‘The Medicine Is More Harmful Than the Disease’ – Ukraine at War Update for Nov. 29

After Russian air strikes hammered Ukraine’s power grid with almost 200 missiles on Thursday, leaving millions without power, US President Joe Biden called for increased support for Kyiv, underscoring the “urgency” of the situation before his successor Donald Trump takes office in January.

“This attack is outrageous and serves as yet another reminder of the urgency and importance of supporting the Ukrainian people in their defense against Russian aggression,” Biden said. “On this day, my message to the Ukrainian people is clear: the United States stands with you,” he added.  

Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin has promised increased strikes after the US has given Kyiv the green light to use its long-range missiles well within the invaders’ territory.

Later on Thursday night, Moscow launched attack drones towards Kyiv, triggering air defense forces around the capital. As of early Friday morning Kyiv time, there had been no deaths reported, but several injuries and many reports of damage to buildings.

“Air defense forces are operating on the right bank of the city. Stay in shelters!” wrote Kyiv’s mayor Vitali Klitchko.

The mayor later specified that drone debris caused the outer cladding of a clinic building in the capital’s Dniprovskyi district to catch fire.

Earlier in the day, Mykolaiv Mayor Oleksandr Senkevych reported explosions in the city.

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Keith Kellogg and Trump’s Russia – Ukraine Peace Plan

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Speaking at the CSTO summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Putin said that Russian military officials are currently selecting targets across Ukraine – including military facilities, industrial sites, and command centers in Kyiv.

Putin also discussed Russia’s recent deployment of the “Oreshnik” [Hazel tree] missile system to the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Nov. 21, a weapon he claimed “has no global equivalent.”

“We do not rule out the use of Oreshnik against the military, military-industrial or decision-making centers, including in Kyiv,” Putin told a press conference in Astana.

Moscow’s increasing interest in strengthening relations with Kazakhstan, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe, is related to the evasion of sanctions.

“The Kremlin likely intends to deepen economic and transit relations with Kazakhstan, in part, to continue to leverage Kazakhstan as key intermediary to facilitate sanctions evasion schemes,” ISW analysts wrote.

As sanctions make themselves felt, Russia’s oligarchs starting to lose patience with central bank’s monetary policy

Western sanctions on the Russian economy are finally hitting their mark this week, with the US dollar surging to a two-year high against the Russian currency, at one point reaching nearly $115 to the ruble on Wednesday.

“For Russia and Russians, a weaker ruble means higher inflation, resulting in higher CBR [Central Bank of Russia] policy rates (already at 21%), lower growth, and ultimately lower standards of living for Russians. It will make the costs of the war finally bite on the Russian population - which might make Putin think twice over continuing the war,” UK-based emerging markets strategist Timothy Ash wrote on Thursday.

Politico reported this week that the central bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina has threatened another increase at its next meeting.

Despite Moscow’s capable evasion of Western sanctions on its oil exports, sliding demand from China and Europe, coupled with increased production in the US and South America, have led crude prices to shrink almost four points in a week.

That revenue is essential to Russia. The economy is gasping for breath and Russia’s ruling class has taken notice.

“It’s as if the medicine is more harmful than the disease,” Severstal chairman Alexey Mordashov was quoted by RBC as telling a conference in St. Petersburg on Wednesday.

“We need serious discussions on this topic,” Mordashov said. “This is a situation probably without precedent in modern world history, when the central bank rate is 2.5 times higher than inflation, and it still doesn’t slow down.”