ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November, 8, 2024

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be assuming that US President-elect Donald Trump will defer to the Kremlin's interests and preferences without the Kremlin offering any concessions or benefits in return.
• Putin's proposed "new world order" emphasizes an interconnected international system without great powers or security blocs, but the Kremlin's actions contradict and undermine his proposed ideals and principles.
• Putin also acknowledged that Russia is dealing with a serious labor shortage and is largely reliant on migrants to address it.
• Putin doubled down on an existing information operation falsely claiming that Ukraine violated its neutral status in an attempt to justify Russia's illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
• Putin notably attempted to downplay Russia's burgeoning relationship with North Korea during his November 7 Valdai Club statements, likely in an effort to maintain some semblance of a relationship with South Korea and discourage South Korean support for Ukraine.
• The Kremlin continues to build its relationship with Venezuela as a means of consolidating and expanding its influence in the Western hemisphere.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported on November 8 that Ukrainian forces recorded 323 cases of Russian forces using ammunition equipped with chemical agents banned by the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) in October 2024 alone.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Novoivanovka, Kursk Oblast.
• Russian forces recently advanced south of Chasiv Yar, southeast of Kurakhove, and north of Vuhledar.
• Regional Russian authorities continued to promote the expansion of newly established regional territorial defense formations by highlighting efforts to recruit women.

Authors: Grace Mappes, Karolina Hird, Angelica Evans, Nate Trotter, William Runkel, and Frederick W. Kagan.

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