The International Monetary Fund slashed its economic forecast for Russia’s year on year growth in 2025 from 1.8% to 1.3% of real GDP, according to its October 2024 World Economic Outlook. 

The IMF’s projection for Russian economic growth in 2024 is estimated at 3.6% of real GDP, which is slightly better than the 3.2% growth the IMF forecasted in April. The data for the end of 2023 remained the same at 3.6%. 

The decrease of Russia’s economic growth also impacted the overall forecast for emerging economies. 

“Growth in emerging and developing Europe is projected to remain steady at 3.2% in 2024 but to ease significantly to 2.2% in 2025,” the World Economic Outlook said. 

A drop from 3.6% in 2023 to 1.3% in 2025 is due to slower private consumption and investment, as well as slower wage growth and “reduced tightness in the labor market.” 

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Turkey also impacted slower growth of emerging economies, as the country tightens its monetary and fiscal policy since mid-2023.

Previously, Russian media outlet the Bell reported that the Russian central bank is bracing to raise the key rate again from 19% to 20-21%. Russian corporate lending is increasing and the demand inside the country cannot keep up with the production  and import volumes. Inflation expectations also increased from 12.5% to 13.4% – the highest since December 2023.

Ukraine Should Allow Gas to Transit
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Ukraine Should Allow Gas to Transit

Contract with buyers, take the profits and leave Russia with only subsistence.
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