‘Way Too Late’ – Ukraine at War Update for Nov. 18

US President Joe Biden’s administration has allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike deep into Russia, Ukraine plans to conduct its first long-range attacks in the coming days, sources told Reuters.

The move follows months of pleas by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to allow Ukraine’s military to use US weapons to hit military targets inside Russia.

The announcement also comes two months before President-elect Trump takes office on Jan. 20.

The change comes largely in response to Russia’s deployment of North Korean ground troops to supplement its forces, a development that has caused alarm in Washington and Kyiv, a US official and a source familiar with the decision said.

The change could potentially affect other Western long-range weapons as well, such as the British Storm Shadow and French SCALP cruise missiles whose usage requires Washington’s authorization as they utilize elements of US technology covered by Washington’s International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR).

The news comes after a massive new Russian missile and drone attack on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure that has already been condemned today by the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and the EU Chief Ursula von der Leyen.

Zelensky said Moscow launched 120 missiles and almost 100 drones, targeting Kyiv as well as southern, central, and far-western corners of the country. 

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The attack, which officials said was one of Russia’s largest, came as Moscow’s full-scale invasion nears its 1,000th day.

In his nightly address, Zelensky said that the missiles would “speak for themselves.”

“Today, many in the media are saying that we have received permission to take appropriate actions,” he said. “But strikes are not made with words. Such things are not announced.”

There was no immediate response from the Kremlin, which has warned that it would see a move to loosen the limits on Ukraine’s use of US weapons as a major escalation. Moscow has repeatedly put red lines in place for any step taken by allies to help Ukraine, with threats ranging up to using nuclear weapons.

According to sources quoted by Reuters, Ukraine’s first deep strikes are likely to be carried out using ATACMS rockets, which have a range of up to 190 miles (300 km).

Some US officials have noted that the decision could help Ukraine when Russian forces are making gains and possibly put Kyiv in a better negotiating position when and if ceasefire talks happen.

In January President-elect Trump could reverse Biden’s decision when he takes office. Trump has long criticized the scale of US financial and military aid to Ukraine and claimed he would end the war “within 24 hours,” without explaining how.

Some congressional Republicans had urged Biden to loosen the rules on how Ukraine can use American weapons.

Since Trump’s Nov. 5 win over Vice President Harris, senior Biden administration officials have repeatedly said they would use the remaining time to ensure Ukraine can fight effectively next year or negotiate peace with Russia from a “position of strength.”

Poland was the first among allies to welcome the lifting of restrictions on US-made weapons, with many saying it’s too little, too late

Poland’s foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, also called the move a response to North Korea’s involvement.

“President Biden responded to the entry of North Korean troops into the war and the massive Russian missile strike in a language that V. Putin understands - by removing restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western missiles,” Sikorski said on X.

“With the entry into the war of North Korea troops and [Sunday’s] massive attack of Russian missiles, President Biden responded in a language that Putin understands,” Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski posted on X.

“The victim of aggression has the right to defend himself,” Sikorski added.

US intelligence now believes, long after Ukrainian intelligence revealed the situation, that more than 10,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to eastern Russia and that most of them have moved to the Kursk region and have begun to engage in combat operations.

Russia is advancing at its fastest rate since 2022 despite taking heavy losses, and Ukraine said it had clashed with some of those North Korean troops deployed to Kursk.

Ukrainian forces, with limited military personnel, have lost some of the ground they captured in an August incursion into Kursk that Zelensky said could serve as a bargaining chip.

“Removing targeting restrictions will allow the Ukrainians to stop fighting with one hand tied behind their back,” Alex Plitsas, a senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, said.

“However, like everything else, I believe history will say the decision came way too late. Just like the ATACMS, HIMARS, Bradley Fighting Vehicles, Abrams tanks, and F-16. They were all needed much sooner,” Plitsas added.

Despite Zelensky’s pleas, the White House had been reluctant to allow US-supplied weapons to be used to strike targets deep inside Russia fearing Kremlin escalation.

Republican US Congressional Representative Mike Turner, who chairs the House Intelligence Committee, said that Biden’s decision was long overdue and that there were still too many restrictions on Ukraine.

But he added: “This first step will put pressure on Vladimir Putin as President-elect Trump returns to the White House and works to end this war.”

Kyiv’s other allies have been supplying weapons but with restrictions on how and when they can be used inside Russia, out of concern such strikes could prompt Moscow’s retaliation by drawing NATO countries into the war or threatening nuclear weapons use by the Kremlin.

President Biden meeting with other G20 leaders at Brazil Summit to Discuss Ukraine, Gaza and Trump

President Joe Biden will meet with China’s Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, French President Emmanuel Macron, and other leaders in a much-anticipated meeting of the Group of 20 on Monday.

Although absent from this year’s G20 summit in Brazil, US President-elect Donald Trump is already a major topic of conversation among world leaders coming together to discuss climate change, global trade, and the deadly conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.

“The real topic is Trump’s arrival,” a European diplomat, granted anonymity to speak candidly, told Politico. The G20 “could become a cacophonic echo chamber of the different blocs, rife with rumors, with everyone just listening to his own voice.” Others agreed.

“The Chinese may try to kill off the G20 … It’s something to watch out for, they are careful and advance step by step,” Michel Duclos, a former French ambassador to Syria, told Politico. “In their mindset, what’s important is the China-US relationship, the G7 and the BRICS,” he added.

Regarding Ukraine, allies appear uncertain of what’s next.

“What’s the point of getting our negotiators to deploy considerable energy on geopolitical language?” an official from the Elysée Palace told journalists. “We know that we won’t get any progress at the G20. “We prefer to have nothing than a weakened text” on Ukraine, she added.

Although Ukraine announced that Biden had finally lifted the restrictions on using American-made long-range missiles to strike inside Russia on Sunday, Putin also launched one of the largest attacks on the country’s energy system in months over the weekend just days after speaking to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for the first time in years. Zelensky called the move “Pandora’s box” on Saturday.

The developments are a sign that a realignment is already occurring in the Ukraine alliance, the diplomat told Politico. “Trump’s impact is incredibly visible: There are new ceasefire talks in Lebanon, Scholz is now calling Putin,” he said. “It’s like something powerful just happened and we are starting to see accelerating shock waves across the globe.”