Zaporizhzhia Under Threat? Ukraine Braces for Imminent Russian Assault in Region

Russian forces are likely to launch ground assaults in Ukraine’s southern Zaporizhzhia region within days, Southern Defense Forces spokesman Vladyslav Voloshyn told Reuters.

These attacks could add pressure to Kyiv’s already overstretched defenders in the east. However, it remains unclear whether Russia plans a single offensive or multiple separate assaults, Voloshyn said.

“[The assaults] could begin shortly; we’re not even talking about weeks, we’re expecting it to happen any day,” he added, noting that Russian troops heavily outnumber Ukrainian forces in the region.

Voloshyn also cited Ukrainian intelligence data, which suggests that Russia plans to use armored vehicles and a significant number of drones in the offensive. The increased number of Russian airstrikes in recent weeks, up by 30-40%, also indicates preparations for the assault, he said.

Colonel Vladyslav Seleznyov, former head of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) General Staff press service, told Kyiv Post: “The enemy’s increased activity in the south of Zaporizhzhia is obvious. In this way, they are trying to create conditions that will make their offensive in the south of the Donetsk region more effective.”

Russian forces have recently made inroads into Ukrainian defenses near the village of Levadne in the Zaporizhzhia region, which the DeepState project now marks as occupied. They are now advancing near Novodarivka.

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In the area from Hulyaipole to Orikhiv, Russian forces have concentrated a significant amount of manpower and equipment. Additionally, sorties by Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have become more frequent in this area.

RBC-Ukraine, citing its sources, reported that potential strike directions include Hulyaipole, Orikhiv, and Kamyanske.

Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation under Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, confirmed that Russian troops are preparing for assault operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector, specifically in several settlements. He also said that the Russians may consider the Kurakhove sector as part of their potential operations in the region.

Oleksandr Musienko, head of the Center for Military-Legal Studies, told RBC-Ukraine that after Russia redeployed part of its forces from the Zaporizhzhia sector to the Russian Kursk region, they conducted further personnel rotations and regrouping.

“They have now brought in as many reinforcements as possible and are preparing for offensive and assault actions in the Zaporizhzhia direction,” he said.

Musienko suggests that this move may be aimed at stretching Ukrainian Defense Forces, drawing them away from the Kursk region, and preventing the transfer of additional AFU forces to the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove sectors.

AFU’s Colonel Seleznyov, speaking to Kyiv Post, said that Russian forces are likely attempting to secure more advantageous positions in the Zaporizhzhia region.

“I think what we’re seeing now in the Zaporizhzhia region is a kind of demonstration action aimed at improving the tactical position of Russian troops and strengthening the land corridor currently connecting the Donetsk region with the occupied Crimean Peninsula,” he said.

Is Russia preparing an assault on Zaporizhzhia city?

On Nov. 12, The Economist reported that Russia is preparing for an assault on Zaporizhzhia. According to the report, “Fighting is also beginning in Zaporizhzhia province for what Ukrainian intelligence believes will be an assault on the provincial capital, an important industrial hub.”

However, Seleznyov expressed doubts that Russian forces would attempt to storm the city itself, noting that this would require at least 300,000 troops.

“The attacks in the south of the Zaporizhzhia region are tactical and have not yet evolved into operational-tactical maneuvers. Will the enemy have enough resources to conduct a large-scale offensive? I doubt it,” Seleznyov said.

“Where could they gather several hundred thousand more troops? And they would also need to be equipped and fully supplied for an assault on the regional center. There’s simply nowhere to obtain all of this. So, Zaporizhzhia itself is not at significant risk in the foreseeable future,” he added.

Musienko commented that, from a military standpoint, the Kremlin appears to be planning a diversionary strike combined with offensive actions that may achieve limited tactical gains. “This is not a strategic offensive directly aimed at encircling or capturing the city of Zaporizhzhia,” he said.

Kovalenko also confirmed that Russia lacks the forces necessary to assault the city of Zaporizhzhia directly.

“Instead, the Russians will escalate their plans through military Z-bloggers to spread panic,” he said.

However, Musienko acknowledged that the risks remain serious. According to him, Russia’s current goal is to test Ukraine’s defensive lines, search for vulnerabilities, and continue attempts to advance. He did not rule out a broader military-political objective.

“Perhaps, in this way, the aggressor aims to show that he hasn’t abandoned his intentions to seize Zaporizhzhia. But I think these are mostly plans intended for leverage in possible negotiations later,” Musienko added.

He said that the Russians likely see Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House as a game-changer and are looking for ways to apply pressure, especially through escalation in the Zaporizhzhia sector.

Seleznyov said that Russian troops are actively operating in the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk areas, and are attempting to push Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region. “By the day of Trump’s inauguration, Putin wants to create certain favorable conditions for himself in any negotiations with the US government,” he told Kyiv Post.