World Briefing: October 27, 2024

The pro-Russian Georgian Dream party is set to extend its control of parliament, according to preliminary results of the country's October 26 elections, but the stark difference in exit polls triggered cries of a "stolen election" from the pro-Western opposition. Georgian Dream, led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, garnered just over 54 percent of the vote in the pivotal vote, with more than 99 percent of districts counted. According to the initial results published by the Central Election Commission on October 27, four opposition parties were positioned to cross the 5 percent threshold to secure seats in parliament. Opposition forces -- the Coalition for Change, Unity-To Save Georgia, Strong Georgia, and For Georgia -- received just over 37 percent of the vote combined. Fueling opposition protests in the vote's aftermath, exit polls conducted on behalf of pro-government and opposition organizations showed significantly different results. Whereas Georgian Dream received 56 percent in the exit poll conducted by pro-government Imedi TV, it did not receive more than 42 percent in the two opposition exit polls. Final results are expected to be announced on October 27 - RFE/RL

Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a linchpin of U.S. space efforts has been in regular contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin since late 2022. The discussions, confirmed by several current and former U.S., European and Russian officials, touch on personal topics, business and geopolitical tensions. At one point, Putin asked the billionaire to avoid activating his StarLink satellite internet service over Taiwan as a favor to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, said two people briefed on the request. Musk has emerged this year as a crucial supporter of Donald Trump’s election campaign, and could find a role in a Trump administration should he win. While the U.S. and its allies have isolated Mr. Putin for recent years, Musk’s dialogue could signal re-engagement with the Russian leader, and reinforce Trump’s expressed desire to cut a deal over major fault lines such as the war in Ukraine - WSJ

Instead of cratering as had been widely predicted with the Western sanctions regime after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Russian economy is running hot and in danger of overheating. Massive military spending including high payments to soldiers has fueled economic growth, as well as high wages and inflation, as companies are forced to match military salaries to attract workers. Russia can afford to fund its war on Ukraine for several more years, according to economists, because of massive oil revenue and Western sanctions failures, particularly the oil price cap put in place by the Group of Seven nations, which has failed to squeeze Russia’s oil income. The economy is overheating partly because of President Vladimir Putin’s need to replace the 20,000 soldiers killed or wounded monthly, according to losses reported by the Institute for the Study of War in June. Russian regional governors are paying unheard of sign-up bonuses to attract soldiers, with Belgorod recently breaking the record with a $31,200 bonus. The result is nearly full employment in Russia and skyrocketing wages - Washington Post

“The big message it (the failure of sanctions) sends to the Kremlin and to Beijing and any other autocratic potential troublemaker is that the West isn’t serious. The West is more interested in making money in the short term than in confronting autocrats. That’s the number one message, and that is deeply harmful”— Robin Brooks, senior fellow at the Brookings Institutio

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Saturday that Iran was determined to defend itself after Israeli warplanes struck military bases and missile sites in several Iranian provinces, killing four soldiers. This declaration came as the international community warned Israel and Iran against escalating the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said on Saturday that Israel had chosen the targets it attacked in Iran based on its national interests, not according to what was dictated by the United States. US President Joe Biden said he hoped the Israeli attack signalled “the end" - France 24

Israel is expected to pass laws targeting the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) next week despite the lack of a replacement agency. The bills seek to majorly restrict the UN agency's activity, although no alternative mechanism to provide its services has been established, Haaretz reported. Israel has accused UN staff of collaboration with Hamas. However UNRWA says only a very small proportion have participated and have been let go.

U.S. authorities have said that Russian actors were behind a fake video circulated on social media that purported to show the destruction of mail-in votes cast for Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump in the swing state of Pennsylvania ahead of the November 5 presidential election. The video, which had millions of views on platforms such as X, after appearing on social media on October 24, depicted a man sifting through ballots from Pennsylvania's Bucks County and tearing up those cast for Trump. The man, who was black, appeared to be ripping up ballots marked for the Republican candidate, while leaving intact ballots marked for Vice President Kamala Harris, who is black. "The Intelligence Community (IC) assesses that Russian actors manufactured and amplified a recent video that falsely depicted an individual ripping up ballots in Pennsylvania, judging from information available to the IC and prior activities of other Russian influence actors, including videos and other disinformation activities," the agencies said in a joint statement - RFE/RL

It’s well past the August holiday peak, but anger against over-tourism in Spain is spilling into the off-season, as holiday-makers continue to seek winter sun. On Sunday locals in the Basque city of San Sebastian plan to take to the streets under the banner: “We are in danger; degrow tourism!” And in November anti-tourism protesters will gather in Seville. Thousands turned out last Sunday in the Canary Islands, so the problem is clearly not going away. This year appears to have marked a watershed for attitudes to tourism in Spain and many other parts of Europe, as the post-Covid travel boom has seen the industry equal and often surpass records set before the pandemic. Spain is expected to receive more than 90 million foreign visitors by the end of the year. The consultancy firm Braintrust estimates that the number of arrivals will rise to 115 million by 2040, well ahead of the current world leader, France. - BBC

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