Russia on November 28 and 29.
• Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov made an unannounced visit to Pyongyang, North Korea on November 29 amid intensifying Russian-North Korean cooperation.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly appointed Colonel General Rustam Muradov as First Deputy Commander of the Russian Ground Forces.
• The Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office opened additional investigations on November 28 into the apparent Russian execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the appointment of Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi as Ukraine's new Ground Forces Commander on November 29, replacing Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk.
• Georgians protested in Tbilisi, Georgia in response to an initiative by the ruling pro-Kremlin Georgian Dream party to delay European Union (EU) accession negotiations, prompting the Russian information space to resurrect information operations falsely framing the protests and Georgian opposition parties as potential threats to Georgian sovereignty.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced northeast of Vuhledar.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, in Toretsk, near Pokrovsk, and near Velyka Novosilka.
• Russian opposition outlets Mediazona and BBC Russian Service reported that they have confirmed that at least 80,937 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Authors: Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, William Runkel, and George Barros.

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