South Korea, which had recently signaled a potential shift toward providing arms to Ukraine, may now hold back as US President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House with plans to negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict, South Korean officials told Bloomberg.
Historically, South Korea has maintained a strict ban on sending lethal weapons to active conflict zones. This stance began to soften in response to reports of North Korean troops supporting Russia, with President Yoon Suk-yeol expressing a willingness to reconsider arms support for Ukraine.
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Shortly after South Korean intelligence confirmed North Korean troop deployments to Russia’s Kursk region, President Yoon said, “If North Korean forces continue to support Russia, we may gradually increase our support for Ukraine, including the potential supply of weapons.”
However, Trump’s possible diplomatic approach to Ukraine could influence Seoul to return to its long-standing non-intervention policy.
A South Korean official told Bloomberg that the government is closely monitoring the political moves that the US president-elect could potentially make regarding the war in Ukraine, possibly altering Seoul’s own strategy.
“It would be pretty awkward for South Korea, not even a member of NATO, to step in at this point if Trump moves into the White House and wants to pull out from the conflict,” said Kim Jung, a political science professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.
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The Yoon administration confirmed it would monitor any military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, emphasizing close coordination with allies.
Ukraine and South Korea both claimed in mid-October that Pyongyang had deployed troops to aid Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, likely as a result of a mutual defense pact signed in June.
In early October, Ukrainian Defense Intelligence (HUR) claimed that Pyongyang had deployed troops to reinforce Moscow’s troops in Ukraine. In addition, media reports, citing HUR, claimed that six North Korean officers had been killed in a missile strike, with 18 more Pyongyang troops having allegedly deserted their positions near Ukraine.
HUR Chief Kyrylo Budanov said on Oct. 18 that Pyongyang was preparing to send 11,000 troops to aid Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Following the reports, Seoul’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) issued satellite images alleging North Korean troops in Russia’s Far East prior to their deployments in Ukraine. Videos circulating on social media around the time also depicted Korean-speaking soldiers in a Russian military base.
On Nov. 4, Andriy Kovalenko, Ukraine’s top counter-disinformation official on the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), confirmed that “the first military units of the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] have already come under fire in Kursk.”
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky plans to send an envoy to Seoul, hoping to secure South Korea’s large stockpile of 155mm artillery shells, critical for Ukraine’s defense efforts.
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