The European Political Community Summit, held on November 7-8 in Budapest, Hungary, brought together European leaders to discuss pressing issues, two of which were prominent at the summit: European governments’ joint reaction to Trump’s election and the issue of further support for Ukraine in the war with Russia.
It was expected that the host country, Hungary, might push for the Russian scenario of ending the war, which involves blocking or limiting aid to Ukraine and persuading it to negotiate on Russian terms. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban tried to block EU assistance to Ukraine in December 2023 amounting to €50 billion from frozen Russian assets. Despite Hungary’s resistance, the allocation was agreed upon by the G7 countries.
Earlier, in July 2024, Orban made an unexpected visit to Kyiv, his first visit to Ukraine since the start of the war. Unlike other European leaders, he did not visit Bucha or other sites of Russian war crimes. During the visit, he urged Ukraine to cease fire on the front line and begin negotiations –supposedly for peace. As expected, the visit ended without any progress. Just days later, Orban also made a surprising visit to meet with Putin in Moscow, drawing strong reactions from European leaders.
Orban has also established good relations with Donald Trump, even congratulating him on his victory when it was still too early to draw definite conclusions from the results.
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Despite the pessimistic outlook, expectations for the summit were high. President Volodymyr Zelensky planned to meet with several EU leaders, and according to authorities, Ukraine and Hungary were preparing a significant bilateral agreement.
Delegation composition and body language
Tensions and uncertainty were evident from the start of the summit, particularly during the arrival of participants. Orban warmly greeted some leaders, such as Serbian’s President Aleksandar Vučić and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
The summit also saw the attendance of Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, the Moscow-oriented head of the Georgian government, a country where recent controversial elections raised concerns with the European Commission, not to mention powerful protests within Georgia. Orban was friendly with him as well.
However, Orban faced his own share of tension. Upon arrival, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis conspicuously turned his back on Orban and spoke with the protocol service for several minutes before greeting the Hungarian leader tersely.
The disputes between Hungary and Romania stem from Budapest’s support for Hungarian autonomy in Romania’s central region, where Hungarian communities declared autonomy unilaterally. Romania sees this as separatism, while Orban emphasizes his support for ethnic Hungarians in Romania, especially during election cycles.
With Zelensky, Orban was friendly and smiling, but Zelensky himself appeared tense.
Later Orban extend his hand, which Zelensky accepted, but he quickly moved on to other summit participants and declined to speak to journalists.
Helping Putin weaken Ukraine?
The summit soon revealed opposing positions. European leaders were unequivocal – Ukraine should continue to receive support.
“The EU’s position is clear – we must strengthen Ukraine because this also strengthens us. We’ve already seen what it means to be weakened,” European Council President Charles Michel told the Ukrainian television channel "We Are Ukraine".
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that “autocrats worldwide have received a very clear message: the rule of law is more important than the rule of force.”
Emmanuel Macron spoke about making Europe more self-reliant in security matters.
President Zelensky addressed preemptive concerns, noting a “productive” conversation with Trump the previous day and warning European leaders against taking steps toward Putin as he deemed them ineffective.
“We need weapons, not support in negotiations. Hugging Putin won’t help. Some of you have hugged him for 20 years, and things only worsen. He thinks only of wars and will not change. Only pressure can contain him,” Zelensky said.
Nevertheless, Orban quickly claimed that without US support, Europe should reconsider its support for Ukraine. While he focused on calls for “peace” at the summit, he was more candid in a Nov. 8 interview on Hromadske Radio.
“The Americans will step out of this war, and Europe cannot finance it alone. More people are starting to believe in adapting to a new reality. Here we are, who have always said there should be peace,” Orban said.
Orban’s team sees a priority in reducing international support for Ukraine, which would weaken Kyiv in a one-on-one confrontation with Moscow. Notably, an adviser to Orban, Balazs Orban, speculated that if Trump takes office, the US may reconsider the G7 agreement on the €50 billion allocation from frozen Russian assets.
“A different approach may lead to different asset management on the American side,” he suggested.
Summit outcome. What’s next?
The Budapest summit concluded without significant outcomes. The anticipated bilateral agreement between Hungary and Ukraine was not signed, as Hungary’s support for Ukraine’s NATO membership was notably absent from the document.
“The document currently does not contain Hungary’s support for Ukraine in NATO. And since that’s the case, this document has not been signed. That’s all there is to it,” Zelensky stated.
Kyiv did not expect much from the summit initiated by French President Emmanuel Macron three years ago but saw value in meeting with critical allies like British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Macron, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. The results of these discussions remain undisclosed.
However, experts inside Hungary say that Orban’s messages should not be perceived as final or necessarily negative for Ukraine. Against the backdrop of issues within Hungary, Orban’s messages have another vector – aimed at a domestic audience.
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