A Ukrainian delegation led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov is expected to visit South Korea to request weapons aid, according to a source cited by the South China Morning Post.
The delegation plans to meet South Korean officials “as early as Wednesday” with a request for anti-air missiles and artillery systems, the source said, speaking anonymously. South Korea’s defense ministry declined to comment on the visit.
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Currently, South Korea limits its support for Ukraine to non-lethal aid, such as gas masks and field rations, adhering to its longstanding policy of not supplying lethal weapons to active conflict zones.
Opposition lawmakers have warned of the potential impeachment of South Korea’s defense minister if the government approves military aid for Ukraine without parliamentary consent.
Doo Jin-ho, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, suggested that while South Korea is a global leader in conventional weapons production, it is likely to proceed cautiously.
“South Korea will listen to Ukraine’s request but is unlikely to make a clear commitment to providing weapons,” he said. “The government is expected to adopt a wait-and-see approach, monitoring Russia’s military ties with North Korea before deciding its next steps.”
Doo attributed Seoul’s hesitation to multiple factors, including threats from Moscow, domestic opposition, and the potential impact of Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
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“There seems to be a shift in tone following the US election,” Doo added, noting South Korea’s cautious recalibration of its policy.
Moscow has warned South Korea that supplying weapons to Ukraine would “fully destroy” bilateral relations. “We hope Seoul will prioritize long-term national interests over short-term opportunistic considerations prompted from outside,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko said Sunday.
Other experts expressed skepticism about South Korea fulfilling Ukraine’s request. Lee Sung-won of the Sejong Institute suggested Seoul might align its policy with a potential Trump administration, while Cho Han-bum of the Korea Institute for National Unification said Moscow appears keen to preserve ties with Seoul while cautioning against crossing the line by providing lethal aid to Ukraine.
South Korea, which recently signaled a potential shift toward providing arms to Ukraine, may hold back as US President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House with plans to negotiate an end to the war, Bloomberg reported.
Historically, Seoul has banned sending lethal weapons to conflict zones. However, reports of North Korean troops supporting Russia led President Yoon Suk-yeol to reconsider.
In October, South Korean intelligence confirmed North Korean troop deployments to Russia’s Kursk region, prompting Yoon to warn that if North Korean forces continue to support Russia, his country may increase its support for Ukraine.
“Depending on the level of North Korean involvement, we will gradually adjust our support strategy in phases,” Yoon told a press conference in Seoul. “This means we are not ruling out the possibility of providing weapons.”
Yoon added that his office would closely monitor developments concerning North Korean troop activities and indicated that any decision to provide weapons to Kyiv would initially focus on defensive systems.
According to him, defensive weapons would be its priority if Seoul moves forward with weapons support.
Trump’s potential diplomatic efforts, however, could push Seoul to revert to non-intervention.
Ukraine is seeking South Korea’s large stockpile of 155mm artillery shells amid these developments.
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