OPINION: Elections in Moldova and Georgia - A Final Warning for the West

The elections in Moldova and Georgia were not just routine domestic political affairs in small Eastern European countries. They were a battle for the souls of nations caught between two diametrically opposed futures – one tied to the European Union and the other shackled by Russia’s authoritarian constraints. At the heart of this struggle was not just a choice between a pro-European and a pro-Russian candidate but a referendum in which Moldovans decided whether they wanted a future with the EU or with Russia.

In many ways, these elections represent a microcosm of the current geopolitical struggle between democracy and authoritarianism, with Moldova and Georgia on the frontlines of a broader conflict that has potential implications for the entire democratic world. The stakes have never been higher.

The results of these elections are not only a signal to the people of the two countries, but also a warning to NATO, the EU, and the United States that the Kremlin will stop at nothing to destabilize Europe and undermine the liberal order.

Moscow’s interference in the Moldovan elections is neither new nor surprising. For years, Russia has poured enormous resources into the region to corrupt its politicians, manipulate the media, and influence voters. In the run-up to these elections, it became clear that the Kremlin had intensified those efforts. Russian money flowed into the pockets of corrupt officials, political parties, and propaganda campaigns designed to sow fear and disinformation.

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The same recipe was applied in Georgia. Bidzina Ivanishvili, a pro-Russian leader, escalated the situation by threatening his people with war with Russia if they did not submit and accept a government acceptable to Moscow.

The official results, which give victory to Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream Party, only confirm that Moscow will do everything to keep its favorites in power in Tbilisi, especially just as Georgia “threatens” to finally break away from its embrace. Did Europe and the West do all they could to support the forces representing the vast majority of Georgians who envision their future in the EU and NATO? It doesn’t look like it.

Since coming to power, President Maia Sandu, a pro-European candidate, has presented a significant challenge to Moscow. Sandu, who has long advocated closer ties with the EU and NATO, embodies everything the Kremlin fears – a leader who seeks to pull the former Soviet republic out of Russia’s orbit and into the fold of Western democracies. In response, Moscow stepped up its efforts to discredit her by funding disinformation campaigns portraying her as a puppet of the West detached from the “real” concerns of Moldova’s citizens.

The referendum on EU membership was a golden opportunity for Russia. Through corruption, bribery, and its well-oiled propaganda machine, Russian interests tried to convince Moldovans that EU membership would lead to economic collapse, cultural dilution, and an erosion of national sovereignty. Russian-funded media spread false claims, exaggerated the negative consequences of EU integration, and stoked fears of immigration and moral decline. At the same time, Russian oligarchs, interested in retaining the Kremlin’s influence over Moldova, exerted pressure on key political actors to ensure that ties to Moscow remained.

Moldova may be a small country, but its strategic importance is enormous. Moscow’s ability to destabilize Moldova symbolizes its broader strategy across Europe that involves weakening democratic governments, undermining European unity, and restoring a sphere of influence that harks back to the Soviet era.

This is not only Moldova’s problem. The EU, NATO, and the US should view the Kremlin’s attempted interference in Moldova’s and Georgia’s elections as the latest exhibition of its malign intent towards the West, which has largely underestimated Russia’s willingness to undermine democratic institutions, especially on the periphery of Europe.

The warning signs are clear. From Ukraine to Georgia, from the Balkans to Moldova, Russia’s intentions are clear: to subjugate neighboring countries, weaken their sovereignty, and ensure that they remain under the Kremlin’s control. The elections in Moldova and Georgia are another chapter in Russia’s relentless campaign to dismantle the foundations of the post-war European order. The more important question, however, is whether the West will interpret them correctly this time.

One of the most glaring mistakes of recent years has been the West’s tepid response to Russian aggression. The annexation of Crimea, the invasion of eastern Ukraine, the poisoning of political dissidents, and the ongoing cyberattacks on democratic institutions should have prompted a much stronger and more coordinated response from the West. Instead, it has responded with a series of half measures, including sanctions that are often too narrow in scope, diplomatic protests that remain unnoticed in Moscow, and military aid that arrives too little, too late.

The West’s failure to fully confront Russian aggression has emboldened the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin and his inner circle see the West’s indecision as a sign of weakness and exploit it at every opportunity. From Syria to Venezuela, Russia is intervening in conflicts and crises around the world, trusting that the West will remain passive.

The stakes could not be higher now. The elections in Moldova and the associated referendum remind us once again that Russia’s ambitions extend far beyond Ukraine. Helping the pro-Russian Georgian Dream to remain in power serves the same purpose.

If Russia is not decisively defeated in Ukraine, it will continue its campaign of subjugation and destabilization throughout the region, with Moldova and/or Georgia as its next target.

The West must wake up and understand that diplomacy alone will not stop Russia. The democratic world is fighting an asymmetric war against an adversary that is prepared to use all available methods – propaganda, corruption, assassinations, cyberattacks, and military force – to achieve its goals. The only way to counter such an adversary is to show more strength and determination.

First, sanctions against Russia must be significantly expanded and tightened. It is no longer enough to target just a few oligarchs or some Russian companies. The West must impose comprehensive economic sanctions that will cripple the Russian economy and cut off the flow of funds that finance the Kremlin’s foreign policy.

This should include expanding sanctions to several sectors of the Russian economy, including energy, finance, and technology, as well as blacklisting a much wider range of Russian individuals, including all members of Putin’s inner and wider circles. For example, how is it possible that the largest company that is primarily financing the war and Putin’s imperial adventures, Gazprom, is not under sanction?

Second, visa requirements for Russian citizens must be drastically tightened. The Russian public must feel the full impact of their government’s actions. The Kremlin has maintained its power in part by shielding ordinary Russians from the consequences of their government’s actions against other states. That must change. By restricting travel and access to the West, the Russian public will feel the cost of Putin’s aggression and may ultimately turn against the regime.

Third, the West must provide greater support to countries like Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine that are on the front lines of this geopolitical conflict. This includes providing financial assistance to strengthen democratic institutions, improving defense capabilities, and ensuring that these countries have the tools necessary to counter Russian disinformation and corruption.

The West must finally understand that the fight for Europe’s future is taking place not only in Brussels, Berlin, and Paris, but also in places like Chisinau and Tbilisi. If the democratic world does not rise to this challenge, Russia will continue its destabilization campaign, and Moldova or Georgia will not be the last victim. Serbia and the Balkans are already in Moscow’s focus, and Russian money for corruption and destabilization has been flowing there for a long time.

Ultimately, the demonstration and proof of superior power - economically, politically, and militarily - is the only way to defeat Russia. The West needs to confront the Kremlin’s aggression head-on. This is no longer just Putin’s war. This is a war against the democratic values that form the foundation of the West. The fight for the future of Moldova, Georgia, and the Balkans is a fight for the future of Europe.

This message clearly underlines the need for decisive action, which is the key to preserving stability and freedom - and it is always the right time to show strength when these values are under threat!

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.