As Ukraine continues to fight for its sovereignty, the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House has triggered mixed feelings. However, instead of fearing what lies ahead Ukraine might benefit from looking at Trump’s arrival as an opportunity for clarity. Whatever stance Trump brings to the conflict, it will be decisive – sadly, a rare and valuable trait in global politics these days.
Under Trump Ukraine will quickly understand where it stands. If allegations of Russian influence over him, whether through kompromat or other leverage, prove true, Ukraine will face hard truths sooner rather than later. However, if Trump is his own man, he could emerge as the ally Ukraine always hoped for. Trump and Putin are not natural bedfellows – both possess outsized egos and neither will want to appear weaker than the other. If Trump’s ego drives him to outshine Putin, Ukraine could see stronger support than under the current administration.
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On the other hand, even if Trump advocates a deal favoring Russia, such as asking Ukraine to cede territory already occupied, this decisiveness could force Europe to step up. Trump’s policy will draw clear lines not just for Ukraine but for the whole of Europe. Nations will no longer have the luxury of sitting on the sidelines or hiding behind incremental actions. In contrast President Joe Biden’s drip-feed of weapons and half-measures has been an agonizingly slow process, akin to death by a thousand cuts. This lack of urgency has left Ukraine in limbo, unable to either decisively win or negotiate from a position of strength.
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Trump’s leadership style may not be universally loved but it is effective at cutting through ambiguity. And that is one aspect any leader should admire about Trump, he’s decisive, even if one is inclined to dislike some of his decisions. As a young operational commander in my reserve police unit, it was one of the first lessons drilled into me, it’s better to make a decision, even the wrong one, than be indecisive! Indecision costs lives. Clarity even when harsh could finally push Europe to deliver the support Ukraine truly needs.
The Dual Threats to Trump and Musk
Trump’s potential presidency brings not only hope but also significant security challenges which the wider world must not ignore. Iran has made no secret of its desire to assassinate Trump. Recently they released propaganda celebrating the failed attempt on his life.
As someone who has personally protected Iranian dissidents for years, I know firsthand how relentless the Iranian regime can be. Many years ago, a young princess whom I was protecting, who had been on the run and in hiding for many years said to me: “Casey, one thing you need to understand about people from the Middle East is that they never forget, and they are patient, they will hunt me down, even if it takes 50 years, they won’t just forget about me!”
And the Iranian IRGC haven’t forgotten the fact that Trump took out the monster Qasem Soleimani, their former Quds Force boss. Most of the world might have forgotten as Soleimani was no one of any import in the West, but in Iran he held an almost God-like status.
During my time safeguarding Iranian dissidents, who adored Trump and celebrated the assassination of Soleimani, I rarely slept peacefully. New intelligence on threats came in constantly, with the regime using everyone from organized crime syndicates to low-level street thugs to try to achieve their aims. These methods, while less sophisticated, can be harder to detect. Criminals operate in the shadows, using low-tech communication methods and minimal planning, which make them an unpredictable threat even if less deadly at the time of potential contact.
The danger Trump faces is not confined to Iran. His return to power will likely provoke animosity from adversaries worldwide. Equally at risk is Elon Musk, who is increasingly becoming a polarizing figure. Musk’s involvement with SpaceX, Starlink, and his influence over US government functions make him a target for enemies both foreign and domestic.
If Musk and Trump take bold stances on Russia or Iran, it wouldn’t be unthinkable for false-flag operations to emerge. Russia, for instance, might attempt an attack on Trump, framing it as a Ukrainian plot to create chaos. Such tactics are well within Putin’s playbook.
Domestically, Musk’s actions to overhaul entrenched bureaucracies could make him a lightning rod for threats. Both men, whether you admire them or not, need extraordinary security measures. Love them or hate them, their safety and survival is critical for global stability.
In this volatile landscape Ukraine must prepare for all possibilities. Whether Trump’s return ushers in greater support, tough compromises or geopolitical shockwaves the country will at least have clarity. Something it desperately needs after years of uncertainty.
While the future is fraught with danger it is also ripe with potential. Trump’s approach, whether you love it or hate it, will force nations to reveal their true intentions. For Ukraine and the wider world that clarity might finally light the path forward out of this deadly quagmire.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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